PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Doinko]

GRAF looks good as well

[snow_wizard]

Bloody impressive!  Figure probably half of the ensemble members are even colder.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Things can work out with that.  At least this is tapping into the higher latitudes.

I think Matt found an example of a blast for us with the Hudson Bay vortex... maybe 1989?

This is an odd situation.   The ECMWF doesn't look even remotely interesting at day 10 and yet the EPS and control run both get there in the 10-15 day period.  

[snow_wizard]

EPS control is sure on board!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wonder if that pesky Hudson Bay vortex might become an issue again?

Seems like upstream might be more of an issue with some wishy washy amplitude, although we’re soon transitioning to where amplitude isn’t quite as big an factor/asset.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Matt found an example of a blast for us with the Hudson Bay vortex... maybe 1989?

This is an odd situation.   The ECMWF doesn't look even remotely interesting at day 10 and yet the EPS and control run both get there in the 10-15 day period.  

The MJO forecast is solidly in our camp now.  I like our chances.

[Doinko]

I like the CFS

[Slushy Inch]

Chance of over six inches is now 10-20 percent. Chance much higher on GEFS.

[RentonHill]

 

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seems like upstream might be more of an issue with some wishy washy amplitude, although we’re soon transitioning to where amplitude isn’t quite as big an factor/asset.

How so? Because disrupted/breaking down PV?

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The MJO forecast is solidly in our camp now.  I like our chances.

In the Ag Weather update on Thursday... they said that MJO phase 7 in February with ENSO neutral tends to put the trough offshore.    I guess the rapidly weakening trade winds made them lean towards using the neutral version rather than Nina.     No idea if that is right.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Positive trends. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Positive trends. 

Lots of cold and snowy solutions on the EPS. No frigid blasts but I think (almost) everyone on here just wants some non marginal snow to finish the season. Long way to go. Lots can change. Lots will change. Lots lots lots lots

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Matt found an example of a blast for us with the Hudson Bay vortex... maybe 1989?

This is an odd situation.   The ECMWF doesn't look even remotely interesting at day 10 and yet the EPS and control run both get there in the 10-15 day period.  

I’d guess we start seeing more interesting euro runs tomorrow or Monday at the latest

[Doinko]

Last year on this day we hit 67 degrees.

Two years ago the cold east wind was starting to blow and snow would start falling in the afternoon.

[Deweydog]

21 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

How so? Because disrupted/breaking down PV?

Not really a PV thing I don’t think. As we get into late February the continental influence becomes less of a factor and and it becomes more of a top-down exercise. The long wave pattern is still very much relevant but we can often do just as well or better in a more progressive pattern compared to what would be a more traditional midwinter blocking pattern.

[Slushy Inch]

Big improvements. Maybe a sub freezing high. I  love to see pink members now showing up.

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the Ag Weather update on Thursday... they said that MJO phase 7 in February with ENSO neutral tends to put the trough offshore.    I guess the rapidly weakening trade winds made them lean towards using the neutral version rather than Nina.     No idea if that is right.

 

We're still solidly in a Nina though.  I think people are so sure the Nina is over they aren't seeing reality.

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not really a PV thing I don’t think. As we get into late February the continental influence becomes less of a factor and and it becomes more of a top-down exercise. The long wave pattern is still very much relevant but we can often do just as well or better in a more progressive pattern compared to what would be a more traditional midwinter blocking pattern.

Interesting. thanks

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're still solidly in a Nina though.  I think people are so sure the Nina is over they aren't seeing reality.

I think it's fading now.   Compare the current SSTA map to one year ago... not even close.   

[RentonHill]

About to be Westminster up in this biiiitch

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

About to be Westminster up in this biiiitch

Even that little cold shot around V Day has gotten pretty impressive now.

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not really a PV thing I don’t think. As we get into late February the continental influence becomes less of a factor and and it becomes more of a top-down exercise. The long wave pattern is still very much relevant but we can often do just as well or better in a more progressive pattern compared to what would be a more traditional midwinter blocking pattern.

1951!

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Big improvements. Maybe a sub freezing high. I  love to see pink members now showing up.

Late Feb / early March is capable of delivering some pretty top drawer stuff.  In the modern era you have 1962, 1971, 1989, and 2011.  Even the Feb 2018 cold shot was very solid.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1951!

That thing was an absolute beast.

[snow_wizard]

Teleconnections on the 12z EPS are very good.  PNA very minus and EPO a little minus.

[TacomaWx]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're still solidly in a Nina though.  I think people are so sure the Nina is over they aren't seeing reality.

You’re pretty much the only person I’ve seen who thinks nina is going to persist. Pretty much all the info I see is that it’s going to fade. It’s extremely unlikely that it goes into nina for a 4th year in a row…or that we’re even still in nina conditions by summertime. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

You’re pretty much the only person I’ve seen who thinks nina is going to persist. Pretty much all the info I see is that it’s going to fade. It’s extremely unlikely that it goes into nina for a 4th year in a row…or that we’re even still in nina conditions by summertime. 

I was just talking about now.  The Nina will probably fade, but I have yet to see solid evidence of it going into a warm episode.  Phil did a post a while back saying he thinks people are going a bit over the top on calling for the demise of La Nina as well.  I think I'm as good as the pro mets on that particular topic.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just talking about now.  The Nina will probably fade, but I have yet to see solid evidence of it going into a warm episode.  Phil did a post a while back saying he thinks people are going a bit over the top on calling for the demise of La Nina as well.  I think I'm as good as the pro mets on that particular topic.

You can see a warm blob starting in the east Pacific. El Niño is coming eventually, I’ve come to terms with it. All can be hoped for is a neutral year with something crazy and nothing as bad as 2015.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

You can see a warm blob starting in the east Pacific. El Niño is coming eventually, I’ve come to terms with it. All can be hoped for is a neutral year with something crazy and nothing as bad as 2015.

Way too one dimensional on your reasoning.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way to one dimensional on your reasoning.

We are barely in La Niña already. Will be neutral very soon.

[MossMan]

Between all of the snow maps looking good for my area, and Andrew heading down the slightly negative road this morning I do believe everything is lining up perfectly! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Between all of the snow maps looking good for my area, and Andrew heading down the slightly negative road this morning I do believe everything is lining up perfectly! 

How was I heading down a negative road? The event Monday/Tuesday looks great. Just a comment on the 12z GFS. EPS is rock solid. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Rubus leucodermis is a type of tree. Some people may have them in their yards. There's also rubus occidentalus.

A type of bramble actually. Have never seen a tree-sized one.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way too one dimensional on your reasoning.

We're almost guaranteed to not see another Nina in 2023-24, if that is what you're taking issue with. Whether it's neutral or a Nino remains to be seen.

[Doinko]

GFS doesn't have the organized low anymore, hoping it comes back on the 00z

 

[Doinko]

RDPS is pretty good for the valley on the other hand

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS doesn't have the organized low anymore, hoping it comes back on the 00z

 

I like the light snow that hangs out over central sound.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS doesn't have the organized low anymore, hoping it comes back on the 00z

 

It will, just further [five letters, starts with N].

[MWG]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter storm watch posted!