September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

You are beating this joke into a bloody mess.

Gross.

[Phil]

Roar.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Roar.

 

Maybe post the summer forecast contest results.

[Phil]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not good.

Feeder bands just fire-hosing the coast on the trip down.

Works in favor for my cousins place but still keeping eye on the storm surge to the North of the storm.

Prayers this thing continues to weaken and not get a quick energy boost before landfall

Yeah, it still shows wind gusts over 100 mph as it moves down the SC coastline. Also still dumps a ton of rain.

[Geos]

Low clouds and drizzle this morning. 

 

Discussion on Florence. Basically no increase in winds, but the eye is closed off now, drop in pressure, less dry air now, and it is almost over the Gulf Stream.

 

236
WTNT41 KNHC 131456
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

The satellite and radar presentations of Florence have improved
somewhat this morning, with a 20-25 nmi wide eye closing off in the
radar data from the Morehead City and Wilmington WSR-88D Doppler
weather radars. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft investigating the hurricane this morning has not yet found
any flight-level or SFMR winds to support more than about 80 kt at
the surface thus far, even though the pressure has decreased to 955
mb. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 90 kt, given
that there are peak Doppler velocity values up to 110 kt with
average values of 95-97 kt at 15,000 ft in the northern eyewall
region, an area of the hurricane that the reconnaissance aircraft
has not yet sampled. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite
impressive.

Florence has been gradually slowing down this morning, and the
initial motion estimate is now 315/09 kt. The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday as the
ridge to the north of Florence weakens due to a weak shortwave
trough dropping slowly southward from the Ohio Valley. On days 3-5,
Florence is forecast turn toward the northwest and north around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and move across western
South Carolina on Sunday, across western North Carolina and eastern
Tennessee on Monday, and then move up the spine of the Appalachians
as an extratropical low after the cyclone merges or interacts with a
frontal system. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous one, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models
TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Florence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the
hurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12
hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior
to landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some
due to upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall
occurs, rapid weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is
expected to due land interaction and Florence's slow forward speed
of 5 kt or less. However, intense rainbands are expected to develop
over the Atlantic waters and keep moving along the coast and inland,
likely producing strong wind gusts through Saturday night.

Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large
hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where
the center of Florence moves.

[Jesse]

Dropped down to 49 overnight with dense fog at times. Mostly cloudy and 52 currently, with showers around.

[Farmboy]

There's been so much rain here that I think the trees might asphyxiate.

[Blizzard777]

Looks like a typical NW morning out there

54*

Lazy Circulation just off the Oregon coast compared to the vigorous active low off NC

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some leaves changing color bigtime in the last 2 days. Fall is here early!! More drips and drops this morning under cloudy skies. This would be a fun pattern in Dec.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Calculated my rainfall for the water year Oct. 1 2017 - Present. 60.70". About 15" below average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This hurricane ended up so much weaker than it was being modeled a couple days ago. Definitely some good news.

[Jesse]

Calculated my rainfall for the water year Oct. 1 2017 - Present. 60.70". About 15" below average.

Keep those facts outta here. I want more vanecdotes about how wet it is in the Olympic rainforest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Keep those facts outta here. I want more vanecdotes about how wet it is in the Olympic rainforest.

 

Yeah, and the individual months of November, January, and April were above average! So should be no problem right?!

 

It looks like October 2017 was about average with rainfall. All other months were less than 60% of normal. May was the driest on record, as was July with 0.00", though that tied about 12 other years, so not that big of a deal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning could be our first regional soaking 1/4"+ in NW Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some troughing next weekend on the 12z GFS. SCORE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could we please dial this back up again in 3 months? 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Calculated my rainfall for the water year Oct. 1 2017 - Present. 60.70". About 15" below average.

Just calculated that same total for Snoqualmie Valley... currently just under 77 inches for the water year. That is about 17 inches above normal.

 

Probably well over 90 inches up here if the valley is at 77 inches.

 

The grass turned dry for about 6 weeks... that is about it. No water issues here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just calculated that same total for Snoqualmie Valley... currently just under 77 inches for the water year. That is about 17 inches above normal.

 

Probably well over 90 inches up here if the valley is at 77 inches.

 

The grass turned dry for about 6 weeks... that is about it. No water issues here.

 

What are other parts of W. WA? 

[ShawniganLake]

There's been so much rain here that I think the trees might asphyxiate.

You’re probably right. I don’t think trees in a rainforest are accustomed to a couple inches of rain during a weeks time.

[Blizzard777]

It’s hanging in there!

[Jesse]

Really stellar model trends lately. I’m sure the party will eventually end so enjoy it while it lasts.

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really stellar model trends lately. I’m sure the party will eventually end so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

It is nice. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It’s hanging in there!

Looks like it's about to make it's turn for Wilmington. The storm surge/flooding is going to be incredible with this one due to how huge she is and how slow she's coming in.

 

Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits

 

Recon fixes (orange dots) of #Florence's position indicate what may be the start of the expected left turn toward the Wilmington area. The storm is in the process of slowing down, as expected. Landfall may not occur until tomorrow afternoon. There is a very long ride ahead.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/52e742.jpg

[Jesse]

It is nice.

The exchange rate for a couple weeks of general troughing seems to be about 4 months of blowtorching.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO shows Florence clipping Cape Fear then heads down the SC coastline before making landfall around Georgetown. EURO still persistent with more off an offshore track with Florence.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

[Phil]

Right front quadrant of the eyewall is projected to cross this location late tonight. High tide (~11:30pm EDT) is gonna be wild.

 

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

[Phil]

The green gazebo on the farthest end of the pier was already ripped off by a wave, and this near low tide, and well before any storm surge (which arrives tonight).

 

I hope to god nobody else ventures out on that structure today. There were folks there earlier that could have easily been killed.

[Geos]

Right front quadrant of the eyewall is projected to cross this location late tonight. High tide (~11:30pm EDT) is gonna be wild.

 

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

 

Wow, some of those waves are already tall enough to reach the floor of the pier already .

[Phil]

[Blizzard777]

You jinxed it.

[Phil]

First hurricane squall brings sustained winds of 54mph and a gust to 86mph at the Bogue Pier station. Not bad.

 

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

[Geos]

Really nasty squall on the Bogue Inlet Cam right now.

 

Rain bands have reached Wilmington.

 

[Deweydog]

You jinxed it.

 

I can't stop watching. I keep expecting to see Nancy Pelosi to appear suddenly on a jet ski with a replacement flag.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

First hurricane squall brings sustained winds of 54mph and a gust to 86mph at the Bogue Pier station. Not bad.

 

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

Really nasty squall on the Bogue Inlet Cam right now.

 

Rain bands have reached Wilmington.

 

Florence could re-intensify back into a major hurricane before landfall.

 

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

Another thing to note is that the ECMWF has a good initialization of #Florence and intensifies it in the next 12-18 hours. The 850 hPa winds of 125-knots are more indicative of a major hurricane.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1040309477738782722

[Phil]

Florence could re-intensify back into a major hurricane before landfall.

 

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

Another thing to note is that the ECMWF has a good initialization of #Florence and intensifies it in the next 12-18 hours. The 850 hPa winds of 125-knots are more indicative of a major hurricane.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1040309477738782722

Hopefully this is the one time the ECMWF s**ts the bed.

[Phil]

Sustained at 65mph.. ~ 25mph jump in 1hr.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The exchange rate for a couple weeks of general troughing seems to be about 4 months of blowtorching.

 

So we should expect some more troughing again sometime around the start of February. Makes sense...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kaepernick smiled broadly when the flag ripped.