September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

This is fun.

[Geos]

SEA has gotten completely screwed again... been a running theme since May.   

 

Massive disparity between the immediate Seattle area and all the areas around Seattle which have been repeatedly hit.    Way more than the usual difference once again.   SEA is at .23 for the month.  

 

Normal rainfall in my area in September is just over 4 inches... approaching 3 inches here now after today's deluge.   This will likely end up a wetter than normal month here.

 

Gotten screwed here too. 0.37" for the month so far. Just getting rain shadowed the last few days. 

[Jesse]

Over .60” here in the last hour. Much of it in a heavy downpour about 15 minutes ago. Flooding streets and rumbles of thunder. Now another rainbow.

[Winterdog]

SEA has gotten completely screwed again... been a running theme since May.   

 

Massive disparity between the immediate Seattle area and all the areas around Seattle which have been repeatedly hit.    Way more than the usual difference once again.   SEA is at .23 for the month.  

 

Normal rainfall in my area in September is just over 4 inches... approaching 3 inches here now after today's deluge.   This will likely end up a wetter than normal month here.

I’ve had 2.6” here. Crazy!

[TT-SEA]

Down to Cat 2.

[Jesse]

After 2800+ miles in three days, I am finally in the urban snow capital of the Snohomish County lowlands.

 

I guess I can get back into the swing of things by getting excited over flurries and fantasy inches on the final frame of the GFS.

Welcome back!

[Phil]

[Tyler Mode]

0.26" today with 1.11" for the last 3 days combined.  Easily enough to get things green again, save for the trees that are dead.  Lots of cedar trees have died. Visible coming northbound on 205 after crossing the bridge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.01" of rain today. Monthly total of 0.41" now. Salem up to 0.08" on the month. Nice to see some isolated areas get over 1". Unfortunately SLE and SEA were more representative of the region overall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to Cat 2

 

Not surprising.

[Esquimalt]

Hurricane Florence looking ever stronger on the NAM.  The outcome will be terrible if it follows the model pattern of following the Carolina shoreline and then making landfall in S. Carolina.   

 

We'll see what happens in 24 hours 

[The Swamp]

This hurricane is all Trumps fault somehow.

 

I just know it.

 

Either Trump or the Russians.

[Phil]

Hurricane Florence looking ever stronger on the NAM. The outcome will be terrible if it follows the model pattern of following the Carolina shoreline and then making landfall in S. Carolina.

 

We'll see what happens in 24 hours

That will depend on what happens when the PV streamer evacuates the southern outflow channel in ~ 6hrs. I’m not sure a NAM-esque recovery to Cat4 intensity is likely at this point, but I guess anything is possible over those warm Gulf Stream waters.

[Esquimalt]

That will depend on what happens when the PV streamer evacuates the southern outflow channel in ~ 6hrs. I’m not sure a NAM-esque recovery to Cat4 intensity is likely at this point, but I guess anything is possible over those warm Gulf Stream waters.

Yeah that's what I'm not quite understanding.  Wasn't it supposed to strike NC as a Cat 4 a day or so ago on the models?  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah that's what I'm not quite understanding.  Wasn't it supposed to strike NC as a Cat 4 a day or so ago on the models?  

 

Some unexpected shear. These things often will weaken a little more than expected right before landfall. 

[El_Nina]

A surprise deluge just bumped the total today from 0.11" up to 0.38". I think its green up season.

[Phil]

Yeah that's what I'm not quite understanding. Wasn't it supposed to strike NC as a Cat 4 a day or so ago on the models?

Yeah, it was, but thankfully that PV streamer was more stubborn than modeled, hence it provided both subsidence and some southwesterly shear to weaken the cyclone.

 

However, that feature is now leaving the outflow axis, so I’m not sure what will happen. I’m not well versed in mesoscale forecasting. But if I had to guess, I would predict a formative eyewall closure and some modest restrengthening either tonight or tomorrow, perhaps back into the 120-130mph range? Don’t hold me to it, though.

[Esquimalt]

Yeah, it was, but thankfully that PV streamer was more stubborn than modeled, hence it provided both subsidence and some southwesterly shear to weaken the cyclone.

 

However, that feature is now leaving the outflow axis, so I’m not sure what will happen. I’m not well versed in mesoscale forecasting. But if I had to guess, I would predict a formative eyewall closure and some modest restrengthening either tonight or tomorrow, perhaps back into the 120-130mph range? Don’t hold me to it, though.

Do you think it has the potential to return to cat 4 strength?  

[Phil]

Some unexpected shear. These things often will weaken a little more than expected right before landfall.

Tell that to hurricane Harvey, Wilma, etc. I think much of it depends on how well-ventilated the storm is on approach.

 

Healthy outflow channels to evacuate mass can make a world of difference.

[Phil]

Do you think it has the potential to return to cat 4 strength?

Sure it does, but I’m skeptical it has enough time to get that far. First it needs to restructure the southern portion of its core, then contract it while avoiding an ERC, all while making a left turn tonight under a strong ridge to the north.

 

Then again, the Gulf Stream bathwater and loss of the PV streamer could be just enough. Who knows.

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA has gotten completely screwed again... been a running theme since May.   

 

Massive disparity between the immediate Seattle area and all the areas around Seattle which have been repeatedly hit.    Way more than the usual difference once again.   SEA is at .23 for the month.  

 

Normal rainfall in my area in September is just over 4 inches... approaching 3 inches here now after today's deluge.   This will likely end up a wetter than normal month here.

I was thinking the same thing. I have also noticed the last few times it has rained at SEA the surrounding weather stations have all reported more rain than SEA which seems odd. There were also several times where I watched a rain cloud pass directly over SEA and nothing was officially reported while all the nearby private stations within a mile reported rainfall amounts.

[Jesse]

I was thinking the same thing. I have also noticed the last few times it has rained at SEA the surrounding weather stations have all reported more rain than SEA which seems odd. There were also several times where I watched a rain cloud pass directly over SEA and nothing was officially reported while all the nearby private stations within a mile reported rainfall amounts.

I heard that Cliff Mass has been camped out under a tarp by the sensor the last 7 months and says it’s good.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS does away with the idea of rolling down the coast of South Carolina.... also shows strengthening tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Look like today will end up being the rainiest at PDX since April 7th.

[Timmy]

00Z GFS does away with the idea of rolling down the coast of South Carolina.... also shows strengthening tomorrow.

brings summer back here in a big way around days 9-10!

[Jesse]

brings summer back here in a big way around days 9-10!

Meteorological summer ended 12 days ago. By then even astronomical summer will be over.

[Phil]

Uh oh..big burst of lightning in the eyewall w/ a series of hot towers going up over the last hour or so. The inner eyewall appears to be the focus, rather than the outer one, which could herald significant strengthening in relatively short order. Think of the spinning ballerina analogy.

[andrewr]

I live right by the airport and can attest to the fact this area has missed out on the rain. The .23" figure seems reasonable given my observations this month.

[ShawniganLake]

0.58” for the month here. My lawn is still brown. Hasn’t rained more than a few hundredths the past couple days.

[Blizzard777]

On our drive home tonight as I left party sunny Tigard I saw the the dark skies east of Portland as I crossed the Fremont bridge. The dark sky stretched from North to South as far as I could see. Two different worlds !

We did hit a good batch of rain in the Kalama area on up through Kelso.

.22 in the gauge here in Federal Way ...According to the nest cam had a decent shower graze the area around 630pm

[TT-SEA]

0.58” for the month here. My lawn is still brown. Hasn’t rained more than a few hundredths the past couple days.

 

You might have lots of rain this weekend when you don't want it.

 

Looks like the reservation trick to make it nice over here does not work if we really plan to go... 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and sunny over there and rain on the west side.    

 

Sorry about that.  

[ShawniganLake]

You might have lots of rain this weekend when you don't want it.

 

Looks like the reservation trick to make it nice over here does not work if we really plan to go... 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and sunny over there and rain on the west side.

 

Sorry about that.

Haha. That’s okay. Is what it is.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z GFS does away with the idea of rolling down the coast of South Carolina.... also shows strengthening tomorrow.

The 00z EURO makes landfall at Wilmington but then still wants to ride down the Carolina coastline.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

[TT-SEA]

The 00z EURO makes landfall at Wilmington but then still wants to ride down the Carolina coastline.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Not good.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still only at .08" for the month here. Occasional decent showers but only amounted to a few hundredths.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 00z EURO makes landfall at Wilmington but then still wants to ride down the Carolina coastline.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Feeder bands just fire-hosing the coast on the trip down.

[Blizzard777]

The 00z EURO makes landfall at Wilmington but then still wants to ride down the Carolina coastline.http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Works in favor for my cousins place but still keeping eye on the storm surge to the North of the storm.

Prayers this thing continues to weaken and not get a quick energy boost before landfall

[Deweydog]

Uh oh..big burst of lightning in the eyewall w/ a series of hot towers going up over the last hour or so. The inner eyewall appears to be the focus, rather than the outer one, which could herald significant strengthening in relatively short order. Think of the spinning ballerina analogy.

Spinning ballerinas and Aunt Flo... Bad combination.

[Jesse]

Spinning ballerinas and Aunt Flo... Bad combination.

You are beating this joke into a bloody mess.