September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is definitely wetter for Tuesday...

 

[Phil]

For Phil... a sample of our east winds here during the December 2008 blizzard from the city of Snoqualmie which is right next to North Bend on the valley floor. This is about 5 miles from here. Insane east wind video... everyone who wants to get pumped for winter should watch this one!

 

Well, if I wasn’t craving winter before, I sure am now. That’s some intense stuff right there. It literally looks like a lake-effect squall or nor’easter deformation band.

[Phil]

If you do not know where the Gorge is and what causes our east winds then you have literally been ignoring the discussion on here every winter for years. We talk about it for pages and pages sometimes.

 

Its like saying you have watched every episode of Seinfeld but you don't remember a character named Kramer.

Baloney. It’s nothing like that, and you know it.

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 per the 00Z ECMWF... glad to be on the West Coast in this pattern.    

 

[TT-SEA]

Baloney. It’s nothing like that, and you know it.

 

 

Its a huge part of our discussion on here from late fall through the winter and into early spring.    And its a huge factor in Portland's weather.

 

Just like the east wind here through Snoqualmie Pass and the Fraser River outflow wind up in Vancouver and Bellingham.    The Fraser outflow wind is involved in almost all of our arctic outbreaks.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its a huge part of our discussion on here from late fall through the winter and into early spring.    And its a huge factor in Portland's weather.

 

Just like the east wind here through Snoqualmie Pass and the Fraser River outflow wind up in Vancouver and Bellingham.    The Fraser outflow wind is involved in almost all of our arctic outbreaks.   

 

It just proves he doesn't really pay attention to our analysis.

[TT-SEA]

It just proves he doesn't really pay attention to our analysis.

That is what I am saying. He is here for an audience on the macro pattern stuff and that is great... but he does not really give a crap about our weather or microclimates.

[Phil]

[Phil]

That is what I am saying. He is here for an audience on the macro pattern stuff and that is great... but he does not really give a crap about our weather or microclimates.

Sounds like you have me all figured out.

[TT-SEA]

Fine, I digress. Please forgive my complete and utter lack of intelligence.

 

 

I did not say you are not intelligent.   I said you don't really pay attention to our local weather and the key factors in our weather... because we discuss that all the time.  

[Blizzard777]

I believe you. My buddy flys a black Cessna on contract for the NSA to spray fluoride as a means to sedate the reptilians who have hidden themselves amongst our population.

Lizard people ?

[Blizzard777]

47*

[Front Ranger]

0z EPS was the coolest yet for the PNW and West overall next week.

[Farmboy]

I believe you. My buddy flys a black Cessna on contract for the NSA to spray fluoride as a means to sedate the reptilians who have hidden themselves amongst our population.

 

It's baffling how so many people remain ignorant about ongoing geoengineering research.  

 

From University of Oxford's website:

 

The Oxford Geoengineering Programme was founded in 2010 as an initiative of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford.

Geoengineering - the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth's natural systems to counteract climate change - is a contentious subject and rightly so.

The Oxford Geoengineering Programme seeks to engage with society about the issues associated with geoengineering and conduct research into some of the proposed techniques. The programme does not advocate implementing geoengineering, but it does advocate conducting research into the social, ethical and technical aspects of geoengineering. This research must be conducted in a transparent and socially informed manner.

 

The University of Oxford is involved in three major projects on geoengineering funded by the UK Research Councils.

They are: The Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals (IAGP) in partnership with The University of Leeds, Cardiff University, Lancaster University, University of Bristol, University of East Anglia, The Tyndall Centre and the UK Met Office; Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) in partnership with The University of Bristol and Cambridge University; and Climate Geoengineering Governance (CGG), a recently announced Oxford-led project in partnership with The University of Sussex and University College London which will examine the governance and ethics of geoengineering.

 

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) or Solar Geoengineering

SRM techniques aim to reflect a small proportion of the Sun’s energy back into space, counteracting the temperature rise caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which absorb energy and raise temperatures. Some proposed techniques include:

• Albedo enhancement. Increasing the reflectiveness of clouds or the land surface so that more of the Sun’s heat is reflected back into space.
• Space reflectors. Blocking a small proportion of sunlight before it reaches the Earth.
• Stratospheric aerosols. Introducing small, reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect some sunlight before it reaches the surface of the Earth.

 

 

http://www.geoengineering.ox.ac.uk/

[TT-SEA]

0z EPS was the coolest yet for the PNW and West overall next week.

 

 

Definitely notching!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lizard people ?

NO silly, that would be weird. It's Reptilian people.

[Phil]

GAAAAHHHHHH!!!

 

[MossMan]

GAAAAHHHHHH!!!

 

Europeans joining the American 18z drunken party!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GAAAAHHHHHH!!!

 

Wowzers! Going to have to wake up extra early now at 4am to see the 6z EURO this winter!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GAAAAHHHHHH!!!

 

Euro model riding 4x daily? Gonna have her walking side to side.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks more ridgy by the middle and end of next week than previous runs.

[TT-SEA]

Very nice... hope the 12Z GFS is right and not wandering aimlessly.   

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very nice... hope the 12Z GFS is right and not wandering aimlessly.

 

Lord knows that ridge isn't wandering aimlessly. It knows exactly where it's headed this cold season :-(

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows an extremely dry and warm start to October. Nice change of pace.

[ShawniganLake]

[Farmboy]

Lord knows that ridge isn't wandering aimlessly. It knows exactly where it's headed this cold season :-(

Yup, it looks cemented in place, unlikely to move, barring some unforeseen push of biblical proportions..

[Jesse]

Yup, it looks cemented in place, unlikely to move, barring some unforeseen push of biblical proportions..

It actually breaks down and we get a clipper like system a few days after that map’s time.

 

But it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a very warm and ridgy October this year. Probably warm and sunny the first half then mild and wettish with dirty ridging the second half. Seems to be the game plan for most of our warmer Octobers.

[Phil]

It actually breaks down and we get a clipper like system a few days after that map’s time.

 

But it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a very warm and ridgy October this year. Probably warm and sunny the first half then mild and wettish with dirty ridging the second half. Seems to be the game plan for most of our warmer Octobers.

The wavetrain during the first half of October looks to be slow-evolving..ridges on the coasts, cold vortex in Canada with the Rockies/Plains trough and Aleutian Low.

[Jesse]

The wavetrain during the first half of October looks to be slow-evolving..ridges on the coasts, cold vortex in Canada with the Rockies/Plains trough and Aleutian Low.

This doesn’t really support or negate my forecast either way.

[Front Ranger]

52F47513-8D25-4840-8581-294A24773897.png

 

Head fake #2!

[Phil]

This doesn’t really support or negate my forecast either way.

So not necessarily a blowtorch in the West. If anywhere is going to torch before 10/15 it will be the SE-US.

[Jesse]

So not necessarily a blowtorch in the West. If anywhere is going to torch before 10/15 it will be the SE-US.

Seems like a southeast ridge used to teleconnect better to western troughing. Nowadays, in this era of global warming and more expansive warm air masses in the mid-latitudes, it seems there will more often be western ridging and a strong SE ridge simultaneously.

[TT-SEA]

It actually breaks down and we get a clipper like system a few days after that map’s time.

 

But it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a very warm and ridgy October this year. Probably warm and sunny the first half then mild and wettish with dirty ridging the second half. Seems to be the game plan for most of our warmer Octobers.

 

 

A warm October with some dirty ridging and AR-type events in the second half of the month would probably be better for Oregon than a cold and drier than normal October.

[Phil]

Head fake #2!

Remember when the monthly ONI was supposed to be 1.5C right now?

[Jesse]

A warm October with some dirty ridging and AR-type events in the second half of the month would probably be better for Oregon than a cold and drier than normal October.

Definitely a lot of potential for your area to absolutely drown in that sort of pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a lot of potential for your area to absolutely drown in that sort of pattern.

 

 

Indeed.   It is expected.   

[Jesse]

Indeed. It is expected.

Hopefully you’ve got some garbage bags handy to go over the Halloween costumes.

[Jesse]

This split flow pattern is giving the models fits. 12z GFS looks like an outlier for late in the week. There are probably just as many members advertising deep troughing at that time as there are ridging.

 

Love seeing all the wet ensemble members!

 

[Front Ranger]

Remember when the monthly ONI was supposed to be 1.5C right now?

 

That would be pretty extreme for September, like on the way to super Nino strong. 

 

Impressive rebound for +ENSO regardless. October will be very telling.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully you’ve got some garbage bags handy to go over the Halloween costumes.

 

 

Are you intentionally liking your posts?   

 

Umbrellas usually work fine for Halloween.   We have also had some very wet Halloween days that were actually dry for a couple hours in the evening.   Always nice when it works out that way.