September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Very thin layer of ground fog this morning down in the valley...

 

[Blizzard777]

The warmth at PDX has been well advertised for the last week or so. Yesterday also hit 80s. Today probably will too.

and I turned off my daughters sprinkler system down there last week....silly me! Hoping the moisture arrives down there next week

[Farmboy]

How about that 6z run. Pretty active looking next week. 850s drop to -5c into Whatcom county

 

 

That was a fun run.  So far, 12z is coming in colder than last night's 00z but not as cold as the 6z...

[TT-SEA]

That was a fun run. So far, 12z is coming in colder than last night's 00z but not as cold as the 6z...

12Z GFS is much drier through Wednesday morning compared to the last the couple runs.

 

And then shows a very wet system arriving one week from today! Looks like the 18Z run yesterday.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON completely disagrees with the 12Z GFS and is almost totally dry for the entire run with ridging building in during the middle of next week.

 

12Z GEM is also quite dry for the entire run as well.  

[Phil]

I think it's far more cowardly to hide behind PM when taking out your frustrations on someone, knowing you're less likely to be held accountable for it than something said publicly.

As opposed to spilling that OT s**t out on the forum so everyone has to read it? This forum isn’t supposed to be a soap opera or a grade school rumor mill, man.

[Front Ranger]

Notches are back! Seasons they are a changin'!

 

Glad someone caught it. 

[Deweydog]

12Z ICON completely disagrees with the 12Z GFS and is almost totally dry for the entire run with ridging building in during the middle of next week.

 

12Z GEM is also quite dry for the entire run as well.

Oh, Tim. You're the Timmiest!

[Front Ranger]

As opposed to spilling that OT s**t out on the forum so everyone has to read it? This forum isn’t supposed to be a soap opera or a grade school rumor mill, man.

 

I don't really care. I wasn't the one spilling anything from PMs on here. I just don't see what the big deal is if someone mentions that someone else sent them a PM. What was private about what was shared? Nothing. Why get all dramatic about it? Just one more silly thing to make a big deal out of, when it's not. 

 

And hate to break it to you, but whether you involve PMs or not, this forum is often a soap opera and people make grade school assumptions about others all the time. 

[TT-SEA]

Oh, Tim. You're the Timmiest!

 

 

Just looking for corroborating evidence!  

 

The FV3-GFS is stuck at 90 hours.    Its refusing to testify.   <_>

 

I really don't care too much about a Wednesday rainstorm... just something to track.

[Jesse]

As opposed to spilling that OT s**t out on the forum so everyone has to read it? This forum isn’t supposed to be a soap opera or a grade school rumor mill, man.

Yeah, I was always under the impression that one of the purposes of PMs was to resolve issues with other members without burying a bunch of weather/Seahawks related posts. I can still remember when “take it to PM” was a common retort by mods when two members were bickering. Maybe that is anachronistic now.

 

But, of course, when said PMs are blown out of proportion and dragged back into the main forum, it kind of defeats the purpose. And, as the last several pages have illustrated, drags things on for much longer.

[Phil]

I don't really care. I wasn't the one spilling anything from PMs on here. I just don't see what the big deal is if someone mentions that someone else sent them a PM. What was private about what was shared? Nothing. Why get all dramatic about it? Just one more silly thing to make a big deal out of, when it's not.

 

And hate to break it to you, but whether you involve PMs or not, this forum is often a soap opera and people make grade school assumptions about others all the time.

You clearly thrive on the drama here, so I’m not surprised you’d want it to continue unabated.

[TT-SEA]

FV3-GFS finally running again.  

 

It shows a much weaker system on Wednesday with a ridge building in behind it.  

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I was always under the impression that one of the purposes of PMs was to resolve issues with other members without burying a bunch of weather/Seahawks related posts. I can still remember when “take it to PM” was a common retort by mods when two members were bickering. Maybe that is anachronistic now.

 

But, of course, when said PMs are blown out of proportion and dragged back into the main forum, it kind of defeats the purpose. And, as the last several pages have illustrated, drags things on for much longer.

 

You have a history of using PMs to "tear people a new one", as Dewey put it. No need to hide from it. It is what it is, doesn't make you a bad person. 

 

Not sure why Tim brought it up yesterday when he did, but I don't have a problem with someone reporting it publicly if they've been abused through PMs. They actually don't exist for that purpose.

 

#metoo

[jakeinthevalley]

Moving to Springfield full-time on Thursday. Quite a bit different than Monmouth despite being just 60 miles away. I'll still be up here for holidays and if the models show the snow goodies pulling a 2008 on Eugene/Springfield, you bet your @ss I'm coming up here ahead of time too.

 

Headed down to Eureka, CA for one day/night.  Gonna hit the In-N-Out and then stroll through the Redwoods  Any recommendations on good food in Eureka?

Samoa Cookhouse has an awesome, family style breakfast.

[Front Ranger]

You clearly thrive on the drama here, so I’m not surprised you’d want it to continue unabated.

 

Stop being so dramatic. 

 

I made valid points you are ignoring just to post drivel like this.

[Phil]

Yeah, I was always under the impression that one of the purposes of PMs was to resolve issues with other members without burying a bunch of weather/Seahawks related posts. I can still remember when “take it to PM” was a common retort by mods when two members were bickering. Maybe that is anachronistic now.

 

But, of course, when said PMs are blown out of proportion and dragged back into the main forum, it kind of defeats the purpose. And, as the last several pages have illustrated, drags things on for much longer.

This, 100%.

 

Really helps cut down on the flamboyant flatironing.

[Front Ranger]

FV3-GFS finally running again.  

 

It shows a much weaker system on Wednesday with a ridge building in behind it.  

 

Do we have any updated stats on accuracy for this version vs the old one? Seems like someone reported a while back that the new one has scored better since the spring, but can't remember for sure.

[Jesse]

You have a history of using PMs to "tear people a new one", as Dewey put it. No need to hide from it. It is what it is, doesn't make you a bad person.

 

Not sure why Tim brought it up yesterday when he did, but I don't have a problem with someone reporting it publicly if they've been abused through PMs. They actually don't exist for that purpose.

 

#metoo

See, here you are trying to prolong the drama as much as possible, just like Phil said.

 

It takes two to tango. I have had some pretty nasty things said to me via PM as well. Such is the nature of things when two people are at odds. I recovered without having to resort to town crier. Whatever the case, it’s best to leave it off the main forum whenever possible, IMO. As I said earlier, I always thought that was their whole purpose.

[Deweydog]

Words cut like a knife.

 

(But it feels so nice)

[Phil]

See, here you are trying to prolong the drama as much as possible, just like Phil said.

 

It takes two to tango. I have had some pretty nasty said things to me via PM as well. Such is the nature of things when two people are at odds. I recovered without having to resort to town crier. Whatever the case, it’s best to leave it off the main forum whenever possible. As I said earlier, I always thought that was their purpose.

Plus I believe you can block certain members from sending you PM’s if they’re abusive.

 

There, problem solved!

[Jesse]

Plus I believe you can block certain members from sending you PM’s if they’re abusive.

 

There, problem solved!

Wallowing in drama is much more fun. Plus, there is so much potential to discredit whoever you are arguing with by bringing up PMs. You can make them sound however you want and no one can prove otherwise. I mean how could anyone resist?

[TT-SEA]

See, here you are trying to prolong the drama as much as possible, just like Phil said.

 

It takes two to tango. I have had some pretty nasty said things to me via PM as well. Such is the nature of things when two people are at odds. I recovered without having to resort to town crier. Whatever the case, it’s best to leave it off the main forum whenever possible, IMO. As I said earlier, I always thought that was their whole purpose.

 

It just seems dishonest to try and portray yourself as above-the-fray in the public forum while frantically attacking me behind the scenes.  

 

That is all.      That is why I felt compelled to mention it here.  

[Jesse]

It just seems dishonest to try and portray yourself as above-the-fray in the public forum while frantically attacking me behind the scenes.

 

That is all. That is why I felt compelled to mention it here.

I apologize for thinking we had enough of a relationship that I could level with you regarding issues I had, without having it thrown back in my face and conveyed as “frantic attacks”. Lesson learned.

[Front Ranger]

Do we have any updated stats on accuracy for this version vs the old one? Seems like someone reported a while back that the new one has scored better since the spring, but can't remember for sure.

 

Did a little research and it looks like updated verification scores were just released and summarized. Sounds like the FV3-GFS has indeed shown improvement over the current model, although it still has some weaknesses/biases: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/

[Phil]

[Phil]

Did a little research and it looks like updated verification scores were just released and summarized. Sounds like the FV3-GFS has indeed shown improvement over the current model, although it still has some weaknesses/biases: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/

Unsurprisingly, the ECMWF/EPS still kicks it’s arse.

 

On the whole, it’s amazing how good the ECMWF is.

[Farmboy]

FV3-GFS finally running again.

 

It shows a much weaker system on Wednesday with a ridge building in behind it.

It might be worth noting that it's also wetter with the Sunday night/Monday morning system than 12z GFS..

[Front Ranger]

See, here you are trying to prolong the drama as much as possible, just like Phil said.

 

It takes two to tango. I have had some pretty nasty things said to me via PM as well. Such is the nature of things when two people are at odds. I recovered without having to resort to town crier. Whatever the case, it’s best to leave it off the main forum whenever possible, IMO. As I said earlier, I always thought that was their whole purpose.

 

Phil is the one who decided to butt in to the convo and has continued it as well. Takes two to tango applies here as well.

 

Nasty words can be a one way street. Either way, I don't think PMs should be used for that purpose. But I suppose it's better than going public with them? 

[Deweydog]

Guys, take it to PM. Seriously.

[TT-SEA]

I apologize for thinking we had enough of a relationship that I could level with you regarding issues I had, without having it thrown back in my face and conveyed as “frantic attacks”. Lesson learned.

Much of that was not friendly discussion... you just let it rip. And I have not said anything at all until now and did not show what you have written over the years. It just seems dishonest though when you mock me in public forum and try to pretend you are above all of this.

[Phil]

Phil is the one who decided to butt in to the convo and has continued it as well. Takes two to tango applies here as well.

 

Nasty words can be a one way street. Either way, I don't think PMs should be used for that purpose. But I suppose it's better than going public with them?

That’s the whole point of the forum, brother.

 

And I was only requesting that this crap vacate the public domain for a more private one. I wasn’t perpetuating drama.

 

Whatever, I’m done with this one.

[TT-SEA]

It might be worth noting that it's also wetter with the Sunday night/Monday morning system than 12z GFS..

Actually does not look wet in that period either... about the same as the GFS.

 

Here is the GFS on Monday morning...

 

 

 

And the FV3-GFS at the same time...

 

[Farmboy]

Actually does not look wet in that period either... about the same as the GFS.

It's more widespread with the little moisture there is, just not in the Puget sound basin or PDX area..

[Phil]

[Geos]

12Z GFS is much drier through Wednesday morning compared to the last the couple runs.

 

And then shows a very wet system arriving one week from today! Looks like the 18Z run yesterday.

 

 

Heading up to BC that night. Looks like a cool and wet one. 

 

So much for a sunny day here...

[Front Ranger]

Unsurprisingly, the ECMWF/EPS still kicks it’s arse.

 

On the whole, it’s amazing how good the ECMWF is.

 

I can't find the direct comparison scores?

 

It does look like the new version has much improved 500mb verification, as well as tropical cyclone forecasting overall, although hurricane intensity was too weak. Overall thoughts from the NWS summary:

 

●The synoptic overview statisistcal scores are impressive

●Most other statistical scores show neutral performance or slight improvement , although cold 2-m temps over Alaska are a concern

●Overall hurricane track improvement and elimination of extreme intensification are huge advantages to the FV3GFS system

●Removing the tropical vortex relocation seems to have an overall positive impact on TC track, with Joaquin being a notable case

●Positive impact from FV3GFS on HWRF and HMON, especially in North Atlantic basin

●Largest concern is the clear tendency of FV3GFS medium range runs to be too progressive – believe that this is the most important point to communicate to forecasters

●Other concerns include some SST issues, extreme heat, occasional spurious secondary low centers,  and a slightly drier precip bias for mid and high thresholds

[TT-SEA]

Heading up to BC that night. Looks like a cool and wet one. 

 

So much for a sunny day here...

 

 

Too early to say.   

 

No other model looks like the 12Z GFS in that period... at least not yet.  

[Phil]

I can't find the direct comparison scores?

 

It does look like the new version has much improved 500mb verification, as well as tropical cyclone forecasting overall, although hurricane intensity was too weak. Overall thoughts from the NWS summary:

 

●The synoptic overview statisistcal scores are impressive

●Most other statistical scores show neutral performance or slight improvement , although cold 2-m temps over Alaska are a concern

●Overall hurricane track improvement and elimination of extreme intensification are huge advantages to the FV3GFS system

●Removing the tropical vortex relocation seems to have an overall positive impact on TC track, with Joaquin being a notable case

●Positive impact from FV3GFS on HWRF and HMON, especially in North Atlantic basin

●Largest concern is the clear tendency of FV3GFS medium range runs to be too progressive – believe that this is the most important point to communicate to forecasters

●Other concerns include some SST issues, extreme heat, occasional spurious secondary low centers, and a slightly drier precip bias for mid and high thresholds

I have access to the verification scores (will see if I can find a way to post them).

 

I’ll put it this way..the difference between the FV3-GFS and ECMWF is actually larger than the difference between the old GFS and the FV3-GFS. The aggregate of all improvements was relatively small, all things considered.