September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Too early to say.

 

No other model looks like the 12Z GFS in that period... at least not yet.

I have a feeling things end up cool and wet at times next week.

[Front Ranger]

I have access to the verification scores (will see if I can find a way to post them).

 

I’ll put it this way..the difference between the FV3-GFS and ECMWF is actually larger than the difference between the old GFS and the FV3-GFS. The aggregate of all improvements was relatively small, all things considered.

 

Well, that's disappointing. But not surprising. Would have been monumental if the new GFS somehow managed to leap frog the Euro.

 

Though of course, it's worth noting that the FV3 is an experimental model and is being tested in development of the actual official next version of the GFS. They're still trying to work out the bugs, so to speak.

[TT-SEA]

Well, that's disappointing. But not surprising. Would have been monumental if the new GFS somehow managed to leap frog the Euro.

 

Though of course, it's worth noting that the FV3 is an experimental model and is being tested in development of the actual official next version of the GFS. They're still trying to work out the bugs, so to speak.

 

 

I am surprised that we still have weather models in the US.    I thought Trump would just be dictating what the weather will do by now... and promising us that it will always be beautiful and attacking Mother Nature and NWS employees for fake news when its anything other than beautiful.  

[Deweydog]

[Front Ranger]

I am surprised that we still have weather models in the US.    I thought Trump would just be dictating what the weather will do by now... and promising us that it will always be beautiful and attacking Mother Nature and NWS employees for fake news when its anything other than beautiful.  

 

That's what this convo was lacking...a political spin!

[ShawniganLake]

I am surprised that we still have weather models in the US. I thought Trump would just be dictating what the weather will do by now... and promising us that it will always be beautiful and attacking Mother Nature and NWS employees for fake news when its anything other than beautiful.

Is he okay? Whenever he has been on TV recently, his speech seems slurred?

[Jesse]

Much of that was not friendly discussion... you just let it rip. And I have not said anything at all until now and did not show what you have written over the years. It just seems dishonest though when you mock me in public forum and try to pretend you are above all of this.

 

BS. I have tried again and again to find common ground with you via PM. You are being unbelievable right now.

[TT-SEA]

BS. I have tried again and again to find common ground with you via PM. You are being unbelievable right now.

 

 

To be fair... you have also done that.

 

But you run really hot at times.

[Geos]

Under an island of clouds...

Only 54 currently.

 

[Jesse]

12z ensembles look coolish and wettish. 

 

Still feels like the potential for a continued torch is there the next few weeks, though. A lot of it seems to depend on whether the amplified ridge offshore cuts off and floats toward the pole. That seems to be a common theme in the warmer solutions.

[Front Ranger]

U need 2 move closer to the airport. Only 71 there.

 

Won't help. Heat follows Phil everywhere. Anywhere he is will have the highest DP in the state, guaranteed.

[Jesse]

PDX running +2 on yesterday. A run at 85 seems pretty doable each day now through Friday.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much drier for WA on Sunday... stationary rain band is weaker and farther north than on the 00Z run which was seriously wet for much of western WA.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is basically dry from Everett to Eugene through Monday at least... and the offshore ULL is moving into northern CA with rain down there on Monday afternoon.  

[Geos]

Wow, below zero readings with that cold shot next week!

 

 

Cascades get in on the snow action on this run.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not show much lowland rain (south of Everett) through Tuesday... but it does show activity in the Oregon Cascades on Tuesday afternoon.   

 

[Kayla]

This current and upcoming pattern is quite similar to last year at this time. Kind of bizarre that we have somehow defaulted back to it again.

[MossMan]

[Phil]

U need 2 move closer to the airport. Only 71 there.

So, sacrifice half of my snow and double my rent? Lol.

 

But yeah, living in a forested river gorge surrounded by water on three sides certainly doesn’t help us in the dewpoint department.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much drier through Wednesday morning compared to the last the couple runs.

 

And then shows a very wet system arriving one week from today! Looks like the 18Z run yesterday.

 

 

 

12Z ECMWF is just a little bit drier on Wednesday than the 12Z GFS...

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Under an island of clouds...

Only 54 currently.

 

I’m at the end of those clouds....just spotty down here with lots of sun breaking through

58*

[Phil]

In all seriousness, why don’t you move out here? You always seem to really enjoy your visits out this way!

It’s actually a possibility once I finish school.

 

Half of my extended family already lives out there, and I’d never have to worry about heat or humidity again.

[TT-SEA]

Please stop this nonsense, Tim.

You keep it going.

 

Don't say that its all equal and I randomly launch into expletive-laced tirades like you do to me.

 

Just drop it.

[Phil]

Is he okay? Whenever he has been on TV recently, his speech seems slurred?

I’ve noticed that as well. And he’s gained weight.

 

I have a feeling that he might not make it through a second term.

[Phil]

12z ensembles look coolish and wettish.

 

Still feels like the potential for a continued torch is there the next few weeks, though. A lot of it seems to depend on whether the amplified ridge offshore cuts off and floats toward the pole. That seems to be a common theme in the warmer solutions.

This has been an exceptionally difficult pattern for me to attempt to predict. But if I were to wager, I’d be more worried about a torch pattern developing sometime next month, and sticking around for 3-4 weeks before yielding to a potential Arctic event during the middle or later part of November.

 

Every potential analog year I can find (except 1994/95) featured cold troughing across NW-North America during November and/or December.

 

And 1994/95 is a terrible polar-stratosphere analog (dearth of O^3 with an extremely weak BDC, following Pinatubo). If we repeated 1994/95 with today’s stratosphere, it would probably turn out much different.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is nice... basically dry for the next 10 days and turning warm again next week.

 

Way more rain in Redding CA than in North Bend WA.

 

Its shows 1.3 inches of rain in the next 10 days in San Jose and barely .10 here in the same period.

[Kayla]

Lots of rain for Arizona! Nice to see NorCal get a good soaking as well.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/20j4tpu.png

[TT-SEA]

Lots of rain for Arizona! Nice to see NorCal get a good soaking as well.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/20j4tpu.png

Way more rain in San Diego and Phoenix than here!

 

Impressive for this time of year.

[MossMan]

Lots of low cloud grayness this morning...feels pretty textbook late September. Took the pic this morning before work. Been working in the yard for about two hours each evening before dark and continuing to cut back the jungle that was my overgrown landscaping. It’s amazing how much more light it’s allowing into the house.

[Phil]

We have a pretty strong +IOD right now. Even without a coherent niño signal in terms of ONI/niño 3.4, this SSTA configuration (cold Indo-Pacific, warm W-IO/dateline) Will favor a niño-esque forcing structure as the cold season wavetrain matures.

 

Arrows I drew indicate anomalous upward/downward motion (z-component). Not the zonal/meridional ones.

 

[TT-SEA]

Lots of low cloud grayness this morning...feels pretty textbook late September. Took the pic this morning before work. Been working in the yard for about two hours each evening before dark and continuing to cut back the jungle that was my overgrown landscaping. It’s amazing how much more light it’s allowing into the house.

 

Sunny from the start here... deep blue sky and 64 now.  

[Phil]

Lots of low cloud grayness this morning...feels pretty textbook late September. Took the pic this morning before work. Been working in the yard for about two hours each evening before dark and continuing to cut back the jungle that was my overgrown landscaping. It’s amazing how much more light it’s allowing into the house.

Are the sick trees in the background (on the 1st photo) on your property?

 

If so, then I’d recommend pruning or removing them before they come down.

[TT-SEA]

The West Coast finger of warmth is alive and well next week on the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

[Phil]

[Geos]

Impressive seeing all that rain forecasted in the southwest from a tropical system. 

GFS drives the low right over Phoenix at 138 hours at 985 mb. 

A fairly windy system still.

 

[Farmboy]

Probably gonna be a lot of flash flooding. The focus of the heaviest rain looks like northwest of Phoenix metro judging from that map above posted by Tim.

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

[BLI snowman]

Impressive seeing all that rain forecasted in the southwest from a tropical system. 

GFS drives the low right over Phoenix at 138 hours at 985 mb. 

A fairly windy system still.

 

 

AZ hasn't had a tropical storm since Nora in 1997.  At face value that would probably be the strongest tropical system on record in that region.

[Front Ranger]

Lots of rain for Arizona! Nice to see NorCal get a good soaking as well.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/20j4tpu.png

 

This would be fantastic for parts of the SW still in extreme drought.