September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

That is how I feel too when you come after me.   I have no way of defending myself.   I try to prove to Andrew that Richland is not just a trash heap and trailer park... but my real motivation is supposedly  to get you about urban sprawl.    What???   I never thought of that... ever.    But I am an evil person and in complete denial about my nefarious intentions.    I have no idea where that even comes from and there is nothing I can say to convince you otherwise.  

 

You are certainly correct there. Anyway, there is really no need to hash this out any further. Fred is going to send us all awful PMs that will leave us emotionally crippled forever.

[TT-SEA]

You are certainly correct there. Anyway, there is really no need to hash this out any further. Fred is going to send us all awful PMs that will leave us emotionally crippled forever.

 

You are completely wrong about my intentions with the Richland thing... it was 100% for Andrew.   But if you want to create boogey men in your mind then I can't help you.    That is on you.     

[Jesse]

One thing I do enjoy about warm days this late in the season is how quickly things drop off in the evening. Already in the low 60s here.

[Jesse]

00z is running!

 

Hope it's wet!

[TT-SEA]

One thing I do enjoy about warm days this late in the season is how quickly things drop off in the evening. Already in the low 60s here.

 

Gross!!  Its so gross.   

[Jesse]

Must be imagining those boogeymen again.

[TT-SEA]

Must be imagining those boogeymen again.

 

 

No... that was definitely related to your comment yesterday.       

[Phil]

Nobody has brought up Jesse's PMs more than deweydog. You should probably send him a PM about it.

 

It's a good thing we have righteous Phil to tell us how to handle ourselves on a public forum.

What is the purpose of this post? Useless.

[Brennan]

I come on here on rare occasion these days.... and most of the time I don't know if I'm reading something from 8 years ago, or from last night.... 

But man, the weather has been absolutely beautiful these last couple of evenings. I need to start posting some pics.  

[Deweydog]

I come on here on rare occasion these days.... and most of the time I don't know if I'm reading something from 8 years ago, or from last night....

 

But man, the weather has been absolutely beautiful these last couple of evenings. I need to start posting some pics.

Our climate is pretty static.

 

And so is our weather.

[MossMan]

Down to 53. What a lovely day it was!

[Jesse]

00Z GFS looks to phase the cutoff low back into the jet closer to us, over the weekend.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks like the 12Z ECMWF.

[Deweydog]

00z GFS was sexually assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the new EPS weeklies jumped on the +PNA train in a big way from 10/5 onwards. Looks like a sequel to the pattern of 2014/15.

 

Then a gargantuan +NAO to open November with ridging across the entirety of the NH middle latitudes .

 

Its so consistently warm across the West through all of October.

[Jesse]

Think I was talking about the high likelihood of a blowtorch October a few weeks ago.

[Phil]

Its so consistently warm across the West through all of October.

Part of that might be the smoothing effect running 52 ensemble members out that far, but yeah it was a notable shift vs the last run.

[Deweydog]

Think I was talking about the high likelihood of a blowtorch October a few weeks ago.

I think that was Jim.

[Phil]

I hope the early November part is wrong, though. That’s an ugly image..might be too graphic to post here.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

[Warning: graphic content. Viewer discretion advised].

 

This is, by far, the ugliest, most disgusting pattern I’ve ever seen the EPS weeklies spit out.

 

 

 

Baffin Island is good... so its all good!   

 

Does anywhere else on the planet really matter?

[Phil]

Baffin Island is good... so its all good!

 

Does anywhere else on the planet really matter?

Gonna be tough to fit the entire human population on that island once AGW melts the rest of the world.

 

Might need a lottery or something.

[Front Ranger]

What is the purpose of this post? Useless.

 

Easy to throw this around. What was the purpose of your response? 

 

To answer your question, it was to point out the irony of you lecturing others on here on proper forum etiquette. 

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, the new EPS weeklies jumped on the +PNA train in a big way from 10/5 onwards. Looks like a sequel to the pattern of 2014/15.

 

Then a gargantuan +NAO to open November with ridging across the entirety of the NH middle latitudes .

 

How have the weeklies been performing?

 

One big difference I'm seeing compared to 2014 at this point is the tendency for high latitude blocking (there's more to this than the NAO, of course).

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a stationary band of rain over WA on Sunday that just dissolves without moving south. Sunny again across the region by Monday.

[TT-SEA]

Also shows copious rain in SoCal on Tuesday while its totally dry and sunny in WA and OR. I believe that is a tropical disturbance being pulled northward.

[ShawniganLake]

65/44 here today. With bright blue skies and a breezy NE wind.

[Phil]

Easy to throw this around. What was the purpose of your response?

 

To answer your question, it was to point out the irony of you lecturing others on here on proper forum etiquette.

What are you talking about? All I did was share my opinion that bringing up PMs on the public forum is a cowardly thing to do.

 

Do you have a problem with that? Or are you just arguing for the sake of arguing, as usual?

[Phil]

How have the weeklies been performing?

 

One big difference I'm seeing compared to 2014 at this point is the tendency for high latitude blocking (there's more to this than the NAO, of course).

So-so. Better than the GEFS/CFS, though.

 

I usually mention the NAO because it’s the principal mode of NH weather/climate variability. The vast majority of multidecadal, seasonal, and subseasonal pattern variability is expressed through the NAO’s empirical orthogonal function.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Moving to Springfield full-time on Thursday. Quite a bit different than Monmouth despite being just 60 miles away. I'll still be up here for holidays and if the models show the snow goodies pulling a 2008 on Eugene/Springfield, you bet your @ss I'm coming up here ahead of time too.

 

Headed down to Eureka, CA for one day/night.  Gonna hit the In-N-Out and then stroll through the Redwoods  Any recommendations on good food in Eureka?

[Geos]

Much clearer this morning. 48 deg.

[Front Ranger]

What are you talking about? All I did was share my opinion that bringing up PMs on the public forum is a cowardly thing to do.

 

Do you have a problem with that? Or are you just arguing for the sake of arguing, as usual?

 

I already shared my opinion in another post. I don't see the big deal in mentioning the fact that someone has sent you PMs. Not the same as disclosing exactly what they said in those PMs.

 

I think it's far more cowardly to hide behind PM when taking out your frustrations on someone, knowing you're less likely to be held accountable for it than something said publicly.

[Front Ranger]

0z EPS is a notch cooler days 7-10 for the PNW.

 

On the other hand, the FV3-GFS, which seems to have been one of the more consistent models lately, is maintaining a pretty warm/ridgy spell for that period.

[Blizzard777]

44* and the full moon is trending west

[ShawniganLake]

How about that 6z run. Pretty active looking next week. 850s drop to -5c into Whatcom county

[Jesse]

How about that 6z run. Pretty active looking next week. 850s drop to -5c into Whatcom county

[Blizzard777]

Friday looking warm and Pdx in 80s again! Wet weather perhaps starting next Monday down south. Not sure what’s going on with the Redding fire but hope this bit of moisture delivers

[Jesse]

Friday looking warm and Pdx in 80s again! Wet weather perhaps starting next Monday down south. Not sure what’s going on with the Redding fire but hope this bit of moisture delivers

The warmth at PDX has been well advertised for the last week or so. Yesterday also hit 80s. Today probably will too.

[Deweydog]

0z EPS is a notch cooler days 7-10 for the PNW.

 

On the other hand, the FV3-GFS, which seems to have been one of the more consistent models lately, is maintaining a pretty warm/ridgy spell for that period.

Notches are back! Seasons they are a changin'!