September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really hate alder trees in general... they are so messy. They actually start dropping leaves in June whenever there are a couple warm days.

 

I was looking at some pictures from one year ago this week and the alder trees here were already brown and close to bare. They were heading that way this year as well in late August but the recent rain and completely stopped the leaf drop and they look green again.

 

I assume this is good sign for fall color in this area. Could be quite a show now that everything is so well watered again.

 

 

We are already approaching peak color as the drought as caused the trees to turn weeks ahead of time this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Driving from Florence to Eugene on Friday, it looked like mid-October from a color perspective, all the trees had turned. 

[TT-SEA]

We are already approaching peak color as the drought as caused the trees to turn weeks ahead of time this year.

 

I am guessing a late October peak here as usual. There are just a few trees starting to show color. We had some yellow leaves on the trees in late August but they have since blown off and the rain has made it look much greener again.

 

 

 

For comparison... here is 10/27 last year:

 

[Jesse]

18z shows offshore flow and temps in the mid-upper 80s on Friday.

 

Marky Mark also has 85 on two days this week.

[Front Ranger]

When was the last time the Browns won the Super Bowl?  Or even been?  Or won a playoff game?  To not be a fan of the local team is one thing, but to insult them is just classless, especially from a fan of a team that has never even been to the Bowl, not even once.  To make it worse, they are located in Cleveland.  That is an insult in itself.  

 

Lots of snow in Cleveland!!

[Deweydog]

Forekast Kontest!

[BLI snowman]

We are already approaching peak color as the drought as caused the trees to turn weeks ahead of time this year.

Was gonna say, seems like it's shaping up to be one of the earlier peaks I can remember. Drought sucks.

[Phil]

I have the same problem with anthracnose decimating a couple of London plane trees here in SoCal -- and it certainly isn't because of humidity. They've already lost most of their leaves, and autumn (or what passes for autumn in SoCal) is still a long way off.

Interesting. Do you know what cultivar you have? The anthracose attacks are less of an issue for our trees during hot/dry summers like 2012.

 

This year is easily the worst I’ve ever seen it.

[MossMan]

Not much of a fall leaf changeover here yet. The Cedars are starting to shed but that’s right on schedule.

[Phil]

FWIW, global lower-middle tropospheric temperatures are currently the coldest (for the date) since 2008, which was coming off a strong La Niña.

 

 

[Jesse]

Forekast Kontest!

Eye’m downe!

[TT-SEA]

Not much of a fall leaf changeover here yet. The Cedars are starting to shed but that’s right on schedule.

Our big cedar tree just dumped a large amount of needles on our driveway during the weekend storminess.

[TT-SEA]

Not much of a fall leaf changeover here yet. The Cedars are starting to shed but that’s right on schedule.

Just took this pic... grass along the roads sure has greened up here.

 

[Deweydog]

Eye’m downe!

I'd put it together but I'm busy AF.

[MossMan]

Just took this pic... grass along the roads sure has greened up here.

Same here. This pic was taken this morning at the end of my driveway. And yeah the only traffic was the deer traffic!

[TT-SEA]

Well... the 00Z GFS took away most of the meaningful precip later in the weekend and next week.   Some rain in WA on Sunday but not much at all in Oregon.

 

The 00Z GEM abandoned its wet solution for Sunday/Monday as well.

 

The 00Z ICON is much more robust with the offshore low early next week but the precip mostly stays offshore through 180 hours.

[Esquimalt]

Well... the 00Z GFS took away most of the meaningful precip later in the weekend and next week. Some rain in WA on Sunday but not much at all in Oregon.

 

The 00Z GEM abandoned its wet solution for Sunday/Monday as well.

 

The 00Z ICON is much more robust with the offshore low early next week but the precip mostly stays offshore through 180 hours.

In other news, no good developments. Thanks Tim for the great news!

[TT-SEA]

In other news, no good developments. Thanks Tim for the great news!

Well... its good news for those of us who have received copious rain this month and know what lies ahead soon enough.

 

For reference... its the blue and purple areas on this map.   No surprise.   Always the same area.

 

[Esquimalt]

Well... its good news for those of us who have received copious rain this month and know what lies ahead soon enough.

 

For reference... its the blue and purple areas on this map. No surprise. Always the same area.

 

Well...I’m not in one of those areas. In fact some would argue that Victoria is still in drought. I am not happy about this development, but the model riding goes on.

[TT-SEA]

Well...I’m not in one of those areas. In fact some would argue that Victoria is still in drought. I am not happy about this development, but the model riding goes on.

 

 

I wish the map showed southern BC as well.

 

I can tell from the San Juan Islands that shadowing has been more persistent than usual there... red dots of dry surrounded by a large area of very wet.  

[Esquimalt]

I wish the map showed southern BC as well.

 

I can tell from the San Juan Islands that shadowing has been more persistent than usual there... red dots of dry surrounded by a large area of very wet.

Yes it has been. Very boring for me and very unhealthy for all the plant life living round town. The NW flow never helps us in victoria.

 

Furthermore, it’s absolute blowtorch time on the 00Z clownrange. Lol!

[Jesse]

We got our month of cooler than average weather with a handful of rainy days. Now we must pay our dues with another 3-4 months of torching and systems that underperform everywhere but the Snoqualmie Valley.

[Phil]

Westerly shear (oncoming +QBO) has officially descended to 30mb. Will probably be a mixed QBO winter, with westerlies above 40mb, and residual easterlies below 40mb.

[TT-SEA]

We got our month of cooler than average weather with a handful of rainy days. Now we must pay our dues with another 3-4 months of torching and systems that underperform everywhere but the Snoqualmie Valley.

 

Snohomish and Skagit counties are kicking our butt down here.   

[BLI snowman]

Blythe isn't looking so bad right now.

 

We suck

[Deweydog]

Haha! Pessimism.

[Jesse]

Blythe isn't looking so bad right now.

 

We suck

 

Basically one punch in the gut after another around here since late April.

 

The last few weeks had me thinking we had maybe finally turned a corner, then this disgusting ridging showed up on the models. Now it's here and it won't be going anywhere for awhile.

[Phil]

We got our month of cooler than average weather with a handful of rainy days. Now we must pay our dues with another 3-4 months of torching and systems that underperform everywhere but the Snoqualmie Valley.

Quit being so selfish. I haven’t seen a continental airmass since April.

[TT-SEA]

We have discovered that a drought-proof area does exist in the PNW.   And its not on the top of Mt. Rainier.    In fact... housing prices are ridiculously high in this drought-proof area indicating that it is in high demand.    

[BLI snowman]

Haha! Pessimism.

Just want some good rain. Don't care about the temps.

 

Models have a very 1976 look to them. Good chance this fall/winter will be drier than that one. Warmer too.

[Deweydog]

Basically one punch in the gut after another around here since late April.

 

The last few weeks had me thinking we had maybe finally turned a corner, then this disgusting ridging showed up on the models. Now it's here and it won't be going anywhere for awhile.

So gullible...

[Jesse]

So gullible...

 

Your response to that 100% serious post of mine definitely tells me so!

[Phil]

Just want some good rain. Don't care about the temps.

 

Models have a very 1976 look to them. Good chance this fall/winter will be drier than that one. Warmer too.

How was 1977/78 out there? On paper, that year is looking like one of the better analogs (cooler globe aside).

[BLI snowman]

How was 1977/78 out there? On paper, that year is looking like one of the better analogs (cooler globe aside).

Front loaded. Big snowstorm in November.

[Phil]

Front loaded. Big snowstorm in November.

Hmm..that seems to fit with the tendencies in other plausible analog years (1985/86, 1996/97, 2006/07, 2014/15, etc, in addition to 1977/78).

 

Based on the convo here, I’m guessing 1985/86 and 1996/97 also had early season activity.

[TT-SEA]

Hmm..that seems to fit with the tendencies in other plausible analog years (1985/86, 1996/97, 2006/07, 2014/15, etc, in addition to 1977/78).

 

Based on the convo here, I’m guessing 1985/86 and 1996/97 also had early season activity.

 

 

I think November of 1985 had something interesting... might have been cold and snow?     Not sure.  

 

Might have also been followed by the driest December ever.   Just a rumor.   

[Deweydog]

Your response to that 100% serious post of mine definitely tells me so!

You only get one weather-related reverse psychology card per lifetime. Spend it wisely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

Looks like the PV might take an early hit next week.

 

That’s one of the ironic benefits of the Aleutian Low...it rocks the PV (typically to initiate W-1 structure), such that it can be easier to dislodge if/when the pattern changes again.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png