September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Many places are between 30-50% of normal since May 1. Including OLM, Bremerton, BLI, Kent, and Landsburg.

 

SEA is on the drier side, but not an outlier.

 

I was just throwing it out there... there have been times when I have looked at the radar and traffic cams around SEA and thought they just got clobbered and then they only report .01 or .02

 

I am not saying SEA has not been well below normal... but it seems possible that there is also a gauge issue there.   I know Jim in Federal Way has had twice as much rain as SEA this month as well.   

[Front Ranger]

I was just throwing it out there... there have been times when I have looked at the radar and traffic cams around SEA and thought they just got clobbered and then they only report .01 or .02

 

I am not saying SEA has not been well below normal... but it seems possible that there is also a gauge issue there.   I know Jim in Federal Way has had twice as much rain as SEA this month as well.   

 

Well, all you have is very speculative evidence. Overall, the fact remains that SEA has not been an outlier for the region in recent months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That negative departure won’t last through the end of the month. At least at PDX.

 

Next time I will just keep the good news to my self. 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous morning. I am almost certain the stats this year would prove that Saturday has been the rainiest day and Monday has been the sunniest day.

 

[Phil]

Oregon department of agricultural seasonal forecast was released last week. Calling for slightly below normal temps in October, above normal November and December. Forecasting much above normal precipitation.

 

Their analog years were 1996, 2006, 2012.

They’re clearly going with recency and QBO, instead of ENSO/tropical SSTs. Interesting strategy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I see that McMinnville is at 140% of normal rain for September... and they are squarely in the west valley. Must be a pretty distinct north-south gradient within the WV.

McMinnville can more easily get moisture from the WSW as they aren't blocked quite as much there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They’re clearly going with recency and QBO, instead of ENSO/tropical SSTs. Interesting strategy.

 

All 3 of those years had complete washout Novembers. 

[Front Ranger]

All 3 of those years had complete washout Novembers. 

 

1996 and 2006 both had very active/interesting November-Decembers, that's for sure.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All 3 of those years had complete washout Novembers.

And they were all lame winters in the Willamette Valley as well.

 

Edit: Forgot the event in 2007 when I was at UO wasted in my frat   I recall walking to 7-11 in about 19F and snow with a t-shirt and shorts to buy snacks. I do remember 1996-97 being lame for much of the WV, as we missed out on the goods by 150 miles or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

McMinnville can more easily get moisture from the WSW as they aren't blocked quite as much there.

 

Yeah they got hit two days in a row with some fairly heavy isolated showers if I remember correctly. 

[Esquimalt]

All 3 of those years had complete washout Novembers.

Well on the flip side I think all of them had a major snow event here in Vic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And they were all lame winters in the Willamette Valley as well.

 

06-07' wasn't a total loss...

 

November-December 2012 were pretty active, just not interesting...

[TT-SEA]

Well, all you have is very speculative evidence. Overall, the fact remains that SEA has not been an outlier for the region in recent months.

 

 

Interestingly... Monroe (station is at an elevation of only 120 feet) illustrates the wet area to the north and east of Seattle very well.  

 

Over the last 5 months since May 1st:

 

Actual rain - 10.57 inches

Normal rain - 10.85 inches

 

What drought??  

[Front Ranger]

I see that McMinnville is at 140% of normal rain for September... and they are squarely in the west valley.     Must be a pretty distinct north-south gradient within the WV.

 

[Front Ranger]

Lol GEM

 

ICON looks pretty similar.

[TT-SEA]

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Wet month up here!     

 

I would love to see Oregon painted in purple while western WA is painted in red for once.    

[Deweydog]

Sprinklers are back on...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

ICON looks pretty similar.

So does the FV3-GFS

[MossMan]

Sprinklers are back on...

Won’t need sprinklers again up around here again until next July most likely.

[Deweydog]

Won’t need sprinklers again up around here again until next July most likely.

I've seen a map here or there supporting this prognostication.

[Jesse]

Next time I will just keep the good news to my self.

If 8/23 to 9/23 were a calendar month it would have easily been a few degrees below average there. So there’s that. :’)

[Deweydog]

#amonthwithsomeofaugustiniticebox

[Canadian guy]

Well on the flip side I think all of them had a major snow event here in Vic.

 

major snow events in 96 and 06 but the winter of 12/13 was a dud in Vic.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

major snow events in 96 and 06 but the winter of 12/13 was a dud in Vic.

 

12-13 was basically a dud regionally right?

[Esquimalt]

major snow events in 96 and 06 but the winter of 12/13 was a dud in Vic.

 

Just looked up the stats on EC's website...you're right.  A decent amount of cold in January but very little in the way of snow.  Must have been thinking of 11/12. 

[Front Ranger]

12-13 was basically a dud regionally right?

 

Yep. Came close to something good in January (was actually one of the coldest Januaries in the past 25 years for many places), but no significant lowland snows or major Arctic intrusions.

[ShawniganLake]

major snow events in 96 and 06 but the winter of 12/13 was a dud in Vic.

Snowed about 5” here in Christmas Day 2012. And the month actually was fairly snowy but there was basically nothing below a couple hundred feet elevation.

 

1996 of course set the bar for December snowfall and 2006 set the bar for both November snowfall and rainfall. (At least at Shawnigan Lake.)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep. Came close to something good in January (was actually one of the coldest Januaries in the past 25 years for many places), but no significant lowland snows or major Arctic intrusions.

December 15-January 20th were pretty good up here. About 15" of snow, and lots of cold weather, after that winter just pretty much ended even here in the foothills. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks like it will be wet early next week... but shows it being really nice still on Saturday and is basically dry through the weekend for most of the area with the real rain moving in on Sunday night.

[TT-SEA]

Heavy rain re-focusing to the south one week from today per the 12Z ECMWF.      Rain down to the Bay Area!  

 

[Jesse]

Models really crapped the bed with the cold retrogression idea. That was looking likely just a few days ago. Although we probably need a wet pattern more than cold and dry right now, which is looking good for next week barring any other sudden changes.

 

Pretty toasty down here through Saturday, in the meantime. September will end up slightly warmer and drier than average. We are way overdue for some cold and wet months!

[TT-SEA]

Here are the high temps on Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... not bad for what has evolved into deep troughing by that time.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Models really crapped the bed with the cold retrogression idea. That was looking likely just a few days ago. Although we probably need a wet pattern more than cold and dry right now, which is looking good for next week barring any other sudden changes.

 

Pretty toasty down here through Saturday, in the meantime. September will end up slightly warmer and drier than average. We are way overdue for some cold and wet months!

 

 

You are in luck... the next 6 months almost always feel wet and cold!   Even when its drier and warmer than normal.   

[Jesse]

Here are the high temps on Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... not bad for what has evolved into deep troughing by that time.

 

71 will still pull PDX’s all-important monthly average down after it sustains some serious damage this week.

[MossMan]

Here are the high temps on Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... not bad for what has evolved into deep troughing by that time.

 

Looks absolutely lovely over in the wine country of Eastern Wa!

[Jesse]

You are in luck... the next 6 months almost always feel wet and cold! Even when its drier and warmer than normal.

Yeah but I meant compared to normal. You must be off your game, surprised you didn’t catch that!

[TT-SEA]

By far the wettest period on the 12Z ECMWF is Sunday night into Monday morning before everything shifts south and ridging builds back in.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah but I meant compared to normal. You must be off your game, surprised you didn’t catch that!

 

 

I knew what you meant.  

[Jesse]

I knew what you meant.

I guess I’ll have to just take your word for it!

[TT-SEA]

Looks absolutely lovely over in the wine country of Eastern Wa!

Is that where you will be?