September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

Deep breaths. Give him the benefit of the doubt. Phil will snap some pics in the morning.

Lol

[Phil]

[El_Nina]

00Z GFS has something for everyone... lots of ridging but mixed with some periodic troughing.

 

It has everything except rain in Oregon.

 

Rain literally everywhere else but Oregon.

The grass is already greening up and the soil is saturated for good now anyways. All I ask for from here on out is a solid snowpack.

[liquidsnow]

[Phil]

Conveniently never has proof of anything....

Oh brother.

[Phil]

I want pics. If I do not see pics...you will forever be cursed with silverfish and 50 degree drizzle.

Haha. Done deal.

[Phil]

This MJO wave has really boosted WHEM SSTAs. The opposite pattern of the last 2 years.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Offshore flow has surfaced in the Fraser valley over the past hour. Abbotsford is 71F with a NE wind gusting to 32mph

[Jesse]

Offshore flow has surfaced in the Fraser valley over the past hour. Abbotsford is 71F with a NE wind gusting to 32mph

Arctic air has arrived.

[Jesse]

The grass is already greening up and the soil is saturated for good now anyways. All I ask for from here on out is a solid snowpack.

I think that only applies to the far northern part of western Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF continues to show a major rain event for Vancouver Island and the Vancouver area and the north Cascades from late Saturday through Monday morning.    Some really impressive totals being shown.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

ECMWF continues to show a major rain event for Vancouver Island and the Vancouver area and the north Cascades from late Saturday through Monday morning. Some really impressive totals being shown.

 

 

Ridging looks delayed end of next week

[TT-SEA]

Ridging looks delayed end of next week

 

 

Definitely.  

[TT-SEA]

Ridging looks delayed end of next week

Really not much of any ridging at all on that run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The grass is already greening up and the soil is saturated for good now anyways. All I ask for from here on out is a solid snowpack.

Not in the central and south valley.

[Phil]

00Z GFS has something for everyone... lots of ridging but mixed with some periodic troughing.

 

It has everything except rain in Oregon.

 

Rain literally everywhere else but Oregon.

You just don’t quit, do you?

[El_Nina]

I think that only applies to the far northern part of western Oregon.

I think that's accurate, how does it look there?

[TT-SEA]

You just don’t quit, do you?

That was actually expressing annoyance that the entire country was wet on that run except Oregon. That was really not meant to be a troll unlike some of my other posts.

[Kayla]

Looks like the smoke is going to make a return tomorrow. Could really use a really good soaking at the CA/OR border to finally put those fires out. Been a long fire season down there.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the smoke is going to make a return tomorrow. Could really use a really good soaking at the CA/OR border to finally put those fires out. Been a long fire season down there.

 

October is the peak of the fire season in CA in many years.

[Kayla]

October is the peak of the fire season in CA in many years.

 

Not in southern OR though.

[Front Ranger]

Not in southern OR though.

Yeah, what he said applies more to SoCal.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, what he said applies more to SoCal.

 

I  guess.

[Jesse]

I think that's accurate, how does it look there?

It has improved here in east Clark County. We did well with the mid September showers. But definitely could still use more.

 

I think things are still pretty bad from the northern Willamette Valley southward, though.

[Jesse]

06z wasn’t very torchy. Must be wrong.

[El_Nina]

Not in the central and south valley.

Wow I can't believe you're trying to guilt trip me into feeling bad about having enough rain.

[Front Ranger]

It has improved here in east Clark County We did well with the mid September showers. But definitely could still use more.

 

I think things are still pretty bad from the northern Willamette Valley southward, though.

 

Yup. Still severe drought for much of the area south of Seattle, and extreme drought for the area between Eugene and Roseburg.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow I can't believe you're trying to guilt trip me into feeling bad about having enough rain.

Not trying to guilt trip you. I got the impression you were talking about the whole valley.

[Jesse]

Not trying to guilt trip you. I got the impression you were talking about the whole valley.

I could be wrong but I think he was mocking Tim’s attitude there.

[TT-SEA]

Inversion out here this morning... its sunny and 65 up here with a little east wind but only 50 down in the valley with fog.

[TT-SEA]

I could be wrong but I think he was mocking Tim’s attitude there.

 

 

I think you might be wrong.   I got the feeling that he was reporting his actual conditions in terms of recent rainfall there.    I might be mistaken but it did not seem like he was just joking.  

[Jesse]

I think you might be wrong. I got the feeling that he was reporting his actual conditions in terms of recent rainfall there. I might be mistaken but it did not seem like he was just joking.

Yeah, he was reporting his real conditions. But the second response was out of character. El Nina isn’t that douchey.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, he was reporting his real conditions. But the second response was out of character. El Nina isn’t that douchey.

 

 

Possibly... but you will feel bad now if he was being earnest and you just called that douchey.   

[Jesse]

Possibly... but you will feel bad now if he was being earnest and you just called that douchey.

I am confident.

[Jesse]

East wind has surfaced at Troutdale this morning. They are already up to 73.

 

Good chance today is the warmest day of this warm spell in the Portland area. 85-90.

[TT-SEA]

East wind has surfaced at Troutdale this morning. They are already up to 73.

 

Good chance today is the warmest day of this warm spell in the Portland area. 85-90.

 

 

Same here... 69 now.    

 

Still only 54 in the valley.    I think the east wind will punch through down there and the temperature will jump up quickly... that is how it usually works on days like this.

[Front Ranger]

East wind has surfaced at Troutdale this morning. They are already up to 73.

 

Good chance today is the warmest day of this warm spell in the Portland area. 85-90.

 

So far this strategy has worked out well! No 85+ days yet...NWS going with 82 today for PDX, so if most the metro ends up 85-90, will be quite the bust.

 

You have to get pretty perfect conditions for close to 90 this time of year, doubt this air mass has what it takes (I just unjinxed your jinx).

[BLI snowman]

So far this strategy has worked out well! No 85+ days yet...NWS going with 82 today for PDX, so if most the metro ends up 85-90, will be quite the bust.

 

You have to get pretty perfect conditions for close to 90 this time of year, doubt this air mass has what it takes (I just unjinxed your jinx).

84.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS sure was nice.

[Farmboy]

12z GFS had an interesting look to it after day 10, digs out a big western trough with an approaching tropical system.  Massive snowstorm for Montana?  I've been watching that second tropical system now for the last few runs as well as the western trough.  FWIW the 12z FV3-GFS looks like it wants to dig out a deep western trough on it's last frame (hr. 240), it looks like the Euro could be headed in that direction as well...