September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

12z GFS had an interesting look to it after day 10, digs out a big western trough with an approaching tropical system. Massive snowstorm for Montana? I've been watching that second tropical system now for the last few runs as well as the western trough. FWIW the 12z FV3-GFS looks like it wants to dig out a deep western trough on it's last frame (hr. 240), it looks like the Euro could be headed in that direction as well...

Hope we can get snowfall? Earliest snowfall according to the nws for seattle was on Oct 27th

[Farmboy]

Hope we can get snowfall? Earliest snowfall according to the nws for seattle was on Oct 27th

It looked too warm for snow here, but Montana looked like it could score, especially higher up from the valley floors.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF continues to show a major rain event for Vancouver Island and the Vancouver area and the north Cascades from late Saturday through Monday morning.    Some really impressive totals being shown.

 

 

 

 

Updated rainfall map through Monday.   Sunday and Monday actually look pretty dry from Seattle southward.   The rain shown below from Seattle southward actually comes late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope we can get snowfall? Earliest snowfall according to the nws for seattle was on Oct 27th

Easy now...let's get inside the all-important 7-day rug-pull-out (yes, pull-out) threshold first.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has some rain from Olympia northward on Tuesday afternoon... but at least the rest of the work week looks dry on this run.  

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS sure was nice.

Onsomble support to.

[Jesse]

East winds have kicked in here. Temp is up to 75 after a low of 49.

[Jesse]

PDX already +4 on yesterday. That would put them at 88.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

PDX already +4 on yesterday. That would put them at 88.

South valley also expected to get to 88 or so.

[Kayla]

It looked too warm for snow here, but Montana looked like it could score, especially higher up from the valley floors.

 

Plenty cold enough for all snow down to all the valley floors on the 12z GFS and FV3 but it's a long ways out and the models have been dangling the snow carrots out here for a while now.

 

With that said... The 12z EPS supports the idea of a significant region wide snowstorm on days 12-15.

[Blizzard777]

Amazing change at Kalama Park on my drive down to Portland. Renovation of the shoreline as well. They have a few more things their doing as well so make sure you stop off here for a drink at the new McMenamins and take a walk along the beach. Summer day indeed here with a hint of fall

[Blizzard777]

A few weeks ago when sand was delivered

[Jesse]

Definitely a classic warm early fall day out there. The east winds tell you that the cold season is right around the corner.

[Jesse]

The east winds mixing up the boundary layer but staying light enough not to fully surface at PDX is a good setup for maximizing warmth there this time of year.

 

They are up to 78 now. Still running +4 on yesterday.

[Kayla]

Definitely a classic warm early fall day out there. The east winds tell you that the cold season is right around the corner.

 

It is indeed! Chilly 15-20 mph NE wind and 47F here in Bozeman with clear skies in the middle of the afternoon. 

[Geos]

Looks like the smoke is going to make a return tomorrow. Could really use a really good soaking at the CA/OR border to finally put those fires out. Been a long fire season down there.

 

 

Those fires in Arizona will be on their way out in the next several days with precip totals like this...

 

[Kayla]

12z EPS mean and control supports the idea of the 12z GFS/FV3 of a very large and cold western trough days 10-15.

[Jesse]

12z EPS mean and control supports the idea of the 12z GFS/FV3 of a very large and cold western trough days 10-15.

It has become irrelevant again.

[Kayla]

It has become irrelevant again.

 

Very strong mean signal 10+ days out.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2vbx0kk.png

[Geos]

Updated rainfall map through Monday.   Sunday and Monday actually look pretty dry from Seattle southward.   The rain shown below from Seattle southward actually comes late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

 

Wow, the mountains facing Vancouver looked to get really hosed. Flooding concerns?

 

Milder night at 52 this morning - now up to 70. 

[High Desert Mat!]

Has anyone seen the pics of the massive landslide back east yet? Just curious.

[Farmboy]

Those fires in Arizona will be on their way out in the next several days with precip totals like this...

 

Holy cow, that map shows the focal point of the precip in the hills east of Lake Havasu City, AZ, which basically sits on a fairly steep hillside. When I was there it seems like I saw a pretty good system of arroyos for storm runoff, but with that much rain, there still could be problems in town...

[Jbolin]

Has anyone seen the pics of the massive landslide back east yet? Just curious.

What landslide?

[Jesse]

What landslide?

 

The Booze Creek slide. One person still missing.

[Front Ranger]

Very strong mean signal 10+ days out.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2vbx0kk.png

It has my vote.

[TT-SEA]

It has become irrelevant again.

 

 

After 15 years... Jesse is still struggling with the idea that people on here generally don't bother to take the time to post maps unless it interests them.  

[TT-SEA]

It has my vote.

 

 

My wife is going to be Denver starting next Sunday and beyond... she would prefer warm, sunny weather.    Not looking good!   

[Jbolin]

The Booze Creek slide. One person still missing.

I haven't heard anything about a landslide so this is news to me.

[Front Ranger]

My wife is going to be Denver starting next Sunday and beyond... she would prefer warm, sunny weather. Not looking good!

You should go with her. I'm sure that would change things!

[Jesse]

After 15 years... Jesse is still struggling with the idea that people on here generally don't bother to take the time to post maps unless it interests them.  

 

Didn't the narrative used to be you post all trends, good or bad? I can't keep up.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't the narrative used to be you post all trends, good or bad? I can't keep up.

 

I do my best.   

[TT-SEA]

76 at SEA... sun angle must be higher today than earlier in the week.   

 

76 here as well.  

[Jesse]

I do my best.   

 

It's fine that the maps you post almost always have a warm or dry bias. Just own it. The problem arises when you act like it's in everyone's head.

[Jesse]

PDX +5 on yesterday now.

[Blizzard777]

Definitely a classic warm early fall day out there. The east winds tell you that the cold season is right around the corner.

My buddy in Troutdale was tired of replacing his landscaping every year due to Mr. East wind. He now has a flat landscape with heavy rocks. No trees allowed

[Jesse]

My buddy in Troutdale was tired of replacing his landscaping every year due to Mr. East wind. He now has a flat landscape with heavy rocks. No trees allowed

 

Sounds like a zen garden.

[Blizzard777]

71* back home and according to readings around Tigard...86*

[TT-SEA]

71* back home and according to readings around Tigard...86*

 

71 seems low.   I see 77 at a station in Federal Way near Dash Point.

 

77 at SEA on the hour.      

[Blizzard777]

71 seems low.   I see 77 at a station in Federal Way near Dash Point.

 

77 at SEA on the hour.

 

Mixed temps around the area....mine just flipped to 72 but has not updated on the map

[TT-SEA]

Mixed temps around the area....mine just flipped to 72 but has not updated on the map

 

 

Crazy mix there... must be a breeze off the Sound in some places.

 

77 here.