TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Nice afternoon for mowing the lawn... clouds have been forming all day but fade quickly and its been mostly sunny. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Well advertised by the ECMWF all week. Surface map superiorty.Another ruined weekend here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Another ruined weekend here Sad. Been just a couple nice weekend days up here this month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 The AP-index is going to finish ~ 8.5 for the month of September. That’s a bit on the high side for solar minimum.I really want to see it drop below 5 this winter. If it remains elevated, the odds of a weak SC25 will decline substantially. Recall it dropped to 3 during 2009. if we have a more active sc25 then all of the preditions of a very low solar minimum would be off and that would mean it would be back to the books again lol.but it would tell more then anything as humans we want to think we know what really going on in climate and the sun when in fact we know less then we would really like to amint which is a human nature.interesting times for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Raindrops on roses in Salmon Creek! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Yeah couple sprinkles and 62. Nice lazy Saturday. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Yeah couple sprinkles and 62. Nice lazy Saturday. Upslope action? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Upslope action?Doubt it... band west of Portland is basically moving from east to west. Flow is from the ESE... the opposite of what would give Andrew upslope enhancement. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Low 60s and sunshine is definitely disgusting early October weather. Probably the type of weather most people dread in the fall... so gross. I prefer October weather in October and July weather in July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 I prefer October weather in October and July weather in July.Yeah... and low 60s with some sun is very Octoberish weather in early October. And it seems like you usually like October weather in July as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Tim>above the fray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Tim is right. Not upslope today... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Saw my first flakes today. I need to stay out of the bar I guess 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 It is sprinkling outside right now. Heard a rumble of thunder and am very excited. I haven't seen a good shower since June 21st and that was even suspect. I live in one of the driest parts of the country and need some rain. Hopefully it comes soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Lovely morning at the lake. My dog told me it’s not time to take the boat out of the water just yet. Came home late morning and spent the day working in the yard. Had 5 minutes of sprinkles around noon. Perfect yard day! Currently 65. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Only hit 63 today. Looks like most valley locations stayed in the 60s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Snoqualmie Valley was the warm spot on the west side today... with clouds to the north and south and sunshine with offshore flow all day here. Mid-70s for highs out here... down to 63 and cloudy now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Really coming down here now. Was a decent day though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Really coming down here now. Was a decent day though. I just noticed that little cell up there on the radar. Totally dry at the Huskies game right now across the lake (absolutely crushing #20 BYU). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Now raining at little at Husky stadium. Game is basically over. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 87 yesterday, and 63 today. The forecast was 75 (KPTV) today, so a pretty big bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Now raining at little at Husky stadium. Game is basically over. My co-worker went to BYU, he will be disappointed in the outcome, but the Wisconsin win made the season already for him. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 #2014redux Knot Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Nice to see the reversal work out today. PDX scored their coolest high of the season to date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15. Dave Tolleris on twitter was comparing this summer and fall to 2009-2010 are you kidding me first of all that was a moderate to strong not a weak event like he proclaimed El nino this year we are only slowly building a El nino not even close to that analog.And the NAO was all ready at exstream negative mode levels while we are still strongly positive.Now 2019-2020 could well be a different story all togeather if we get a stronger Nino Solar Min combination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15. You might have missed the irony there Phil. 2014 was our warmest October on record. That shows a cold pattern for the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Dave Tolleris on twitter was comparing this summer and fall to 2009-2010 are you kidding me first of all that was a moderate to strong not a weak event like he proclaimed El nino this year we are only slowly building a El nino not even close to that analog.And the NAO was all ready at exstream negative mode levels while we are still strongly positive.Now 2019-2020 could well be a different story all togeather if we get a stronger Nino Solar Min combination.Yeah, 2009-10 is a terrible analog. Much colder Indo-Pacific this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 You might have missed the irony there Phil. 2014 was our warmest October on record. That shows a cold pattern for the west.Oh, I knew you were being sarcastic. The pattern over North America is definitely different right now, despite the larger scale players being highly analogous to 2014/15 for the most part. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 There was more IO forcing in 2014/15, which kept you guys warm during the autumn. This year has a much colder Indo-Pacific, which favors WHEM forcing and a colder West during the autumn. But come mid-winter, this regime of tropical convection would promote the exact opposite pattern over North America (+PNA/western ridge). Unless the forcing can slide westward enough over time to maintain the EPO pattern as wavelengths elongate seasonally. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Getting some rain here! In many places of the Medford CWA the first measurable precipitation since July 15th. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Rain. 58. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 UW rolled vs BYU, Cougs had a hard-fought win in Pullman over Utah, Ducks had a good defensive performance in Berkeley and bounced back with a win over Cal. ...And then there's the poor Beavers. The folks in Corvallis are a tortured bunch in some ways, haven't had a snow event since early March, 2017 (longest drought in the PNW) and their revenue sports are in the crapper. But hey, they have a fantastic baseball team. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Very stagnant pattern. D1-5, D6-10, D11-15.That's a persistent pattern. Looks like the cold anomaly really digs itself into the West and expands in the last frame. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Very nice... hope the 12Z GFS is right and not wandering aimlessly. Looks like it was wandering aimlessly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Looks like it was wandering aimlessly. Totally wandering. Likely due to the models struggling with all of the tropical activity. So it goes in the fall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Totally wandering. Likely due to the models struggling with all of the tropical activity. So it goes in the fall.The problem with those runs seemed to be cutting off the top of the offshore ridge, floating the top off toward the pole, and then being way too progressive with what was left of the base. As it stands it looks like the offshore ridge will hold together better. At least this coming week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Some really cold ensemble members in about a week and a half. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Oh, I knew you were being sarcastic. The pattern over North America is definitely different right now, despite the larger scale players being highly analogous to 2014/15 for the most part. Are you talking mostly in terms of ENSO? Seems like solar is a lot different this time around, for whatever that is worth. Blob/raging +PDO is gone too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Some really cold ensemble members in about a week and a half. This is one of the phrases on my magic 8 ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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