November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Word soup.

 

Only 2 significant rain events over the next 16 days here per the 00Z GFS.     

[Jesse]

Only 2 significant rain events over the next 16 days here per the 00Z GFS.

Sounds droughty!

[TT-SEA]

Not sure about there but besides the bone dry May and drier than normal July/August, it's been a very wet year. Almost 10" of rain in September here. Almost 8" in April, etc.

 

 

Normal all around... some people to the south seem quite jealous.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Normal all around... some people to the south seem quite jealous.

 

Jealous of having a non-burned home? Sure.

[umadbro]

2 people acting like Millenials. Even though one actually is one. The need to be righter than the other in this group is a solid form of entertainment.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF still shows lots of snow for the Apple Cup... should be fun to watch!

 

[Jesse]

2 people acting like Millenials. Even though one actually is one. The need to be righter than the other in this group is a solid form of entertainment.

Aren’t you a milenial? You are like a week older than me.

[snow_wizard]

Currently sitting at 3.3" for the month here. Doesn't look like totals up that way are much higher this month. Still could end up a little below average for the month.

 

 

You are actually running wetter this month than I am here!  Pretty unusual in recent years.

[umadbro]

Aren’t you a milenial? You are like a week older than me.

Its not all about you, youngin.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting to note the analogs to day 11 on tonight's GFS were from some good years.  8 out of 10 led to notable cold and or snow in December.

[stuffradio]

I don't know how much rain I have had since 5PM yesterday, but my 24 hour period was just under 2" of rain.

[snow_wizard]

Never said the 00z looked dry. Just that it looked like crap!

 

The MJO forecasts for early December look fantastic at this point.  Pretty good prospects for something decent in the first half of Dec IMO.

[snow_wizard]

I don't know how much rain I have had since 5PM yesterday, but my 24 hour period was just under 2" of rain.

 

I've only had a little over 3/4".

[Requiem]

The MJO forecasts for early December look fantastic at this point.  Pretty good prospects for something decent in the first half of Dec IMO.

 

What kind of event would that "something decent" be?

[Jesse]

Its not all about you, youngin.

Nice change of pace from your usual content, in that case.

[snow_wizard]

What kind of event would that "something decent" be?

 

Anything from 5 to 10 days of moderate cold to a full blown Arctic blast.  Moderate cold would be an average temp about 6F to 9F below normal over a one week period.  Decent could also be something like what Seattle had in December 1965.  A decent snowfall with temps a bit below normal.

[Requiem]

Anything from 5 to 10 days of moderate cold to a full blown Arctic blast.  Moderate cold would be an average temp about 6F to 9F below normal over a one week period.  Decent could also be something like what Seattle had in December 1965.  A decent snowfall with temps a bit below normal.

 

Nice. I'm looking forward to what might be ahead!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ECMWF still shows lots of snow for the Apple Cup... should be fun to watch!

 

 

Seems unlikely. NWS calling for rain at game time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anything from 5 to 10 days of moderate cold to a full blown Arctic blast.  Moderate cold would be an average temp about 6F to 9F below normal over a one week period.  Decent could also be something like what Seattle had in December 1965.  A decent snowfall with temps a bit below normal.

 

Silver Falls had a 30/7 day in December 1965. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS gets pretty chilly next weekend.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Massive blast of arctic air moving south at hour 384

 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice to see the Oregon Cascades get at least some snow!

[Phil]

Rolling with the punches.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018112306&fh=-42

[Blizzard777]

Mt. Bachelor currently

Not bad so far

[jcmcgaffey]

Hmmm...Only .18 so far at SEA. The other nearby weather stations have almost twice as much rain. It could just be SEA is not updated on the amount so far yet.

[TT-SEA]

Hmmm...Only .18 so far at SEA. The other nearby weather stations have almost twice as much rain. It could just be SEA is not updated on the amount so far yet.

 

 

I see .23 at SEA since midnight... but even that seems low.    The heavy rain bands have been training over the Seattle area since yesterday evening.   The Snoqualmie Valley station is almost to 1 inch since midnight and the heaviest rain has frequently been to the west overnight.

 

Although I will say that with a colder air mass like we have now... sometimes the rainfall totals are not as high as you would think based on the radar.  

 

[jcmcgaffey]

I see .23 at SEA since midnight... but even that seems low. The heavy rain bands have been training over the Seattle area since yesterday evening. The Snoqualmie Valley station is almost to 1 inch since midnight and the heaviest rain has frequently been to the west overnight.

 

Although I will say that with a colder air mass like we have now... sometimes the rainfall totals are not as high as you would think based on the radar.

 

. Ya I have noticed that too. Just looking at the wunderground map I see .43, .39, .36 etc. maybe the personal weather stations don’t trsck rain as accurately but when they are all showing more than SEA it makes me wonder.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You are actually running wetter this month than I am here!  Pretty unusual in recent years.

 

First time in a long time I bet. Heavy rain here this morning, at this rate it won't be long until we surpass 4" on the month.

[Blizzard777]

1.10 storm total so far Federal Way

45* currently

 

Enjoyed Thanksgiving at my brothers in Damascus Or. Got a little blustery at times in the afternoon and some moderate rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About 0.35" in the bucket since midnght.

[Blizzard777]

.43 of precipitation so far today south of SeaTac

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z does not look like it is following the positive direction of the 06z.

[van city]

12z does not look like it is following the positive direction of the 06z.

6z canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z actaully ends up in the same place as the 06z. Actually speeds it up a little. Big Aleutian ridge.

 

 

[Esquimalt]

12z actaully ends up in the same place as the 06z. Actually speeds it up a little. Big Aleutian ridge.

 

 

A little seattle snow on this one at 384. 

[ShawniganLake]

The GEM looks quite active and wet all of next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM looks quite active and wet all of next week

 

Much wetter than the GFS, both have a fairly cool trough by next weekend. 

[stuffradio]

The weeklies from yesteray has cold anomalies for the 5 day periods of the end of December. The beginning of December is cool on the west, then it kind of "warms up" until the middle of December, then goes back negative for the latter half of December into the new year. Most of eastern Canada is above normal, and much of central middle CONUS is warmer too for the 5 day period around Christmas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some eye candy from two years ago. Didn't turn out quite this good, but the early December period did bring a solid 4-5" snowfall up here and about an inch in the valley from Salem north.