November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

Holy mother of God. January 1971 redux?!

 

 

This is what I enjoy. Why does it have to be so far out though?

[Timmy Supercell]

I don't get it. Chicago's getting a blizzard, New York has had a snowstorm, the South had a powerful storm last week. Why can't we get our turn for once?

 

I don't think I can remember any pattern where the whole entire country is cold and snowy at the same time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think I can remember any pattern where the whole entire country is cold and snowy at the same time. 

 

December 1983?  

 

Yeah not super common. 

[Front Ranger]

This is what I enjoy. Why does it have to be so far out though?

 

Why aren't we there yet?

[Requiem]

I don't think I can remember any pattern where the whole entire country is cold and snowy at the same time. 

 

I don't think there's ever been a pattern like that. But just last winter is a great example of something I hate. The Midwest got some intense snowstorms, the South an ice storm, the NE multiple nor'easters, CA a significant storm in January. We barely got anything significant last year (more so if you lived in Seattle).

[El_Nina]

Seems like we're slipping right back into the infamous inversion pattern. That would be bad for snowpack again.

[Deweydog]

Holy mother of God. January 1971 redux?!

 

Looks breezy and wet!

[Timmy Supercell]

Perhaps I overreacted. Sorry, I'm just a bit tired of the same old same old for an entire year. I loved 2016-2017, why not a repeat of that?

 

Maybe not something quite as big as '16-'17, but somewhere in the middle is probably more likely.

[Requiem]

Maybe not something quite as big as '16-'17, but somewhere in the middle is probably more likely.

 

I will absolutely take it. Anything but what last year was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hate to break it to people, but Portland had above average snowfall last winter. It kind of is what it is...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Our view on Saturday morning at the cabin.

[Requiem]

Hate to break it to people, but Portland had above average snowfall last winter. It kind of is what it is...

 

It was one week in February, which was certainly fun but not to the extent that any of the storms in 2016-2017 were. The season was also very dry, and other than that snow event for (basically) only the Portland metro area, I'd be hard-pressed to find a single event of note.

[TT-SEA]

Our view on Saturday morning at the cabin.

Looks like you enjoyed the dry weekend.

[Deweydog]

Winter 2016-17 feels like it was less than two years ago despite the reality that it clearly occurred during a different climate period.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hate to break it to people, but Portland had above average snowfall last winter. It kind of is what it is...

 

Eugene didn't

[Jesse]

What's funny is what the FV3 shows would probably be a pretty good east wind setup.

Nice new influx of people who can’t read models this year. I’m liking this guys!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some REALLY wet ensemble members.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice new influx of people who can’t read models this year. I’m liking this guys!

 

And apparently have no understanding of our climate, and no desire to learn. Great combo, it almost seems like pointless trolling...

[Jesse]

Seems like we're slipping right back into the infamous inversion pattern. That would be bad for snowpack again.

Once we get through the couple inches of rain this week and if the 18z beyond hour 240 is correct, then maybe...

[Requiem]

Nice new influx of people who can’t read models this year. I’m liking this guys!

 

I'm sorry that I'm not terribly good at recognizing when a gradient is or is not good for a good east wind event, because the last time I saw an awesome gradient for east winds they gusted to 30 at PDX. Furthermore the kind of east wind event I would like is a downsloping wind event, rather than a traditional gap wind.

[Requiem]

And apparently have no understanding of our climate, and no desire to learn. Great combo, it almost seems like pointless trolling...

 

I'm not trolling and I don't know where I said I had no desire to learn

[Farmboy]

This is what I enjoy. Why does it have to be so far out though?

Because models are evil. Believe me, they're getting a big kick out of this. Don't let them bait you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not trolling and I don't know where I said I had no desire to learn

 

Then listen and learn. 2016-17 was the exception, not the rule. We've had what, 3 of the past 10 winters with decent snowfall. 2008-09, 2013-14, 2016-17. In our climate last winter was actually decent. January torched, but December and February were below average. And it snowed. In the 1950s or 60s last winter would have sucked, but if you compare it to the past 30 years it was OK. A ridge overhead with strong arctic air moving down east of the Rockies is a great east wind pattern...

[Requiem]

Then listen and learn. 2016-17 was the exception, not the rule. We've had what, 3 of the past 10 winters with decent snowfall. 2008-09, 2013-14, 2016-17. In our climate last winter was actually decent. January torched, but December and February were below average. And it snowed. In the 1950s or 60s last winter would have sucked, but if you compare it to the past 30 years it was OK. A ridge overhead with strong arctic air moving down east of the Rockies is a great east wind pattern...

 

The only thing I really hated was that outside of the Portland and Willamette Valley snow 2018 was completely unremarkable. Though in many winters it hasn't snowed, at least every other winter has had one (or more) events of note, whether it bee a windstorm, rain event, snowstorm, or other winter weather event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The only thing I really hated was that outside of the Portland and Willamette Valley snow 2018 was completely unremarkable. Though in many winters it hasn't snowed, at least every other winter has had one (or more) events of note, whether it bee a windstorm, rain event, snowstorm, or other winter weather event.

 

It was a very dull winter with a very late payoff. Most of us expected it to be fairly active, which it was not.

[Deweydog]

I'm sorry that I'm not terribly good at recognizing when a gradient is or is not good for a good east wind event, because the last time I saw an awesome gradient for east winds they gusted to 30 at PDX. Furthermore the kind of east wind event I would like is a downsloping wind event, rather than a traditional gap wind.

It can be tricky to differentiate a gap and downslope pattern when it comes to offshore flow. We can help.

[Requiem]

It can be tricky to differentiate a gap and downslope pattern when it comes to offshore flow. We can help.

 

That would be much appreciated, thank you

 

It seems the gap patterns are much more common these days.

[High Desert Mat!]

Too Far East, too far west. One would think there's a median coming at some point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The only thing I really hated was that outside of the Portland and Willamette Valley snow 2018 was completely unremarkable. Though in many winters it hasn't snowed, at least every other winter has had one (or more) events of note, whether it bee a windstorm, rain event, snowstorm, or other winter weather event.

Indeed, there is a decent chunk West of I5 from about Dallas to Corvallis that hasnt experienced a significant weather event of any type since March of 2017, longest stretch in the PNW.

[Deweydog]

That would be much appreciated, thank you

 

It seems the gap patterns are much more common these days.

Not really. Downslope patterns tend to be transient because they need quite a bit of upper level support. Gap wind events can become self-sustaining.

[Timmy Supercell]

Last winter I had no daily snows over 3". There's a very good chance I get a few 4-6" this time.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles definitely trended a little warmer in the long range.

[Jesse]

I'm actually pretty optimistic. Call me Phil, but I think in a decade or two all of this hand wringing will seem pretty silly.

This might be fun to bump in a few decades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This might be fun to bump in a few decades.

 

Yeah if I'm still around in a few decades I really don't care if it is 1-2F warmer. "Climate Change" is really nothing more than a political trope. I'm not denying it, there has been some warming. I am also not saying there isn't a human element to it, there definitely is. But I do think we don't fully understand it and the way the research is funded we are not getting any closer to fully understanding it. 

 

All in all climate world wide is getting less extreme, and fewer and fewer people perish due to natural disasters because of modernization and improved forecasting. 

 

These cries of "we need to save the planet" are nothing more than total hubris and the idea that we are much more significant in the scheme of things than we really are. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ensembles definitely trended a little warmer in the long range.

 

Wetter though! 

[Requiem]

Indeed, there is a decent chunk West of I5 from about Dallas to Corvallis that hasnt experienced a significant weather event of any type since March of 2017, longest stretch in the PNW.

 

Wait, those areas did experience a nasty windstorm in April of 2017. So the weather-excitement drought has been since April of 2017, not March.

[Farmboy]

18z ensembles definitely trended a little warmer in the long range.

Lol, looks like Tim hijacked Jesse's account.

[Front Ranger]

Indeed, there is a decent chunk West of I5 from about Dallas to Corvallis that hasnt experienced a significant weather event of any type since March of 2017, longest stretch in the PNW.

 

Definitely time to make this your signature.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wait, those areas did experience a nasty windstorm in April of 2017. So the weather-excitement drought has been since April of 2017, not March.

 

Wasn't really that nasty. We tied everything down and didn't have any gusts strong enough to blow even the patio furniture around.

[Jesse]

Yeah if I'm still around in a few decades I really don't care if it is 1-2F warmer. "Climate Change" is really nothing more than a political trope. I'm not denying it, there has been some warming. I am also not saying there isn't a human element to it, there definitely is. But I do think we don't fully understand it and the way the research is funded we are not getting any closer to fully understanding it. 

 

All in all climate world wide is getting less extreme, and fewer and fewer people perish due to natural disasters because of modernization and improved forecasting. 

 

These cries of "we need to save the planet" are nothing more than total hubris and the idea that we are much more significant in the scheme of things than we really are. 

 

I love hubris. Roasted red pepper is the best flavor.