November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 00z FV3 shows a monster snowstorm for you.

 

Didn't pay much attention to that frame. One can hope...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is it good for Portland?

Looks good regionally at first glance.

[Deweydog]

False starts have started!

[snow_wizard]

So are you two going to be at the forum meet up?

 

There is actually going to be one?

[snow_wizard]

Is it good for Portland?

 

It eventually gets all of us.  Now it just has to happen.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift tonight for sure!!!! Come on Rob!!!

[Deweydog]

There is actually going to be one?

We're all going ice fishing on Lake Washington next month. Weather permitting.

[MossMan]

Night shift tonight for sure!!!! Come on Rob!!!

Think we need to get this bad boy down under 200hrs for Rob and the Gordon Fisherman to snow up.

[luvssnow_spokane]

And so it begins... full on snow storm and arctic blast. BRING IT!!

 

[Requiem]

EURO looks alright so far. Not as good as last run or the run before, but alright.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Think we need to get this bad boy down under 200hrs for Rob and the Gordon Fisherman to snow up.

Correct! ... to soon but if this gets into believeable range I can guarantee Rob and Gortan will appear.

[Jbolin]

Ensembles look decent'ish

[Requiem]

Ensembles look decent'ish

 

EURO doesn't look all that good from first glance. Yet.

[Jbolin]

Correct! ... to soon but if this gets into believeable range I can guarantee Rob and Gortan will appear.

"Gorton"

 

The Gorton's fisherman

 

Not Gordon nor Gortan (sounds like a cult leaders name) 

 

All hail Gortan 

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

Euro kind of threads the needle. Looks like a snow event for whatcom county and north towards day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Euro kind of threads the needle. Looks like a snow event for whatcom county and north towards day 9

Baby steps.

[ShawniganLake]

It was more generous to points south than I originally assumed

 

[MossMan]

It was more generous to points south than I originally assumed

 

CB1020D7-4CA8-49D5-9923-E8DEC8A5579A.png

Not bad at my new location!

[Requiem]

Not bad at my new location!

 

Nothing for Portland

[snow_wizard]

HUGE step in the right direction on the ECMWF.  850s bottom out at -8 over Seattle on this run.  Let's hope the trend continues!

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing for Portland

Bsf. 50 in Portland and 35 in seattle

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A quick warmup after a day with highs of 27 it looks like

 

Nov 2006 analog? That was a quick hitter, but thoroughly enjoyable.

[snow_wizard]

I think the fact that this is now an emoji is the best sign yet for this winter. 8-9 correlation eat your heart out.

 

The 8-9 winter thing is probably the single strangest random phonomenon there is for this region.  Out of all the 8-9 winters starting with 1898-99 the very worst of them have averaged normal and many were among the colest on record for us.

[Jesse]

The 8-9 winter thing is probably the single strangest random phonomenon there is for this region. Out of all the 8-9 winters starting with 1898-99 the very worst of them have averaged normal and many were among the colest on record for us.

Sounds like we’re due to buck the trend!

[snow_wizard]

To further expound on the 8-9 winters here is an off the top of my head list of accomplishments from those.

 

1898-99 - Two major rounds of winter with the late Dec - early January event bringing the longest recorded streak of days with 10" or more snow on the ground for Seattle.

 

1908-09 - One of the most intense January cold waves on record for the region with Seattle recording several sub 20 highs.

 

1918-19 - Normal winter

 

1928-29 - Utterly fantastic cold and snowy winter for the Puget Sound region

 

1938-39 - Normal winter

 

1948-49 - Very cold winter...tied for coldest on record for Sea - Tac

 

1958-59 - Normal winter with a couple of notable cold waves

 

1968-69 - Very cold and snowy winter region wide

 

1978-79 - Very cold winter

 

1988-89 - Cold winter with notable snowfalls, coldest Feb since 1936

 

1998-99 - Very cold December

 

2008-09 - You all know this one....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2008-09 - You all know this one....

 

They hear tales of it down here.

[snow_wizard]

Sounds like we’re due to buck the trend!

 

Maybe, but it's almost surreal how reliable it has been.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Next GFS at 2AM.  I'll be up!

[Jesse]

They hear tales of it down here.

Probably best to rely on something besides anecdotes from locals for historic weather data. Few people remember events with the same attention to detail that we weirdos do here.

[MossMan]

I remember 88/89, 98/99, 08/09 very well! I was a little young to remember 78/79.

[snow_wizard]

The temp has dropped to 35 here now.  Might squeeze in another freeze before the night is done.

[Jesse]

Continued modest ensemble improvement.

[snow_wizard]

Continued modest ensemble improvement.

 

We are in a pretty clear improving trend on the models right now.  Fingers crossed.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Next GFS at 2AM.  I'll be up!

I'll be asleep.

[snow_wizard]

I remember 88/89, 98/99, 08/09 very well! I was a little young to remember 78/79.

 

78-79 was just really cold.  The best snow was in November.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

I'm currently sitting at 36f up here in the Chilliwack river valley your source for fraser river outflow.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS is not as cold as the operational run in the 8-10 day period and gets warmer from there.

 

The control run is on board though.  

[snow_wizard]

I'm currently sitting at 36f up here in the Chilliwack river valley your source for fraser river outflow.

 

Much appreciated too! 

[snow_wizard]

00Z EPS is not as cold as the operational run in the 8-10 day period and gets warmer from there.

 

The control run is on board though.  

 

I'm pretty encouraged by how the GFS, parallel GFS, ECMWF operational, and ECMWF ensemble control are all nearly identical on the progression.  On top of that...historically speaking early December cold waves are normally a pretty good omen for something in January or sometimes February as well.