November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

 

Some lowland snow up by Marysville/Arlington...

[TT-SEA]

Some lowland snow up by Marysville/Arlington...

 

A weakness of the ECMWF is that it is often too generous with that .10 area.   

[Front Ranger]

Given the tropical forcing progression, I do still believe that the biggest potential will be around mid month with the 2nd half of the month giving more opportunity than the first. This may be the case of models hinting at what's to come, but just a bit early

 

That's along the same lines I've been thinking.

[MossMan]

Nice. Yeah I can see them pretty well from here if I walk out onto the street.

 

29* at the pass. This scene won't last real long...

 

 

 

O... was going to mention, I was in North Redmond on Friday evening and got into a real heavy shower that had sleet mixed in.

Too bad all of that lovely snow is about to get wiped out.

[Phil]

Coast to coast!

 

94E1F015-3B08-425D-A568-FF677C0B1269.png

Been ages since we’ve had one of those.

[ShawniganLake]

Been ages since we’ve had one of those.

Did you do a winter forecast this year. What analogues were you thinking?

[TT-SEA]

Did you do a winter forecast this year. What analogues were you thinking?

 

There is no "u" in that word.  

[ShawniganLake]

Steady rain here now. I was hoping today would be a little drier.

[ShawniganLake]

There is no "u" in that word.

[TT-SEA]

41A34F70-CB40-4CAF-B336-33B21EF95D66.png

 

 

I guess its optional. 

[Front Ranger]

It's like Canadian Thanksgiving. It's different, but still kinda means the same thing.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period:

 

 

10-15 day period:

 

[Phil]

Did you do a winter forecast this year. What analogues were you thinking?

I haven’t had enough time to do one. Analogs offer rough low frequency guidance but in years like this with an active intraseasonal/MJO component, you can’t get too specific.

 

The rough outline of my thoughts (from a lower frequency perspective) remains the same: a frontloaded winter in the west, a warm January, and a “muted” February, with a relatively strong jet compared to most +ENSO years.

 

What to watch for:

 

- A big time Pineapple Express event affecting the west between 1/10 and 2/10.

 

- The PV/NAM disruptions (and possibly a SSW) are favored to occur during the front half of winter. If we fail to kill the vortex by 1/15, then a late final warming (like the spring of 1997) is favored, which would coincide with an anomalous pattern in MAM).

 

- I don’t see the +ENSO climo type progression that roasts the West in February this year. I think the warm period will actually be centered in January this year, then maybe again in March (but that’s less certain).

[Blizzard777]

Steady rain here now. I was hoping today would be a little drier.

Rain band swept mighty close to our place. Looked like it hit Seattle though

[ShawniganLake]

I guess its optional.

We like our “U”s up here. It’s also technically “colour”. You could get marked down on your English assignment, but I’d guess the teachers are more relaxed on that now. Also “neighbour”

 

We also spell it centre. “Re” not “er”

[TT-SEA]

Rain band swept mighty close to our place. Looked like it hit Seattle though

 

Just a few sprinkles it appears.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still only 41 at SLE in the fog. 46 with filtered sunshine up here.

[Parksvillewx]

Rain starting to pick up here.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for most of VI. Not too often we get those.

[Requiem]

Rain starting to pick up here.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for most of VI. Not too often we get those.

 

Think Portland's going to be skimped on this one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Think Portland's going to be skimped on this one.

 

Shocker

[Geos]

Just a few sprinkles it appears.

Some sprinkles here but it wasnt even enough to fully wet surfaces.

[ShawniganLake]

The upslope areas of Vancouver Island will probably get more than a foot of rain in the next 48hrs.

[Andrew.]

Wondering if I might have my first sub 40 degree high today. Currently 38.7 and socked in with fog still.

[BLI snowman]

Shocker

Super dry month.

[ShawniganLake]

Rain starting to pick up here.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for most of VI. Not too often we get those.

Barkley Sound should really funnel the rain into the Parksville to Comox corridor with the trajectory tomorrow.

[Requiem]

Shocker

 

I know, right? It's been a while since a meaningful storm. And then we have Chicago, under a blizzard warning in November.

[Requiem]

The upslope areas of Vancouver Island will probably get more than a foot of rain in the next 48hrs.

 

That's good, I guess. If only some of that rain could fall in the Coast Range.

[stuffradio]

There is no "u" in that word.  

 

Colour me surprised!

[Requiem]

How much do you want to bet this "storm" on Monday/Tuesday is a bust for everyone south of Olympia?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That little shortwave on Friday would be a good shot of mountain snow above about 2500'.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would be pretty chilly next weekend. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much do you want to bet this "storm" on Monday/Tuesday is a bust for everyone south of Olympia?

 

Not sure what that even means. But right now it is looking like about 0.50-0.75" for the Willamette Valley and about 1-1.5" up here. Could keep us from a top 10 dry November...Not quite sure.

[Requiem]

Not sure what that even means. But right now it is looking like about 0.50-0.75" for the Willamette Valley and about 1-1.5" up here. Could keep us from a top 10 dry November...Not quite sure.

 

I don't know what I was saying. I guess I just want a significant storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. 

[Kayla]

Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. 

 

Something is definitely wonky this year... High chance sooner rather than later at least some of that cold reaches far enough west to hit you guys as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the real winter weather potential will be generally north of Seattle and in that December 3-5 period. Just a hunch.

[Kayla]

18z GFS looking pretty promising at day 8 for at least some backdoor cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drunkcle could be interesting...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something is definitely wonky this year... High chance sooner rather than later at least some of that cold reaches far enough west to hit you guys as well.

 

I think we're going to have a fun active winter. 

[Kayla]

I think the real winter weather potential will be generally north of Seattle and in that December 3-5 period. Just a hunch.

 

Portland can sometimes do better with the pattern (gorge outflow) that is being hinted on around days 9-10.