11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Tom]

Canadian is similar to GFS..

[East Dubzz]

So (using 10:1 ratios), the NAM has me getting basically nothing, and the GFS has me getting 9-10”.

 

And the storm is set to be in the area early on Sunday.

 

Nice.

[Clinton]

12z NAM...KC to Chi warning snows....@ Clinton, your call from a couple days ago may starting to look good buddy...

 

This is what the LRC says should happen.  I will stay with it I don't buy the GFS and I won't ignore how well the NAM has preformed down here this year.

[Tom]

12z CMC...

 

[bud2380]

Sweeeeettt. Now time to go kick Nebraska’s a** again.

[East Dubzz]

Wow....how much further north is that from thr 6z run??? Crazy. Almost puts me in the 6" range.

The heaviest axis probably took a good 60 mile shift north or so.

[jcwxguy]

Canadian is similar to GFS..

[East Dubzz]

It’s currently a GFS/CMC vs. ICON/NAM battle. Wonder which side the UK & Euro will fall on..

[james1976]

It’s currently a GFS/CMC vs. ICON/NAM battle. Wonder which side the UK & Euro will fall on..

 

Dont forget the FV3!! Lol

[Minny_Weather]

I'll take 4" from this and run with it. No matter the track it looks like that's likely. It's November. Sucks I won't be in Lincoln for it but I'm still flying in Sunday so I'll at least get to enjoy the snowcover.

[hlcater]

Wow that’s a massive change from the otherwise steadfast GFS. Wasn’t expecting it from that model in particular.

[james1976]

Anticipation for the Euro is even higher now.

[bud2380]

Maybe it’s the alcohol but I’m going all in with the GFS and Canadian

[james1976]

Maybe it’s the alcohol but I’m going all in with the GFS and Canadian

haha hows that tailgating going for ya?!

[bud2380]

Ha ha. It’s going good! I’m hoping we serve some humble pie to the Cornhuskers today.

[Iowawx]

I’m not sure what to expect here in Cedar Rapids on Sunday. GFS suggests we’re in a good spot, but want to see a bit more consistency in the models.

[Clinton]

I think what is giving the GFS trouble is how far SE the cold front will push.  The HRRR and the NAM push the front into S.MO, where as The GFS doesn't push the front through.  In the last cycle the front pushed into S.MO.

[Jaycee]

One thing I’m curious about, what are the ratios supposed to be like with this? It looks like it’ll be less than 10:1 if I’m not mistaken.

[Hawkeye]

It appears the FV3-GFS is also going to be back north a bit.  Over the last day of runs, the Canada upper low dipped noticeably farther south the first couple runs, but the last two it's being pulled back north.

[East Dubzz]

One thing I’m curious about, what are the ratios supposed to be like with this? It looks like it’ll be less than 10:1 if I’m not mistaken.

Kuchera is showing less than 10:1 I think, but I don’t remember what the NWS has been saying about it.

[Minny_Weather]

Let's go Huskers!

[james1976]

I think what is giving the GFS trouble is how far SE the cold front will push.  The HRRR and the NAM push the front into S.MO, where as The GFS doesn't push the front through.  In the last cycle the front pushed into S.MO.

Yeah that's true. Not every cycle is exact but that's a good point. GFS obviously having issues. Been more all over the place than any other model.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah that's true. Not every cycle is exact but that's a good point. GFS obviously having issues. Been more all over the place than any other model.

NAM hasn’t exactly been very consistent either. Pretty big jumps between the 00z, 06z, & 12z

[hlcater]

One thing I’m curious about, what are the ratios supposed to be like with this? It looks like it’ll be less than 10:1 if I’m not mistaken.

RC and another reliable poster on amwx we’re talking higher than 10:1 especially west. With less than 10:1 in Chitown.

[james1976]

NAM hasn’t exactly been very consistent either. Pretty big jumps between the 00z, 06z, & 12z

True. I think the Euro and FV3 have prolly been most consistent.

[East Dubzz]

True. I think the Euro and FV3 have prolly been most consistent.

Speaking of the FV3, it’s not loading on Tropical Tidbits. Has been stuck on HR 36 for a while now.

[james1976]

Speaking of the FV3, it’s not loading on Tropical Tidbits. Has been stuck on HR 36 for a while now.

Speaking of FV3.....is that supposed to be replacing the GFS op? Thought I read that somewhere but maybe misread it.

[bud2380]

FV3 looks real good

[East Dubzz]

Speaking of the FV3, it’s not loading on Tropical Tidbits. Has been stuck on HR 36 for a while now.

But then loads right after that. FV3 went north as well. And very strong.

[jcwxguy]

[East Dubzz]

FV3 looks real good

Pretty decent agreement with the GFS. Slightly more north, but not a ton.

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie seems about the same-- maybe a little N but hard to tell until precip maps out

[james1976]

fv3p_asnow_eus_12.png

Nice. A small N jump from 6z. Puts me back into Warning snows.

[East Dubzz]

Whoever gets in the sweet spot for this storm is really going to see some nice snowfall.

[james1976]

That cutoff on the north side on all the models is brutal. Riding the edge bigtime right now with current runs. Nice seeing the N trend though.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie a slight NW shift. Probably a county or two in iA.

[Grizzcoat]

[East Dubzz]

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

A definite improvement there. Trend is definitely back north slightly.. except for the NAM, of course haha.