11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[james1976]

That's a ballsy call for DMX but also a great "view" into how they forecast.

[Tom]

Odds looking better for N IL to see at least 4" or more of snow....

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

SREF snow total mean and total spread nudged N with recent 9Z runs, though amounts down slightly.

 

compare/contrast -

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

[Minny_Weather]

I've been guilty of this before I know, but now that I'm in the spectator seat for a storm in Nebraska, I fail to see the point of calling a storm cancel when there's one bad suite of models. It's still 2 days out and the very sudden jump South looked kinda suspicious to me. Of course next time there's a storm potential and I'm actually in Nebraska for it, I'll probably ignore what I just said.

 

As for OAX issuing the watch, they've been really paranoid about amounts since they flopped the 10/14 storm. Since then, they've been overforecasting amounts. I will say it's a nice break from the conservative/snowlover76 BS they usually pull.

[KCSmokey]

It’s been over a 1,000 days since KC metro had a warning. Time will tell!

[Tom]

SREF snow total mean and total spread nudged N with recent 9Z runs, though amounts down slightly.

 

compare/contrast -

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

This a neat site...thanks Grizz!

[Clinton]

It’s been over a 1,000 days since KC metro had a warning. Time will tell!

 

That is about to end!

[Grizzcoat]

This a neat site...thanks Grizz!

Some of us learned the old school way-- before TT and PV and most others you had to use the GOVT site for GFS,ETA and NGM-- anyone else member the Not Good Model?? Actually was OK inside 24 hours for snow events.

[Niko]

Odd how the Ukie runs the hvy precip all across SMI but Euro says "no" keep it south of the border!

Still, not bad at all.

[Clinton]

NAM coming in stronger through hr30.

[East Dubzz]

The SLP appears to be in almost exactly the same location at HR 48 and just 1mb weaker. However, the snow shield is further south.

[East Dubzz]

NAM went back south again.

[East Dubzz]

NAM went back south again.

Snow amounts are less widespread than the 06z GFS, but the band of heavy snow actually has a very similar placement.

[Stormhunter87]

Based on the setup it seems the GFS is going to have the last laugh. Sigh oh well I guess there will be more this year

[james1976]

Based on the setup it seems the GFS is going to have the last laugh. Sigh oh well I guess there will be more this year

Des Moines is still not buying the GFS but we'll see. They are actually taking the FV3 over the GFS op......for now anyway.

[Stormhunter87]

Even that fv3 run is south. The original GFS started that trend. The current run is to far south but the trend it started lol

[East Dubzz]

Was hoping for a continued north trend today, as I believe the storm is started to come on shore and be sampled more. NAM obviously didn’t provide that, so let’s see what the rest of the models have to offer. If they all trend slightly south again, that would about wrap up my hopes for getting in the sweet spot on this one. Hopefully the NAM was just off it’s rocker for a run, but we’ll see.

[james1976]

Even that fv3 run is south. The original GFS started that trend. The current run is to far south but the trend it started lol

Latest fv3 came back north a touch

[East Dubzz]

Latest fv3 came back north a touch

Yup. I’m hoping to see that trend continue on this run, as all the models this morning seemed to be going north slightly against until the 12z NAM. Still plenty of time for this to shift, but a turn back south again would be rather discouraging.

[james1976]

Yup. I’m hoping to see that trend continue on this run, as all the models this morning seemed to be going north slightly against until the 12z NAM. Still plenty of time for this to shift, but a turn back south again would be rather discouraging.

Yeah, getting late in the game for any south trends!

[bud2380]

ICON south as well.

[East Dubzz]

ICON south as well.

But about the same as the 06z run, and still further north than the 00z run. So not a south movement in that, at least.

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah fv3 is a touch north but sadly at this point I'm not holding my breath. Happens every time. I get super pumped for a storm and nothing. Lol. I should add all the local forecasters are going 2-3 and oax is locked into 3-4 for Omaha metro

[Tom]

12z NAM...KC to Chi warning snows....@ Clinton, your call from a couple days ago may starting to look good buddy...

[East Dubzz]

The ICON actually brings the snow shield a little further NW in southern Iowa, but the track is more easterly and doesn’t turn as far north once it gets into Missouri / Illinois.

 

Compare the last three runs of the ICON, though, and you’ll see a definitely shift north in southern iowa.

 

GFS, ICON, and NAM actually seem like they’re in pretty decent agreement on the 12z runs.

[hlcater]

The ICON actually brings the snow shield a little further NW in southern Iowa, but the track is more easterly and doesn’t turn as far north once it gets into Missouri / Illinois.

 

Compare the last three runs of the ICON, though, and you’ll see a definitely shift north in southern iowa.

Id assume that it’s probably a result of lesser phasing. The more phased solutions are the ones that hook more NWward earlier.

[East Dubzz]

12z GFS up and running... let’s see what it gives us.

[East Dubzz]

Could be wrong, but looks to be coming in slightly north..

[bud2380]

Gfs looks North. But I’m also tailgating.

[East Dubzz]

Gfs looks North. But I’m also tailgating.

It definitely is through HR 42. These next few frames will be very telling..

[jcwxguy]

GFS is north

[bud2380]

Definitely back north

[East Dubzz]

Oh yeah... this run is definitely further north.

[bud2380]

I’m not surprised. This seems to always happen when storms do a late southern trend. End up back further north in the end.

[East Dubzz]

Oh man, liking this run. Let’s just forgot about the ICON & NAM, shift this maybe 30 miles north, and then go ahead and lock it in

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

Much better phase on the GFS...stronger/juicier solution

[East Dubzz]

I’m not surprised. This seems to always happen when storms do a late southern trend. End up back further north in the end.

That’s what I was thinking was gonna happen until the NAM went way south. Hopefully that was just a bad run, though.

 

The swath of heavier snow seems a little more robust on this run as well.

[james1976]

Wow....how much further north is that from thr 6z run??? Crazy. Almost puts me in the 6" range.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112312/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png