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11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Remember that ridiculous gradient in the November 2015 storm? Like 11" at ORD and 1" in downtown Chicago. I'm not saying we'll see that again but ORD's far northwest location *could* end up making a significant difference. We'll see.

Yup, I remember that one real well...not only that, but the dynamics with this system are awesome. Today’s runs have shown what I anticipated, as long as this system maintains its strength, it’ll allow the atmosphere to cool better the closer you are to the SLP. You can see the colder 850’s showing up.

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Stormy
Stormy

Hi everyone.... this is my first time posting on here though I've been lurking on this forum for several years already. It seems I'm to busy to keep up with all the comments so decided I don't have ti

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

FV3-GFS has been embarrassed badly and decided to withdraw from further competition.

Tom
Tom

Thank God I shoveled last night bc today was a little better. Bottom half was slush/slop and top half was powder. The warm ground didn’t help and the last batch of snow that fell across NE IL droppe

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Lol, if it comes to getting 5-6 inches here in Omaha I'll take it. Biggest in years. But a word of caution to anyone just east of here, this thing has been modeled on the ensembles still as going way north and some even no storm at all. This seems like the tricksters storm so dont get your hopes up too fast!

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Tom you’re gonna reel this baby in. Book it buddy.

 

Wait a minute! You said I was... :lol: :lol:

 

Seriously tho, NAM's gonna be HOTNESS for SMI and a NAM-EURO team-up's a great thing this season.

 

Somebody's gonna get slammered!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Yup, I remember that one real well...not only that, but the dynamics with this system are awesome. Today’s runs have shown what I anticipated, as long as this system maintains its strength, it’ll allow the atmosphere to cool better the closer you are to the SLP. You can see the colder 850’s showing up.

 

You called it buddy! Compared to Nov '15 this will be a beast of a storm for whomever the (holiday) bell tolls. Lakeshore warmth will ofc hinder, as it did even in Nov storms of yore in the Northland, but to say I'm now getting pumped would be an understatement. Traveling now for the dinner plans so I won't be here til later tonight for the 0z runs. Enjoy!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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850's stay below 0C from the south side of Chicago on that run...once the real heavy precip begins, temps are in low 30's (ish) but crash throughout the event which I'd imagine would produce better snow production. Man, that defo band looks redic...I'll say this, I'm more optimistic today than yesterday for Chitown. 12z guidance thus far suggests a southern trend since yesterday's 12z suite. Long ways away till I'm fully on board. Fun to look at though.

 

At Hoosier, I totally agree with you regarding the heavier stuff being in the NW burbs as is the case with these early season systems. The Euro is suggesting 45-55 mph wind gusts along the shore for 12+ hours.

Can you show the snow total further west if you get a chance?! Thanks in advance!
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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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I have noticed that but for sure how good this model is.

I have NEVER seen the Navgem or Nogaps mentioned EVER in an AFD. The model is being discontinued early 2019' and replaced with the Sea Air and Land model.  HA!! :o)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z EPS ticked south with the heaviest precip and snowfall....ORD snow mean now up to 3-4" with more the farther NW you go...6"+ mean trended SE as well....DSM still looks great into E IA/S WI...LNK/OMA still sitting at comfy 4" mean, N MO looking better also....Jaster's area now in the 2-3" mean with more the farther north you go in MI.

 

@ Gable, here you are...

 

 

 

 

 

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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Yep, I have been missed in all directions so far hoping to cash in with at least 3. Your right, the FV3 gfs is awesome to look at with the long range snow forecast!! I would take half that and be happy.

I had to look at the weather.us snow depth map. Nice of Tom to post also. Still may be some changes ahead.

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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I had to look at the weather.us snow depth map. Nice of Tom to post also. Still may be some changes ahead.

Ya I did too but I like those other maps better. Always nice for everyone to share that! I wouldn’t be surprised to start seeing watches being posted this evening or tomorrow.

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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I didn't see anyone post the Ukie or JMA today...south trend in those models as well...12z UKIE takes a track just south of KC/STL/INDY/DTX....

 

jma_apcpn_us_5.png

Nice stripe for Omaha folks!

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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