11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Tony]

While you guys hash out where this storm eventually ends up, you all have a great and safe Thanksgiving. Family Food and Football so enjoy the day!

[Jaycee]

12z GEFS mean coming in south compared to 06z. N/C IL jackpot.

Yeeeet. I’ll take it. Even though I’m out of town I’m excited to come back to a winter wonderland (hopefully)!

[Tom]

12z GEFS mean coming in south compared to 06z. N/C IL jackpot.

Man, as good as that sounds, I'm really shocked at how big of a shift south that has put the heavier band....does that include Chicago??

[Tom]

D**n, that's a big uptick in precip....can't tell how much is rain/snow....

 

[Bryan1117]

I would be ok with this result. So regular GFS furthest south; hopefully it's the outlier. Will be interesting seeing what the euro does.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 

Lock that in for Omaha baby! LOL

 

At this point I am hoping we see something good from this system... I would frankly be happy with 2-3 inches of snow at this point - anything more this time of year would be a big bonus.

[hlcater]

NAM is very similar to most of the 00z guidance. Works on smashing much of Iowa through the end of the run.

[Grizzcoat]

I don't know if it's right ; but d**n has it been consistent-

[hlcater]

snku_acc.us_mw.pngI don't know if it's right ; but d**n has it been consistent-

I find it interesting how it’s consitently at odds with the model it’s going to replace. Could be a good thing, could be a bad thing. We’ll have to see which verifies more accurately. My money is on the FV3.

[Stormhunter87]

I find it interesting how it’s consitently at odds with the model it’s going to replace. Could be a good thing, could be a bad thing. We’ll have to see which verifies more accurately. My money is on the FV3.

I would love to see the fv3 correct but it has not been the greatest so far this year

[Grizzcoat]

The big upper gyre in southern Canada keeps progressing farther south and east on the GFS, ends up squashing the storm south and east.  It would really be something to have three big snow events miss me to the south in November.

I work in the weather field but m not a degreed MET but have 20 + years of earning a living in the weather field. Just got done talking with a co-worker who is degreed and he says that the reason the some of the models (ICON,GFS and to a degree the UKMET) are treating the system more progressive is because of how the upper air injested in the 12Z runs is handling the upper gyre mentioned above. Reasons why it was not as evident on the 6Z runs. 

[hlcater]

I would love to see the fv3 correct but it has not been the greatest so far this year

It has been in the tropics, in all basins. Consistently outscoring the operational. Granted that’s kinda different, but a better track record than 1 or 2 winter storms. I DO think it’s probably overdoing amounts however.

[Grizzcoat]

I find it interesting how it’s consitently at odds with the model it’s going to replace. Could be a good thing, could be a bad thing. We’ll have to see which verifies more accurately. My money is on the FV3.

Maybe there is a reason why it's being replaced. THe NAM has outperformed it this year.

[Niko]

Per Accu-weather:

 

 

Airline passengers departing, connecting or arriving in Chicago from late Sunday to Monday should anticipate substantial delays and possible flight cancellations.

For some people, an earlier flight through Chicago may be wise choice. Those with flights in or out of Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh are likely to have an increasing risk of delays or cancellations spanning Sunday night and Monday.

 

Something to keep a close eye on. Looks like Chicago might be in for some good snows. Still, models are trying to figure this one out.

[St Paul Storm]

Man, as good as that sounds, I'm really shocked at how big of a shift south that has put the heavier band....does that include Chicago??

The trend is your friend. Not sure how much more south this can go but you’re baby stepping.

[jcwxguy]

Solid hit on Euro for eastern Nebraska

[Tom]

The trend is your friend. Not sure how much more south this can go but you’re baby stepping.

You ain't kidding, but I'm still skeptical of the warm LM that will inhibit snowfall near the lake.  No real true arctic air to tap out ahead of the system.  Meantime, 12 GEPS have come in south also...real big tick south...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/066/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/078/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/090/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/114/qpf_acc.conus.png

[East Dubzz]

From the DVN:

 

“As with other discussions, the main forecast concern is Sunday and the track of the surface low and subsequent impacts. The ECMWF is the slowest of all guidance, the GFS is the fastest and the GEM is in between. The GFS and GEM solutions offer snow quicker and further east across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. The ECMWF has the heaviest snow from central IA to SW Wisconsin. The GEFS ensemble mean and operational are quite similar, yet some of the solutions still show a slower movement and even further south movement, the plurality of members agree with the operational GFS. Leading to some confidence in that solution. The new FV3 is slow, a placement more in between the GEM and ECMWF. Current blended forecast is weighted towards the GFS and may be too quick with the rain snow transition. The forecast also has a swath of 4 to 6 inches of snow from Marshalltown to north of Dubuque. With all that said, historically the ECMWF solution makes the most sense as the systems usually come out slower and further north. Currently think that the GFS is just too fast with the system. This is obviously a very dynamic system and guidance is struggling with a solution this far out. Those with travel plans on Sunday need to keep up to date on the forecast as this forecast and confidence in that forecast will change.”

[Stormhunter87]

Solid hit on Euro for eastern Nebraska

Oh that's good to hear. Wish I could access the euro model.

[Stormhunter87]

It has been in the tropics, in all basins. Consistently outscoring the operational. Granted that’s kinda different, but a better track record than 1 or 2 winter storms. I DO think it’s probably overdoing amounts however.

Didn't know that, honestly didn't know anything about fv3 until I noticed it one day on pivotal after that October snow storm in Nebraska.

[Tom]

12z Euro coming in with a big hit for N IL....

[jcwxguy]

Lnk

[jcwxguy]

Gretna, mci

[Hoosier]

You ain't kidding, but I'm still skeptical of the warm LM that will inhibit snowfall near the lake. No real true arctic air to tap out ahead of the system. Meantime, 12 GEPS have come in south also...real big tick south...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/066/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/078/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/090/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cmce/2018112212/114/qpf_acc.conus.png

Southern buoy is 44. That is cooler than many years at this point in November but definitely still warm enough to be a concern as long as the flow is onshore. I do think Chicago could get a period of pretty intense conditions on the backside after the changeover (snow and wind) but don't expect the heavy amounts.

[Tony]

12z Euro coming in with a big hit for N IL....

Hard to believe that we actually have a chance of seeing measurable snow for our area..at least today it is showing that. Still skeptical but glad to see.

[jcwxguy]

Olu

[East Dubzz]

12z Euro coming in with a big hit for N IL....

Is it slightly south from the last run? Similar?

[Grizzcoat]

Precip is more expansive in C/S IA.  Here is DSM that gets jacked--

 

SUN 06Z 25-NOV 2.3 1.1 1009 92 88 0.04 548 540
SUN 12Z 25-NOV -0.4 0.4 1008 93 99 0.16 546 539
SUN 18Z 25-NOV -2.8 -2.8 1009 89 98 0.58 541 534
MON 00Z 26-NOV -3.8 -7.6 1013 79 97 0.46 540 530
MON 06Z 26-NOV -6.3 -7.2 1018 74 7 0.02 541 527
MON 12Z 26-NOV -8.8 -6.0 1022 75 13 0.00 543 526

 

these upcoming snow maps should be fun to look at.

[jcwxguy]

12z Euro coming in with a big hit for N IL....

no kidding. Wow

[bud2380]

Wow Des Moines sitting pretty. Can you post KCID and/or KIOW Grizz? Thanks.

[jcwxguy]

Map

[james1976]

South trend. Not looking good up here.

[East Dubzz]

My lord, lock it in!!

[james1976]

I80 special. Des Moines to Chicago gonna get blasted.

[East Dubzz]

Map

Thanks. Appreciate the map, though the colors are hard to differentiate.

[Tom]

850's stay below 0C from the south side of Chicago on that run...once the real heavy precip begins, temps are in low 30's (ish) but crash throughout the event which I'd imagine would produce better snow production.  Man, that defo band looks redic...I'll say this, I'm more optimistic today than yesterday for Chitown.  12z guidance thus far suggests a southern trend since yesterday's 12z suite.  Long ways away till I'm fully on board.  Fun to look at though.

 

At Hoosier, I totally agree with you regarding the heavier stuff being in the NW burbs as is the case with these early season systems.  The Euro is suggesting 45-55 mph wind gusts along the shore for 12+ hours.

[Grizzcoat]

Wow Des Moines sitting pretty. Can you post KCID and/or KIOW Grizz? Thanks.

IOW-

 

SUN 12Z 25-NOV 0.6 1.2 1009 94 100 0.07 547 540

SUN 18Z 25-NOV -0.9 -1.5 1006 90 100 0.28 544 539

MON 00Z 26-NOV -1.6 -4.3 1006 91 99 0.65 538 533

MON 06Z 26-NOV -3.4 -8.3 1011 82 95 0.32 539 530

MON 12Z 26-NOV -6.9 -5.5 1017 77 9 0.05 541 528

 

CID-

 

SUN 12Z 25-NOV -0.1 0.2 1010 92 98 0.05 547 539

SUN 18Z 25-NOV -1.8 -1.0 1007 90 100 0.33 544 538

MON 00Z 26-NOV -2.2 -5.0 1008 89 99 0.68 539 533

MON 06Z 26-NOV -3.9 -8.2 1012 79 90 0.24 539 530

MON 12Z 26-NOV -7.4 -5.3 1018 77 9 0.02 541 528 

[james1976]

Grizz....Hawkeye... bud....eastdubz all sitting pretty right now.

[Hoosier]

850's stay below 0C from the south side of Chicago on that run...once the real heavy precip begins, temps are in low 30's (ish) but crash throughout the event which I'd imagine would produce better snow production. Man, that defo band looks redic...I'll say this, I'm more optimistic today than yesterday for Chitown. 12z guidance thus far suggests a southern trend since yesterday's 12z suite. Long ways away till I'm fully on board. Fun to look at though.

 

At Hoosier, I totally agree with you regarding the heavier stuff being in the NW burbs as is the case with these early season systems. The Euro is suggesting 45-55 mph wind gusts along the shore for 12+ hours.

Remember that ridiculous gradient in the November 2015 storm? Like 11" at ORD and 1" in downtown Chicago. I'm not saying we'll see that again but ORD's far northwest location *could* end up making a significant difference. We'll see.

[hlcater]

I love that Euro run. 12"+ in that heavy band the whole way and it looks to be at least 14-16" just south of DBQ.

[bud2380]

Wow. This would be the biggest storm for my backyard since the GHD blizzard of 2011.