January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 looks pretty decent so far

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km stronger than 12z showing 50kt gusts for PDX tomorrow? Not sure I buy that. We'll see!

 

[El_Nina]

Wow. 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km stronger than 12z showing 50kt gusts for PDX tomorrow? Not sure I buy that. We'll see!

 

Goodbye fog

[Jbolin]

It's currently extremely foggy, misty and smells like a** outside.

Sounds "boring" 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 much better amplification and tilt, but the trough is digging off BC a bit too much.

[luvssnow_spokane]

ECMWF hour 144

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Goodbye fog

Fog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing.

 

12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO through Day 6 is WORLDS better than the GFS, FV3, ICON, GEM, 9z Himalayan Sherpa model, the Zimbabwean Malaria model, etc.

[Requiem]

Fog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing.

 

12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutes

 

I love a good east wind! Should be roaring in the West Hills come tomorrow, and these events seem pretty poorly forecasted (so they're usually surprisingly strong or weak).

[El_Nina]

Fog gone here near west Gresham with east wind developing.

 

12z ECMWF in 11 hours 14 minutes

Still socked in here. But since it's not foggy in Gresham then I'm probably about to clear out. I'm curious how quick this is gonna go.

[TT-SEA]

EURO through Day 6 is WORLDS better than the GFS, FV3, ICON, GEM, 9z Himalayan Sherpa model, the Zimbabwean Malaria model, etc.

Actually quite similar to GFS at 144 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Real close to mega cold. No split flow junk anywhere. Trough energy is nice and consolidated. We need the arctic trough to dig more southward and not out off BC Days 5-6 though. C'MON!!!!

 

12z GFS in 8 hours 48 minutes

[TT-SEA]

 

Real close to mega cold. No split flow junk anywhere. Trough energy is nice and consolidated. We need the arctic trough to dig more southward and not out off BC Days 5-6 though. C'MON!!!!

 

12z GFS in 8 hours 48 minutes

 

 

Looks like the 12Z run.     

 

The cold air does split... too much energy going offshore and then into CA.   

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TT-SEA]

Day 8

No go.

 

We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not good

[MossMan]

No go.

 

We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east.

Good thing there is still time for things to improve further.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through next Monday morning per 00Z ECMWF...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

No go.

 

We are in no man's land again like the 12Z run. Cold to the north and south and entire trough shifting east.

Yep. I know. We need the trough to slide down the BC coast, not dig out off it, then dig southward and continue to do so. Not there yet.

[TT-SEA]

Good thing there is still time for things to improve further.

 

 

Certainly could still improve... but the ECMWF is not improving right now.    Nor is the GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the EPS and 6z/12z runs tomorrow morning. C'MON!!!!

[Requiem]

The ensembles still look perfectly fine, to my knowledge. Guess the 00Z was on the warmer side...

[Phil]

The 00z FV3 delivers an Arctic Blast to the PNW.

 

I think the FV3 has a -NAO/ridge bridge bias in clown range. That s**t hasn’t happened since the 2008-12 blip.

[Gradient Keeper]

11:12 PM Pressure Gradients
Easterly gradients increasing quickly now. Sharp pressure rises noted over the Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. Check out graphs for The Dalles and Yakima! WOW! We usually don't see pressure rises this sharp unless an arctic frontal passage is involved.

 

As of 11 PM
[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -4.1mb
TTD-DLS: -4.1mb
[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -5.3mb
PDX-MWH: -5.4mb
PDX-GEG: -3.6mb
OTH-GEG: -7.9mb
[southwest British Columbia/Fraser River Gradient]
BLI-YWL: -7.3mb
*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale
YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, OTH = North Bend, GEG = Spokane
YWL = Williams Lake BC, BLI = Bellingham
A -negative value denotes easterly or northerly/offshore flow
A +positive value denotes onshore/westerly flow

 

[Deweydog]

We need the cold air to get here to get cold.

[Requiem]

11:12 PM Pressure Gradients

Easterly gradients increasing quickly now. Sharp pressure rises noted over the Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. Check out graphs for The Dalles and Yakima! WOW! We usually don't see pressure rises this sharp unless an arctic frontal passage is involved.

 

As of 11 PM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]

PDX-DLS: -4.1mb

TTD-DLS: -4.1mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]

PDX-YKM: -5.3mb

PDX-MWH: -5.4mb

PDX-GEG: -3.6mb

OTH-GEG: -7.9mb

[southwest British Columbia/Fraser River Gradient]

BLI-YWL: -7.3mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale

YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, OTH = North Bend, GEG = Spokane

YWL = Williams Lake BC, BLI = Bellingham

A -negative value denotes easterly or northerly/offshore flow

A +positive value denotes onshore/westerly flow

 

 

Oh yeah, east wind just started here. 

[Phil]

Here’s the next slosh attempt w/ more westerlies/dateline forcing upcoming. Might have a better shot to consolidate and complete a niño rolling into 2019/20.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks like it might get snowy on Day 11-12. Extrapolation sensation.

[Phil]

But once the next niño finishes, it’s go time for the westward retraction and consolidation of the IPWP.

 

http://www.climate4you.com/images/PacificEquatorialSSTanomaly.GIF

[snow_wizard]

The EPS mean continues to trend colder.  It looks more like the FV3 than anything.

[Gradient Keeper]

The EPS mean continues to trend colder.  It looks more like the FV3 than anything.

That sounds encouraging

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 26 minutes. I won't be here for the night shift. I'm going to try this sleep thing.

[Deweydog]

Fog has lifted here quite a bit. Ugh.

[snow_wizard]

I think the FV3 has a -NAO/ridge bridge bias in clown range. That s**t hasn’t happened since the 2008-12 blip.

 

I hope that actually happens.  It's good for everyone.

[ShawniganLake]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The EPS mean continues to trend colder. It looks more like the FV3 than anything.

Seems like all of the big 3 op runs were warm outliers Sunday evening.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hard to complain about that... Although I'm sure someone will try.

 

When you have the EPS showing the best, most-prolonged shot at something decent all winter it adds at least +30% points to the chances of this thing happening. One of the best (if not the best) models to have in our corner.

 

Let's just say I'm 'cautiously optimistic'. Ah, the famous last words of any PNW weather weenie.

Oh this has already been jinxed by PDX NWS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Surprisingly, they haven't issued a Winter Storm Warning yet so the jinx is not fully complete.

I’m sure they’re strongly considering it.