January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS looks good. Bring on the model wars!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No major improvements on the GFS though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing what a high water mark the 12z GFS was yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the mountains could get snow.

[El_Nina]

Fog has lifted here quite a bit. Ugh.

Same! UGH

[El_Nina]

Once again, I have to reiterate the fact that weather is insignificant to real real life stuff. Be thankful

[MikeInEverett]

Has there been an FV3 run that WASN'T good in the last week or so? It's almost laughable at this point.

 

[MossMan]

Ensembles still look okayish.

[Tyler Mode]

These cameras are less than a mile apart.  One's completely socked in, the other clear. 

 

Still very dense fog and drizzle here in Battle Ground. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensembles were slightly better than the 00z ones.

[Jesse]

Clear and 34 here this morning with what looks to be a beautiful sunrise beginning.

[Jesse]

Once again, I have to reiterate the fact that weather is insignificant to real real life stuff. Be thankful

Weather is part of real life.

[FroYoBro]

Weather is part of real life.

Yes, but very, very low on the totem pole of importance for most people.

 

Unless we are talking about disasters or farmers I guess.

[Jesse]

Yes, but very, very low on the totem pole of importance for most people.

 

Unless we are talking about disasters or farmers I guess.

Yeah those were a few examples that came to mind. I see it as sort of a package deal I guess. There are a lot of things people care about that you could argue are really insignificant in the grand scheme of things.

[Tyler Mode]

Meanwhile in Alabama...only a couple of inches but that's still more than we have!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Huntsville AL340 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

...RAINFALL QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT....A strong cold front will move eastward through the region latetonight into Tuesday morning. Rainfall overspreading the regionalong and just ahead of the front will quickly changeover to snowfrom west to east in the wake of the frontal passage.

[TT-SEA]

Crystal clear here and 46... but not much of an east wind yet.    

 

Looks like the inversion is just lowering.    There is still some fog down in the valley here but this camera was completely socked in just 15 minutes ago so its improving quickly now even down there.

 

[Jesse]

PDX down to 35.

[TT-SEA]

I posted this picture 4 years ago this morning on 1/28/2015 from the same North Bend web cam.      We had very similar conditions that morning with a lowering inversion and fog in the valley.

 

[Jesse]

Completely insignificant sunrise this morning.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z running now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Totally lost the ICON now.

[Tyler Mode]

The fog started to lift just at sunrise...with strong east winds at the 400' level above Battle Ground while I was flying the drone.

 

Note: You can see Mt. Jefferson off in the distance to the right!

[Phil]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Awesome pics Tyler.

[Jesse]

The fog started to lift just at sunrise...with strong east winds at the 400' level above Battle Ground while I was flying the drone.

 

Note: You can see Mt. Jefferson off in the distance to the right!

Ok you win the sunrise battle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 72 and you can already tell its going to be a dud in the realistic range. Problem is the initial trough is baggy and splitty. Easy to see the difference when comparing to the good runs.

[Bryant]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1089854555637063680?s=19

[Jesse]

Hour 72 and you can already tell its going to be a dud in the realistic range. Problem is the initial trough is baggy and splitty. Easy to see the difference when comparing to the good runs.

At least the FV3 looks awesome.

[TT-SEA]

Hour 72 and you can already tell its going to be a dud in the realistic range. Problem is the initial trough is baggy and splitty. Easy to see the difference when comparing to the good runs.

 

 

A trend that started yesterday morning on all the models.   

 

And the problem with the ensembles is that there will still be a deep trough across the West... but the devil is in the details with the splitting and the bulk of the energy going into CA.    So the blended ensemble mean still looks troughy but it might not mean anything great.  

[Jbolin]

Completely insignificant sunrise this morning.

 

4D6F1752-0F57-4D6E-A1F6-2E6F206ADE3F.jpeg

Happy ******* Monday bro

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has some rain on Friday and then is pretty much dry for the weekend with most of the rain in CA.

 

Split flow in charge.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon... no Super Bowl snowstorm for us.

 

[Phil]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1089854555637063680?s=19

Not exactly niño climo.

 

If you filter out the ERW feedback onto the RMMs, the real MJO is actually in the WHEM right now, preparing to orbit back into the IO/IPWP, where it meet up with the ERW train in the Indo-China domain. Hence the tendency towards the broad NPAC anticyclone in the long range ensemble means.

 

FWIW, this ERW cycle that has been ongoing across IPWP/WPAC (between 120E and the dateline) has built a low pass signal there which has been amplified w/ each MJO crossing. That’s a classic pre-niño forcing structure in the post-1998 era.

[TT-SEA]

Crystal clear here and 46... but not much of an east wind yet.    

 

Looks like the inversion is just lowering.    There is still some fog down in the valley here but this camera was completely socked in just 15 minutes ago so its improving quickly now even down there.

 

 

 

And its gone...

 

[Phil]

Not exactly niño climo.

 

If you filter out the ERW feedback onto the RMMs, the real MJO is actually in the WHEM right now, preparing to orbit back into the IO/IPWP, where it meet up with the ERW train in the Indo-China domain. Hence the tendency towards the broad NPAC anticyclone in the long range ensemble means.

 

FWIW, this ERW cycle that has been ongoing across IPWP/WPAC (between 120E and the dateline) has built a low pass signal there which has been amplified w/ each MJO crossing. That’s a classic pre-niño forcing structure in the post-1998 era.

Which is why, given said amplification (over what are already the warmest waters on the planet) and the state of AAM transfer, you can probably bet that models are underestimating the degree of dateline/central Pacific forcing during the middle and/or later part of February at this range.

 

Which makes me think this -PNA regime won’t be as stable or long lasting in the extended range as some of the ensemble means suggest (sorry to be the bearer of bad news). Also, the EPS can have trouble propagating the MJO across the IPWP when initializing the MJO in the IO/late WHEM. So that might be something to watch for. Perhaps this will be one of the rare cases where the GEFS leads the way, with its WHEM bias actually playing correctly.

[Esquimalt]

The 12Z GFS continues to show the cold air getting shoved east. GEM looking okay with a glancing blow with the cold.  Overall not liking the trends, but as long as we have the EPS on our sides I'm not too unhappy. 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS continues to show the cold air getting shoved east. GEM looking okay with a glancing blow with the cold.  Overall not liking the trends, but as long as we have the EPS on our sides I'm not too unhappy. 

 

 

I don't think the EPS is really on our side.   The blended mean shows a western trough and that is pretty much a given now... but that does not mean cold and snow.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

As long as the block is in the 145 to 150 range we have a good chance of something good despite what models show now.  I'm happy with some cold nw flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM and GFS are not even close to anything interesting. It's amazing how good the GFS and its ensembles were trending and how quickly the totally did an about face. I guess we should have expected it, but a continuation of the same split flow pattern which has been dominant is almost a given now. Maybe some snow at the passes, yay.

[TT-SEA]

The GEM and GFS are not even close to anything interesting. It's amazing how good the GFS and its ensembles were trending and how quickly the totally did an about face. I guess we should have expected it, but a continuation of the same split flow pattern which has been dominant is almost a given now. Maybe some snow at the passes, yay.

 

 

I agree.  

 

The ensembles can definitely give false hope as we have seen all winter.    

[Phil]

As long as the block is in the 145 to 150 range we have a good chance of something good despite what models show now. I'm happy with some cold nw flow.

What about the Salmon? Don’t they deserve a winter too?