Clinton Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The runs tonight are looking stronger and more organized as expected. It's going to be an exciting weekend for most of us. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Cmc more inline with GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Exact same thing haappened for the Blizzard of DEC 09. 1-3" out in front of the main system here in C.IA. I don't believe this has it's roots in the Bering Sea (that one did) but this one is getting "somewhat" close. That one had 20+mb gradient over the state of IA and sustained 40-45mph winds with gusts to over 60. One of my fave's here. We did not get your bliz winds but due to the occlusion timed just right, we did get a surprise LehS storm of 10" all the way into Marshall. BC hit 12" and Kzoo was tops with 14". Total surprise as I wasn't expecting a thing here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The runs tonight are looking stronger and more organized as expected. It's going to be an exciting weekend for most of us. Dream weekend, especially for those side-lined last storm. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS took a big step in the right direction! 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Cmc more inline with GFSYes but weaker and really doesn't develop the snow well after the other models. Canadian by far my least favourite run tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 CMC looks blah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I agree, CMC not the greatest. Wish the two would phase quicker over Nebraska. But things are looking good. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Don't think I've ever seen a LES signature south of Lk Michigan to like Terre Haute!! Wild GGEM stuff. The drunk model 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I agree, CMC not the greatest. Wish the two would phase quicker over Nebraska. But things are looking good. It was actually a massive step in the correct direction considering the wild swings seen in recent runs. It'll come to the party when it counts, incognito dressed up as the RGEM, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie is way south and weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie about 75-100 miles S of GFS at HR 96 with posistion of L. It also does not cut it as fast-- wait until after 120 to 144. If someone could post the precip maps POST HR 72 that would be great. Thanks in advance. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Meanwhile, I have a rare headline and could care less...strange winter Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie =yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 15/0z ICON still a southern option, but at least not a complete whiff like last night's run.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie =yuck Sad as last night's run was epic. Models keep taking turns showing the potential then losing it. Thursday before good sampling so bouncing will no doubt continue.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Let’s see what the euro has to say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie is quite similar to the the ICON in where it ihinks the L is from 96 to 120. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z GFS ensembles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fv3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 is awesome. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro N of UKie--- that is for sure. precip will be intersting 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro might even be farther north than gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro and GFS are almost uncanny in consitentecy here in C.IA. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I sense a small trend S overall. It makes sense with not such a strong L and overall moderate at best WAA out in front. That coupled with SERIOS CAA to the NW that says get the heck out of my way. LOW man wins and we are not talking pressure. I would expect slight shifts S in future guidance. Amazing this is being done with little to no snowover in C.MN and points W though E. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Actually the EURO came a tad north after comparing it to 12z. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I almost got my hopes up for this weekend. Next runs. You folks up there are finna get smashed. That should be quite fun to watch. 1° with no snow is going to be like driving nails through my skull if it verifies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Actually the EURO came a tad north after comparing it to 12z.Overall-- it seems a blend of all guidance shifted S. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The last 6 GEFS runs have shown more precip filling in farther NW out in the Plains and somewhat shifting NW overall...could be a sign of better phasing earlier on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z Euro Control...gets those in S WI in the game... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 KC gets rocked on the 06 gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 KC gets rocked on the 06 gfsI am expecting something like this based on the LRC. Artic air gonna push this much further south this cycle, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, I'm seeing some notable, yet subtle changes at 500mb when looking at the northern stream & southern wave. The last 2 runs are showing better phasing as the system track east across S IL/S IN into the OV. Hense, you can see there has been an uptick in the snow mean overall across IL/IN/S IM into OH. @ Jaster, I find your comment of the "Little Dog/Big Dog" path may be working out quite well. I have seen this in year's past where our area was not the benefactor and more recently this happening in the Nina year of '16/'17 where storms tracked NW of here and we got stuck in rain/snow mix scenario. This time, I'm starting to really feel good about this one over performing around the MW/Lower Lakes region. Trends in the EPS members are showing some massive hits across IL/N IN/S MI/OH. Overall, this system has Big Dog potential on the table and somebody is going to get crushed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Both Euro/GFS starting to see a major winter storm in the works... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW, the 06z ICON may be hinting at a better phase of both N/S streams....similar to what the Euro/EPS are indicating.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Here is BAMWx's thinking for this storm system... 06z GEFS total qpf which also include the Thu wave across MO into C/S IL/IN.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good stuff! Hopefully SE Wisconsin can get in on some of the fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good stuff! Hopefully SE Wisconsin can get in on some of the fun.Looking better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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