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Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

jaster220

By jaster220
in East of the Rockies

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brianc400
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Solid 12-18 mm.

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jcwxguy

Ukmet qpf

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Both Euro/GFS starting to see a major winter storm in the works...

 

Dw8peNDX0AI5EOQ.jpg

 

FWA to KTOL gonna jack! That's my call for where the primary axis lands for eastern sub. Crazy to see 19.9" there as they are NOT known to do well in most historic storms. Would like to see there top-5 list to confirm. Might be some massive hitters from a century ago I'm not familiar with. And that 15/0z Euro Control is "choice" for those further north.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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This storm is coming on shore now correct?

Thursday evening/00z suite friday is probably when we will get sampling. Though I do think he affect of sampling on models is often overplayed, especially nowadays.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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I like the way that dark color is making a B-Line towards SEMI.

 

Agreed. Has to come thru SWMI first tho..

 

15/0z Euro. That has to bliz or near for MO into IL

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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It has been confirmed that because of the government shutdown that most of folks that input the data into the super computer have called in sick and that the modeling will not be reliable going forward :)

 

Europeans are still working so Euro should be fine.

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Stormhunter87 Newbie

Stormhunter87

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Speaking of government shutdown does it affect the snowplowers that have to plow the highways?? I know it doesn’t affect local municipalities as much but curious if it affects state highways

Not much for now, long term it could be an issue. States have to pay for it, but do receive some federal funding for it.
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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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At least the 12z UK qpf improved for Iowa, bringing Cedar Rapids back up to 0.40"  Otherwise, the trend is not good.  As Gosaints posted, the streams are diverging.  I was thinking we need the PV to back off so the main energy could cut more through Iowa instead of diving southeast, but instead, while the models are showing the slowing of the diving PV like I wanted, the main energy is only digging even farther south.  Iowa ends up in no man's land in between, so qpf on the gfs/cmc/icon is drying up.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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At least the 12z UK qpf improved for Iowa, bringing Cedar Rapids back up to 0.40"  Otherwise, the trend is not good.  As Gosaints posted, the streams are diverging.  I was thinking we need the PV to back off so the main energy could cut more through Iowa instead of diving southeast, but instead, while the models are showing the slowing of the diving PV like I wanted, the main energy is only digging even farther south.  Iowa ends up in no man's land in between, so qpf on the gfs/cmc/icon is drying up.

 

Hopefully just another swing of the models until better sampling happens. Gonna be a coaster ride but the peaks and valleys should slowly lessen. We're not even to SR models yet. Signal's been huge from the range we began. Seems phasing's the toughest thing for the models to pin down.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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The trend is not Iowa's friend.  The main energy is digging way too far south for us.  We may have to be satisfied with a 2-4" event.  I hope it doesn't go lower than that.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Well the models are still good, but I dont like how the clipper dumps snow north of us then it re phases just south. eastern Nebraska is just in a weird transition zone. Hoping it can just get its act together a few hours earlier.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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