Clinton Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 GDPS in Kuchera.http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011700/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 UKMET pound town C.IA to E.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is quite rude but after this display, it's probably warranted. Craig has no business running a social media weather page based on his performance on here. Neither do I, but I don't have a social media page for that reason. The "Snow Day" page is detrimental to actively and accurately warning the public of the storm's potential impacts. He can't provide the type of analysis that would be beneficial and compliment the work of the NWS/local media so in all honesty, he should just not have a facebook page at all. Thank you, glad you could give me your opinion lol. Want a cookie? I did say I did not believe the totals would come true, not my fault people want to believe it. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thank you, glad you could give me your opinion lol. Want a cookie? I did say I did not believe the totals would come true, not my fault people want to believe it."Not my fault people want to believe it"the most asinine thing I have heard in while. 12-18" Coming from a "weather" site? ( I use that term lightly) -- what do you expect the non-weather people to think?? I'am done with this subject but I support those whom think it's wrong to post such totals that far in advance. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 "Not my fault people want to believe it"the most asinine thing I have heard in while. 12-18" Coming from a "weather" site? ( I use that term lightly) -- what do you expect the non-weather people to think?? I'am done with this subject but I support those whom think it's wrong to post such totals that far in advance.  Good, glad your done now! Let's talk about the storm shall we? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z UK... obviously, I'd love this 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 another ukmet map -- they don't always mirror each other for some reason. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 another ukmet map -- they don't always mirror each other for some reason.PA_000-072_0000.gifThat seems a lot juicier then the 18z. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 What a difference for most of SD between the UKie and GFS.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 That seems a lot juicier then the 18z.Ukie only runs 00Z and 12Z as far as i know. That was the 18Z Canadian I posted earlier. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Fv3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Fv3Based on what my sister-in-law told us from the last storm I don't think St. Louis could handle another blast like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro seems like 12Z-- pretty weak sauce. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 EuroNot any better then 12z. Great lol. I sure hope NAM will EVENTUALLY be onto something. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Everything is great and then the King shows up lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Although it should still be snowing in some areas yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Des Moines talking potential 20 to 23:1 ratios in N IA. What?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Each nam run getting better. Hmmm hard to believe it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM ? Is it real or is it Memorex? (that dates me)Â 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's always a party when you're with the 06z nam! 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 You'd pretty much have to be partying to be watching at this hour/Â Cheers! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 You'd pretty much have to be partying to be watching at this hour/Â Cheers!Lol can't sleep plus I'm on baby duty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 inches wtf. Either the nam is drunk or since it's on shore it has some good data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam raises the EURO "ALL IN" only holding a pair of deuces --- fun to look at -- can't remember the last time I even looked at something like this no matter what model.. 06Z 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 3k is also going bonkers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 One would normally discount the 06Z nam (and 3KM) other than the fact the 18Z and 00Z show the same pattern. And the idea it has the golden shovel award literally IMBY. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 That is nuts. No wonder I cant sleep! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Â RDPS-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Des Moines mentions 1 to 2 inch per hour rates in latest discussion. LOVE THAT. during the commute too....should be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Rise and Shine! Things are coming together for this system to deliver quite a dumping of snow across the MW. I'm loving the higher rez models all picking up on a fairly wide front band of snow across our region. The devil will be in the details but I like IA scoring Bigly and then weaken some into N IL, but don't discount parts of Chicago squeezing out 6"+ out of this. The reason why I'm believing the higher rez models is they typically do much better ironing out placement and strength of these meso scale bands that are poised to set up with this system. 1-2"+/hr snowfall rates is not out of the question and if you can sit underneath one of those pivoting bands...your golden. LOT's update is as good as it gets over here with a 1-2 punch from system snow and then the real potential for heavy Lake Effect Snow! This LES set is looking amazing. @ IllinoisWx, this one could be one hellova event for us amigo! I've experienced several intense LES events while living here, but this one has me quite intrigued. After a very warm December and nearly ice free lake and relatively warm waters, this is bound to deliver the goods around here for patiently waiting for the prime setup. Not to mention, the Lehs signal is definitely looking great as well.   There is some increasing concern for heavy snow associated withthe band of snow Friday night over northern IL. Given the goodfeed of moisture into the area, with 700 mb mixing ratiosexpected to be around 2.8 g/kg,this should result in some effectsnowfall. This should especially be the case given that thefrontogenetic forcing for ascent looks to produce good ascentright through the favored dendritic growth zone. With all this inmind, along with the fact that we should have fairly high snowratios of 14-16 to 1, we could easily see some areas of northernIL end up with 6+ inches of snow through Saturday morning.Thereafter, the main synoptic snow should begin to focus over mysouthern CWA by Saturday afternoon, where amounts here in the 4"to 6" range appear probable through Saturday evening. Increasingnortheast winds during the day Saturday, may also result in someblowing and drifting snow issues, especially in open areas.The next concern will be the lake effect snow following the mainsystem snow. While some lake enhancement could keep light snowgoing over portions of northeastern IL Saturday afternoon, itappears that the better thermodyamics set up for heavy lakeeffect snow may hold off until sometime late Saturday evening ornight. Strong lake induced instability is likely to setup oversouthern Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday as 850 mbtemps drop to around -18C, essentially setting up ~20Ctemperature differences between the lake temperature. Inversionheights should reach around 6000-6500 feet, which should cut rightthrough the dendritic growth zone, so this should be sufficientto support heavy lake effect snow. While the specifics will taketime to iron out, the synoptic pressure pattern of low pressuremoving up the east coast and a strong surface high building overthe Upper Midwest looks favorable for the potential development ofa single band of heavy lake effect snow. This band looks to startover northeastern IL Saturday night into Sunday morning, beforegradually shifting over northwestern IN during the day Sunday. Themain question that remains is residence time of the band over anygiven area, which will have large implications on the amount ofsnow that falls.A winter storm watch may be needed for parts of northern IL, northof I-80 from Friday night into Saturday, with the watch possiblybeing needed for far northeastern IL through Sunday morning, dueto the continued lake effect threat. We have opted to hold off onany headline at this time though, to let the day shift get anotherlook at this snow event.  First "Heavy Snow" wording of the season in my grid forecast....always gives me goosebumps and never gets old...  FridayA 40 percent chance of snow after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.Friday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.SaturdaySnow. High near 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.Saturday NightSnow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 06 gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Several models starting to spit out .75"+ qpf across NE IL which is a clear signal Lehs is trending better and better. I'm digging this.   06z NAM 3km through the main synoptic/Lehs snowfall...NE IL is going to do good IMHO...IA looks golden with this system. Finally, DSM and those who have been missed by some big systems are gearing up for a major snowstorm. @ Grizz, you getting fired up yet?? I know its Thursday but the trends are really looking positive for DSM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 06z RGEM...juiced as usual and another model indicating the real potential with the placement of the heavier swaths of snow. Still snowing at the end of this run across.  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 While not as juiced as the other higher rez guidance, the 06z Euro agreeing with the general placement of the heavier swaths of snow. Locally, Lehs thru Sat afternoon showing up on the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 RPM Model agreeing with the other CAM models on placement of the heavy swath of snow across portions of E NE/IA and into N IL. I couldn't see where the snow set up in other parts of our sub. Widespread 6"+ across IA and a band of 4-7" in N IL through Sat pm (not including LES Sat pm - Sun). I wouldn't be surprised if a WSW start c 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I will take it. Winds up to 25mph Friday night should make it interesting. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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