Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[jaster220]

SLP runs through far NE Iowa. Much further north than the euro. I think we’ll see the Euro continue to cave to the GFS. GFS has been pretty consistent the last several runs. The Euro has wobbled more than normal.

 

Mentioned clippers were NOT it's strong suit

[gosaints]

But why would the GFS show rain? And if it falls as ice, how much would it be?

 

the has your temps above freezing

[Iowawx]

the has your temps above freezing

Well NWS has forecast high of 22 here on Monday. 10 degrees on Sunday night when this stuff begins.

[Money]

Well NWS has forecast high of 22 here on Monday. 10 degrees on Sunday night when this stuff begins.

Because the models had it farther South

 

Now everything is North

[East Dubzz]

Well NWS has forecast high of 22 here on Monday. 10 degrees on Sunday night when this stuff begins.

Man, it’s not that simple. They’re basing that on the track they’re assuming is going to happen. If the storm is further north than they are currently forecasting, then it will bring more warm air, which means higher temps.

[Niko]

I find clippers to be such exciting events for snow because they can provide some really hvy snows, especially, if GOM moisture gets involved, followed by arctic air.

[East Dubzz]

Nothing throwing in the towel at all, but definitely out of the mix for the heaviest stuff! Just hoping for a few inches here. Would hate to get shut out. Best of luck to our Minnesota posters! Hope this thing rips for you guys, just make sure to save a little

[WBadgersW]

Well looks like i'm tapping out for this one...was so excited a few days ago!

Way too early to tap out.

[East Dubzz]

Way too early to tap out.

Yeah anyone in Wisconsin is still in fine position. Yeah, maybe won’t get the heaviest stuff, but that doesn’t mean the storm is a waste.

[bud2380]

Canadian also north.

[Money]

GEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gdps

[Money]

LE should be really good in eastern WI

[bud2380]

Should see widespread winter storm watches issued tomorrow from probably Fargo to the twin cities to Milwaukee and everywhere in between.

[East Dubzz]

GEM gives me .48” of QPF but 3.2” of snow based on Kuchera.

 

So ratios below 7:1.

[jaster220]

GEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gdps

 

Turning into a 2-3" event. Getting more from these weak disturbances. Whether this "comes back" or not, models are an absolute joke

[jaster220]

Canadian also north.

 

I knew this would be congrats Packer-land, if only cuz my office went gung-ho waaayyy prematurely

[james1976]

No way Euro stays south

[St Paul Storm]

GEM

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gdps

Watches by tomorrow afternoon if things don’t change much on the models?

[gosaints]

Watches by tomorrow afternoon if things don’t change much on the models?

it will be overnight for you for sure maybe down here too

[East Dubzz]

No way Euro stays south

I’m sure it comes north a little. Will be interesting to see if it comes much further or stays the souther outlier.

 

But at the same time, I think it could stay south because how often do we have that good of model agreement?

 

But I expect the American models to win this one. Open the government and “win” the storm track? What a week for the good ol’ Murica.

[Money]

Should be interesting how Ukie looks in 10 mins. Its been the most southern model so far

[East Dubzz]

Watches by tomorrow afternoon if things don’t change much on the models?

Should be in the morning for a good chunk of people.

[East Dubzz]

Should be interesting how Ukie looks in 10 mins. Its been the most southern model so far

My guess is track right around my area, but slightly weaker SLP than the models so far tonight.

[Money]

Watches by tomorrow afternoon if things don’t change much on the models?

I would say by the 3 AM update for you and gosaints

 

Probably 3 PM here

[Money]

Gfs FV3 pretty similar to gfs

 

A touch slower but similar strength and location

[bud2380]

Ukie caved. Looks similar to GFS with SLP. I’d be shocked if the Euro didn’t make a similar jump north.

[jaster220]

Gfs FV3 pretty similar to gfs

 

A touch slower but similar strength and location

 

[jaster220]

Ukie caved. Looks similar to GFS with SLP. I’d be shocked if the Euro didn’t make a similar jump north.

 

Euro will fold like a cheap tent

[East Dubzz]

Ukie caved. Looks similar to GFS with SLP. I’d be shocked if the Euro didn’t make a similar jump north.

Spoiler alert! How’d you get that so fast?

[Money]

Ukie takes the low along the WI/IL boarder. Pretty good consensus so far

[East Dubzz]

Euro will fold like a cheap tent

Yup. If the Ukie held, I’d say maybe not. But those two are usually pretty hooked together.

[jaster220]

FV3 surf map is so mis-leading. Makes it look like the thing wants to come right at me and pound..then there's next frame, lol

[jaster220]

wow. down to like ~6 hrs of flakes flying. Yesterday we were at 20+ hrs and trending upwards..clippers are horrible to pin down. Why I said "madness", which I admit to allowing myself to get sucked into.

[Money]

Gfs FV3 with 18-20 inches in Sheboygan

 

Clear LE signal shown

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012600&fh=96&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Niko]

wow. down to like ~6 hrs of flakes flying. Yesterday we were at 20+ hrs and trending upwards..clippers are horrible to pin down. Why I said "madness", which I admit to allowing myself to get sucked into.

Its all part of the fun amigo!

[Niko]

NMI gets walloped w 12"+...wow. I have a friend there that has nearly 3ft on the ground currently.

[East Dubzz]

Euro up and running.

 

My guess: at HR 60, a 998mb low over DBQ.

[East Dubzz]

I could be wrong.. maybe the Euro doesn’t want to budge?

[Money]

Euro def stays South

 

Hr 72 its in S MI

[East Dubzz]

Euro def stays South

 

Hr 72 its in S MI

There had to be some model that stayed south, right?

 

That said, as much as it pains me to say, this is the kind of system I’d actually rather not be on the side of the Euro.