Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[East Dubzz]

Surprised how far north this is moving.

I’ll have to see more than the NAM showing this before saying it’s really moving that far north. NAM is by far the most north at this point. We shall see.

[james1976]

The H in Canada will have its say

[Snowshoe]

NAM drops the dreaded bullseye on central Wisconsin. I'm screwed! 

 

I might have to chase...

 

[Money]

6z euro jumped way North with a track through the IL/WI boarder

[East Dubzz]

I don’t like the ICON, but I suppose it’s worth mentioning that it went slightly further north from its 06z run. Not a ton, but worth noting with the other models showing signs of northern shifts. Still a good hit for N Illinois, though.

[bud2380]

We're still 60 hours out from precip hitting the Iowa/MN border so this track will obviously wobble, but I think I'll be lucky to stay in a 6" band as we move forward.  The trend is north.  If the UK and Euro start heading that way then I'm in trouble.  

[East Dubzz]

We're still 60 hours out from precip hitting the Iowa/MN border so this track will obviously wobble, but I think I'll be lucky to stay in a 6" band as we move forward. The trend is north. If the UK and Euro start heading that way then I'm in trouble.

If it keeps trending that way, it could get iffy. That said, there have been plenty of times where it goes north now, and then starts to trend south again later (and vice versa). Point being, as long as it doesn’t trend super far north, anything is still possible at this point.

[BMT]

Lots of time for it to come back south

[bud2380]

Very little change on the GFS thru 54 hours compared to the 6z GFS.  

[St Paul Storm]

GFS a few ticks stronger compared to the last few runs for sure.

[Money]

Crush job here

[bud2380]

GFS a tick north, but pretty similar to 6z.  Brings at least a 1/4" of rain to my area.  Wow that would suck.  

[gosaints]

Crush job here

you are golden me thinks

[East Dubzz]

Not a huge shift north, but the 12z GFS is slightly further north from the 06z run. Slightly strong SLP.

[shakjen]

WPC not going with a north track

 

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://overtimeheroics.com/showthread.php?t=946

[badgerwx]

Oh mannn....SW WI is screwed was so looking forward to a foot of snow 

[East Dubzz]

Still a solid run in my neck of the woods, with Kuchera showing 7.1”. That said, can’t have it continue to trend any further north.

[East Dubzz]

Oh mannn....SW WI is screwed was so looking forward to a foot of snow

This run is fine for SW Wisconsin.

[hlcater]

Great

[East Dubzz]

This run has a 994mb low at HR 66, where the previous runs had 997mb and 999mb.

[St Paul Storm]

Gfs

 

http://overtimeheroics.com/showthread.php?t=946

FYI wrong link

[East Dubzz]

GEM also nudged a little north, but not as much as the GFS & NAM. Brings the low through east central Iowa.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS

[East Dubzz]

12z GFS actually gave me more QPF than the 06z, but the thermals are not as good, so I’m not sure if the lower snow amount is from some rain being mixed in, lower ratios, or a mix. Either way, I’d still take a solid 3-6” event. Just no rain, please.

[hlcater]

This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity.

[East Dubzz]

I think a lot of people here would be content with the CMC. Shares the wealth a lot.

[indianajohn]

Just like the last one NWI goes from getting crushed at 17+"  to pretty much nothing.......like they say always sucks being the bulls eye early on. LOL

 

12z GFS

[james1976]

This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity.

Iowa is the L magnet

[Jaycee]

Yeah this is gunna be a yikes from me dawg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So I disagree with the northerly solutions. I just don't see this thing going this far north with the cold air in place right now. It's showing rain in less than 48 hours, and it's literally -1 outside. There's just no way. But I also have no scientifical explanation for it, I'm just going with my gut. Hope I'm right, but otherwise, looks like I'm taking a roadie up to my cousins place in Madison! 

 

[hlcater]

How does the ukie look?

[bud2380]

Every model has shifted north on the 12z run from the 00z runs last night so far.  In some cases fairly significantly north.  Ukie and Euro have been further south on almost every run, let's see if they budge.  

[Money]

Ukie went North

[bud2380]

UKIE has the low in SE Iowa vs. NE Iowa and SW WI on the GFS at hour 72.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[bud2380]

Ukie went North

This is the 00z Ukie, Looks pretty similar on 12z.

 

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/iowa/sea-level-pressure/20190128-1800z.html

[bud2380]

Precip shield on Ukie does look north though regardless of SLP track.  Hard to tell for sure yet, but definitely seems to have come north from 00z with the precip.

[CentralNebWeather]

I guess I am glad I am not spending my weekend tracking a storm again.  We will watch from a distance and hope for our storminess to return later.  Good luck.

[Tony]

Just a reminder that on our last storm the GFS and NAM out to 48 hrs from the start of the storm were way north and we all know what happened with this so I still see changes happening whether it be good or not.

[Tony]

Ukie and NAVGEM are south. What could possibly go wrong.

[gosaints]

Just a reminder that on our last storm the GFS and NAM out to 48 hrs from the start of the storm were way north and we all know what happened with this so I still see changes happening whether it be good or not.

Certainly every storm is different