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Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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shakjen
shakjen

I will take this one.  

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat
Tom
Tom

Can't deny it, South trend is for real...12z GEFS coming in juiced and South...Chicago and the rest of the CWA may be reeling one in after all....

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Nice to see the models keeping this system a fairly widespread snow producer and not weakening as it heads S/SE...it just makes sense to me to have such a strong system which will ultimately pull down the vortex over the GL's.  This season, we have seen a few well-timed events/systems and I think this one will be one of those memorable moments of our winter season, esp those who score from this system and then the wicked cold to follow.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Nice uptick on the GFS. 12z GEM Kuchera gave me 19" by next Wed morning. Not a fan of inflation via Kuchera maps as cold temps usually proves to yield pixie dust flakes, but it'd be fun to get slammed whatever the amount ends up being. Is there any wind component coming with this? SLP isn't crazy strong.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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00z GGEM is strong and juiced...nice hit for many peeps on here...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Thinking GEM's a bit over-done and will calm down as we get inside 48 hrs. Would be quite the coup if it led the way with this one. It's been pretty steady, hafta give it that

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Here in C.IA closer to where the low is lorecasted to be thermals are going to be huge. I have a feeling the CMC and GFS are too warm aloft. The Euro is not even close to those temps, but is now 12 hours old.  It looks like a good hit NE of here.... when I did i hear that again? In seriousness. this should do much better NE than the previous system.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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It appears the UKIE is S of the GFS at Hr 72-- much further S at HR 96 in Indiana rather than SW MI and quite a bit weaker, which is typical.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Euro appears quite a bit further S at HR 72. Faster? (than GFS and slightly even its own 12Z run) -- Arctic High North of Superior appears to have more influence than GFS--- still a good solid hit for many and quite similar to other guidance.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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Euro appears quite a bit further S at HR 72. Faster? (than GFS and slightly even its own 12Z run) -- Arctic High North of Superior appears to have more influence than GFS--- still a good solid hit for many and quite similar to other guidance.

 

Ended up coming in north and slightly wetter. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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Just about every model hits Iowa city and CR hard but the heaviest is to the north and east. Definitely riding the southern edge here. I’d like to see Kuchera on the Euro. CR is right on The .6” qpf line. At 15:1 that’s 9”.

 

I'd wager it looks a lot like the Canadian.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z EPS coming in juiced and quite a large area with substantial snowfall.  This is trending to be one of the more potent hybrid clippers I've tracked in recent memory.

 

FWIW, 06z GEFS look very similar to the EPS qpf mean....

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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This will be a very cold snowstorm w very high snow ratios, so accumulations will be very impressive. It is now starting to grab my attn.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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The NAM and GFS are much further north on the southern edge than the Euro, Canadian, and UK.  Pretty big spread still in model solutions.  12z NAM is clipping only the far NE corner of Iowa with appreciable snow, while the UK and Euro have heavy snow well south of I80.  That's a good 150-200 mile difference.  

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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The NAM and GFS are much further north on the southern edge than the Euro, Canadian, and UK. Pretty big spread still in model solutions. 12z NAM is clipping only the far NE corner of Iowa with appreciable snow, while the UK and Euro have heavy snow well south of I80. That's a good 150-200 mile difference.

The models were bound to break apart at some point. They had been fairly consistent with each other for a while there, and we all know that’s not allowed to happen.

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