Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[East Dubzz]

Definitely faster, but I’m doubting it’ll have a different track.

[East Dubzz]

It’s further south slightly and WAY faster. SLP is in NE Iowa at HR 57. It was still back in western Minnesota at that time on the last run.

[East Dubzz]

Weird run.

[bud2380]

NAM stays north.

[East Dubzz]

NAM stays north.

But also a decent shift south.

[St Paul Storm]

That high in Ontario is way north and out of the way. Allows the low to pivot east. Nice run.

[East Dubzz]

This run was much better for the DBQ area compared to the last one.

[Money]

That high in Ontario is way north and out of the way. Allows the low to pivot east. Nice run.

You and me get crushed this run

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=nam

 

Feel pretty confident of 6+ rn

[Money]

You linked the 18z, by the way.

Thats 0z

[St Paul Storm]

You and me get crushed this run http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=nam

Feel pretty confident of 6+ rn

I’m still loving the buffer zone to the north and south. Margin for error is greater than normal. It would take a huge jump to really cause chaos.

[East Dubzz]

Thats 0z

Yeah I was confused but I figured out why I was getting messed up. The snowfall map I saw was different, but that’s because the NAM has my area getting that snowfall tomorrow.

[East Dubzz]

NAM has less snow on the southern side of the SLP, which is hurting my area. But still, the track is better than the last 2 runs.

[Money]

Icon shifted NE from 18z run

 

Looks like the nam

[Stormy]

Right now it appears that I’m mostly out of the game unless models act like they did with the last storm. Lol

[james1976]

My God am I tired of being on the edge of every single storm

[Madtown]

maps?

[East Dubzz]

maps?

Of what?

[Bellona]

My God am I tired of being on the edge of every single storm

We are in a bad spot this winter. Literally every storm has been a county or so away while my biggest single snowfall stands at 3.5 for the winter.

[East Dubzz]

Here’s the ICON QPF..

[james1976]

We are in a bad spot this winter. Literally every storm has been a county or so away while my biggest single snowfall stands at 3.5 for the winter.

Yup mine too. The last one I managed 3.4"

[East Dubzz]

Think the GFS is gonna be further north. Definitely don’t foresee it being any further south.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like GFS down to 994mb in C Saskatchewan at hr 36. Getting strong.

[Money]

Gfs coming North this run. Def stronger and farther East so far

[East Dubzz]

GFS at 993mb at HR 42. Was 996mb at the same time on the last run.

[Madtown]

no bueno trends are trends

[Money]

994 in southern MN at 54

[St Paul Storm]

Way north. SW MN now with thermal issues it’s cutting so much.

[bud2380]

SLP runs through far NE Iowa. Much further north than the euro. I think we’ll see the Euro continue to cave to the GFS. GFS has been pretty consistent the last several runs. The Euro has wobbled more than normal.

[Money]

HR 60 its right around Madison. Looks faster

[Iowawx]

I’m no weather expert but how could we possibly have rain here when temp on Monday is forecast to be 22 degrees? That should be plenty cold for snow.

[badgerwx]

Well looks like i'm tapping out for this one...was so excited a few days ago!

[East Dubzz]

I’m no weather expert but how could we possibly have rain here when temp on Monday is forecast to be 22 degrees? That should be plenty cold for snow.

Well, storm is further north than expected, pulling up more warm air.

 

That said, the DVN seemed to indicate it would be ice. They haven’t mentioned rain at all.

[Money]

GEM has a 997 L right over DBQ at hr 60

[james1976]

I’m no weather expert but how could we possibly have rain here when temp on Monday is forecast to be 22 degrees? That should be plenty cold for snow.

That wont be the forecast by tomorrow

[Money]

GEM is also huge on qpf it looks like

 

22 MM over MKE at hr 60 which is 0.9 qpf and the low is still over dbq at that time

[East Dubzz]

Well looks like i'm tapping out for this one...was so excited a few days ago!

Aren’t you in SW Wisconsin?

[Iowawx]

Well, storm is further north than expected, pulling up more warm air.

 

That said, the DVN seemed to indicate it would be ice. They haven’t mentioned rain at all.

But why would the GFS show rain? And if it falls as ice, how much would it be?

[East Dubzz]

But why would the GFS show rain? And if it falls as ice, how much would it be?

Not sure on either. I’m just repeating what the DVN said. They said surface temps should stay below freezing. & Depends on track and strength.

[Money]

GFS

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012600&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[hlcater]

I think DVN is out to lunch with this freezing rain/mixed precip talk. All the warm air is near the surface. No forecast sounds show an inversion formidable enough to cause mixed precipitation. The most likely options are a wet snow in areas where the above freezing layer is shallow, or just plain rain in areas where it is deeper.