Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[gosaints]

The new GFS says what storm???

[St Paul Storm]

Epic fail.

[gosaints]

Epic fail.

Hopefully the model just sucks

[St Paul Storm]

Hopefully the model just sucks

Yes and no. That’s our new shiny upgrade. One of the best in the world.....

[gosaints]

Yes and no. That’s our new shiny upgrade. One of the best in the world.....

true that...  

[East Dubzz]

Hopefully the model just sucks

It was acting weird with this storm last night too, but the other models have continued to show this storm. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I think it’s just performing terrible. Maybe the govt shutdown is getting to it lol

[East Dubzz]

Unless I’m looking at it incorrectly, the Ukie seems to have a similar SLP location as the GEM at HR 96. Don’t know any details besides that.

[bud2380]

Be right for once in your life GGEM.

 

 

[gosaints]

The iconic icon

 

[St Paul Storm]

I’d love to see the performance scores of the FV3 vs ICON. Total trash.

[St Paul Storm]

FV3 says enjoy your 1-4” of snow everyone. Buzzkill.

[East Dubzz]

FV3 says enjoy your 1-4” of snow everyone. Buzzkill.

Not really sure I’d say it’s a buzzkill, as it’s pretty difficult to take serious.

[St Paul Storm]

Not really sure I’d say it’s a buzzkill, as it’s pretty difficult to take serious.

Yeah, sarcasm didn’t come thru there. Ha.

[gimmesnow]

It was acting weird with this storm last night too, but the other models have continued to show this storm. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I think it’s just performing terrible. Maybe the govt shutdown is getting to it lol

 

I thought GFSes blew the last storm pretty good too. Just my 2 cents. Seems like it likes to come in warm and weak with this pattern we're in. Just because it's new doesn't mean it's better. I would even argue it could even be worse for a time as they work with the new software and make adjustments.

[bud2380]

Ukie

 

[gosaints]

So much potential with this thing considering the gradient established by the westerly WAA.  

 

[james1976]

Be right for once in your life GGEM.

 

 

Agreed. That is INSANE

[GDR]

That was a YUGE slide south on the gfs from the 06z and still along ways to go!

[East Dubzz]

Euro with a 1002mb SLP in NW Missouri at HR 96. Pretty similar to the CMC as far as track. SLP is slightly weaker (2mb).

 

Very similar to the UK, at least as far as track and strength at HR 96. As usual, no idea on any other details.

[bud2380]

[james1976]

A wide 6+ assuming ratios are 15:1

[Hawkeye]

The euro has dropped the system from super clipper to more of an ordinary high end clipper.  Except for the weak FV3, the models are darn close this morning.  I'll certainly take 5-8 inches of clipper fluff.

[Tony]

Fluctuations on qpf this far out to be expected and will continue. This weekend will be interesting to see what they show compared to what the models that were on the high end. Will the GFS/Gem continue to be on the high end and will the Euro stay the middle ground. At least the consensus is for a decent storm.  

[Stormgeek]

Meh. If it happens it happens, if not I move on. It’ll snow, just a matter of how much.

Can't agree more. Been so meh all winter that it is turning into a "whatever happens, happens" kind of winter.

[Tom]

12z EPS a touch S but still a good hit for a lot of places from IA/IL/IN/MI.

[Money]

Not that it means anything but nam jumped a good bit north from its 12z run

[East Dubzz]

Not that it means anything but nam jumped a good bit north from its 12z run

NAM at HR 81 zzzzzz

[Money]

NAM at HR 81 zzzzzz

Just copying you lol

[East Dubzz]

Just copying you lol

And I’m just busting your balls haha! But I do think it’s worth noting. You actually beat me to posting it. Just because it’s long term NAM and not reliable, doesn’t mean it’s not worth mentioning at least. It’s just interesting to compare to what other models see and have, even if it’s not worth a darn. I think I’d trust the long term NAM over the FV3 right now, honestly

[St Paul Storm]

I accidentally clicked on the NAVGEM in TT. Solid hit here on the 06z run. Boom.

[Tony]

Not that it means anything but nam jumped a good bit north from its 12z run

Actually looks pretty good and not far off the 12z GFS

[St Paul Storm]

^ was just going to post that. Good call.

[Tony]

I accidentally clicked on the NAVGEM in TT. Solid hit here on the 06z run. Boom.

Just looked at it for kicks...that looks like it would bury most of the sub-forum

[East Dubzz]

So what you guys are saying is we need to lock it in?

[GDR]

Icon looks north

[Tony]

Icon looks north

Comparing it to 18z Nam, Icon looks a little faster but other than that looks about the same. It is farther north of it's 12z run

[East Dubzz]

Icon looks north

I think I trust the long range NAM more than I trust the ICON, but I would say the track is pretty similar to what the GFS is showing

[Money]

Gfs will be farther east also

[St Paul Storm]

Based on hr 66 I’ll say the GFS bumps a tad east

[East Dubzz]

Still only out to HR 72, but if I had to guess.. GFS will come in at least slightly further north.