Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[GDR]

Looks north also a tad

[East Dubzz]

Basically goes back to it’s 06z solution.

[Money]

996 L in NE IA at hr 90

 

3 mb stronger than 18z

[St Paul Storm]

So all 18z model runs so far have bumped north/east.

[East Dubzz]

3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north.

[GDR]

Rain in central ia

[St Paul Storm]

3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north.

And the high to the east is further east. Combo.

[East Dubzz]

Still pretty juiced up, but not quite as much as the 12z run.

[East Dubzz]

Not it matters too much this far out, but I think that run would have given me mostly (if not all) snow. Only issue I’d foresee in that scenario is a dry slot from the SLP heading right over my area. Would be better than rain, at least.

 

Like I said before, the storm itself is still a good amount away. However, we’re probably going to get a good idea of the track this storm will take when it’s in Canada, which is obviously closer in the timeframe.

[Iowawx]

Come on, just keep going south. GFS has gone from north to south to north. Other models seem more consient at least. 

 

Whatever happens, I just don't want rain from this.

[Money]

8-12 from Minnesota almost all of southern WI etc

[bud2380]

3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north.

I always thought they said with clippers a stronger SLP would drive the low further SW.  But maybe I made that up.  

[East Dubzz]

I always thought they said with clippers a stronger SLP would drive the low further SW. But maybe I made that up.

I guess I could see that, because the system may dig more. I could be making that up too. I was just thinking that the storm being stronger allows it to cut across the snowpack with more ease.

[gosaints]

I guess I could see that, because the system may dig more. I could be making that up too. I was just thinking that the storm being stronger allows it to cut across the snowpack with more ease.

gonna depend on where the baro zone sets up.and the strength on the surface will effect that

[hlcater]

The GFS has not had the hot hand lately. Wouldn’t discard it, but I also wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

[East Dubzz]

The GFS has not had the hot hand lately. Wouldn’t discard it, but I also wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

Probably shouldn’t lose sleep over it anyway

 

Well, I take that back. I do lose sleep when I’m tracking storms. So I guess I’m going to lose sleep either way.

[St Paul Storm]

You guys are stressing 96 hours out. Crack a beer and relax amigos.

[East Dubzz]

You guys are stressing 96 hours out. Crack a beer and relax amigos.

I’m plenty relaxed my friend! I’ve finally got some good snow, so missing on this storm wouldn’t bother me even close to as much as it would have just a little over a week ago. Just glad to actually have an interesting pattern to watch!

 

I have a rec league basketball game tonight, though, so I may have to wait a few hours before cracking open a cold one

[BMT]

Dvn throwing out a foot of snow wording. Sign me up.

[dubuque473]

Schnack mentioned snow likely...several inches..

[jaster220]

Dvn throwing out a foot of snow wording. Sign me up.

 

GRR pm disco saying recent guidance has it missing SWMI. What planet are they on?

 

CPC today buys into a storm. Interesting they have Chicago shut-out of the good swath. I'm sure this will look different with Friday's release..

 

[shakjen]

Here is the DVN text

 

Sunday night and Monday: Next in the hit parade is a significant

snowstorm with the potential for accumulations of 6+ inches and

strong winds. There is the potential for a foot of snow but too soon

to tell the axis of the heaviest snow band. Models indicate a 50

knot LLJ impinging on a very tight thermal gradient, suggesting very

strong upward motion. The latest run of the GFS/ECMWF has come in

farther south with the track of the surface low, with the ECMWF

taking the low across far northern MO. This puts much of the cwa

squarely in a significant snowstorm. Temperatures will moderate with

highs in the teens north and 20s south.

[Money]

The Sat/Sun wave is faster on the Nam this run. Allows the next one more room to go east

[gosaints]

 

The Sat/Sun wave is faster on the Nam this run. Allows the next one more room to go east[/quote?

 

NAMING/NAMLY.

 

In all honesty when we get in range the NAM should perform decently with this setup

[Money]

GB AFD mentioning 18-24 hours of LE could happen along the western shoreline in WI

[gosaints]

GB AFD mentioning 18-24 hours of LE could happen along the western shoreline in WI

burying potential

[Money]

A lot of people on here would like the icon

[East Dubzz]

A lot of people on here would like the icon

Lock it in?

[St Paul Storm]

Loving that pivot action on the NAM.

[Money]

NAM and ICON both showing some really nice ratios

 

NAM has 5 inches of snow on 0.2 qpf here with temps in the single digits

[gosaints]

Icon is not warm either

[St Paul Storm]

I think it was yesterday that MPX referenced a CIPS analog from a very similar storm in December 2000 when the TC got 7.5” of snow on 0.25” of qpf. Given the cold air in place this storm could do the same, somewhere.

[jaster220]

Loving that pivot action on the NAM.

 

I 2nd that

 

[Money]

Gfs will probably be a good bit south this run

[East Dubzz]

Gfs will probably be a good bit south this run

Slightly further south this run, but doesn’t appear to be too much thus far.

[Grizzcoat]

A little S and W in IA-- a little. 

[St Paul Storm]

Still a pretty nice run.

[Iowawx]

Looks good for CR on this run.

[Money]

Gem looks like the gfs track wise as well

 

Seems like all four models so far in decent agreement

[Tom]

00z GFS...