February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How are things looking for PDX snow-wise on Monday with these new updates?

Still looking good. The 18z EURO came back around from it's earlier subpar 12z run and delivered the goods. As long as we have King EURO on our side we are in good hands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Watches upgraded to warnings for Central Douglas County and Eastern Douglas County Foothills. Winter Weather Advisory below 1500' for up to 2" in Central Douglas County (Roseburg). 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday at 10 a.m... now King County is a big winner.

 

 

 

Amazing... 12Z ECMWF shows HIGH temps solidly below freezing for King County on Monday.   Wow!  

 

 

 

High temps below freezing on Tuesday for the Seattle area with full sunshine.

 

 

 

Wow... King County went from the screw zone to absolute perfection on this run.   

 

 

ECMWF shows Seattle just barely getting above freezing on Wednesday with 33.

 

This could be a solid week of snow cover for King County.

 

 

 

Here are some of my very "selective" posts I made this morning.   

[FrozenBites]

Euro will be more telling. Excited to see what the king spits.

[dairyd]

This is going to blow up. I love it.

 

look at the low circulating over the south sound. is that supposed to be there?

 

https://col.st/O7skC

[The Swamp]

Very decent.  This is just the beginning too!

 

Who cares about later in the week when the "load" hasn't even happened yet?

 

Man.

 

>

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Block starts re-organizing around day 10, allows for at least a brief warm up and snow levels rising towards the passes.

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FWIW, 00z WRF fills Western WA a little more by 4PM Monday. Certainly some of the best amounts it's spit out over a large area.

 

[snow_wizard]

Clearly a convergence signature showing up on the WRF for tomorrow.  Having Arctic air on the north wind side of that could make things very interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is a bit better up north.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, 00z WRF fills Western WA a little more by 4PM Monday. Certainly some of the best amounts it's spit out over a large area.

 

 

 

 

WRF is actually very close to showing snow all day around Seattle on Monday.  

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, 00z WRF fills Western WA a little more by 4PM Monday. Certainly some of the best amounts it's spit out over a large area.

 

 

I've seen us do well when the WRF shows almost nothing a day ahead of time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z UKMET looks excellent days 5 and 6!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Backdoor blast on the GFS mid-month...

[GHweatherChris]

Here are some of my very "selective" posts I made this morning.

A post like this is one of the many reasons some of us give you shitt, it is an internet forum, what are you really trying to prove here?

 

Why get defensive...?

[snow_wizard]

Block starts re-organizing around day 10, allows for at least a brief warm up and snow levels rising towards the passes.

 

 

The Februaries I consider analogs had brief warm ups in between the cold shots.  Very 1990 ish.

[GHweatherChris]

I've seen us do well when the WRF shows almost nothing a day ahead of time.

WRF has been useless for a long time for snowfall....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF is showing 1-2" of snow up here 4a-10a tomorrow morning. Would be interesting, then no more snow until later in the evening. 

 

Then about 3-4" overnight Sunday night.

[HighlandExperience]

WRF is actually very close to showing snow all day around Seattle on Monday.  

 

That would be very special. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems verified, mesoscales work best when they have good data in their boundary conditions (as the storm approaches):

 

Screenshot_2019-02-02 SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis.png

slp.03.0000.gif

 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure tonight's WRF will verify in terms of cold air timing. Earlier runs expected low level cold air to rapidly spill down the coast prior to the arrival of the outflow.

[TT-SEA]

A post like this is one of the many reasons some of us give you shitt, it is an internet forum, what are you really trying to prove here?

 

 

The implication was that I am on here picking the worst maps to post.    That is wrong.  

[bainbridgekid]

The UKIE keeps the deformation band going into Monday afternoon around Seattle.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Euro will be more telling. Excited to see what the king spits.

I can't wait either. I literally have goosebumps right now.

[snow_wizard]

Nice blast on this GFS run.  Looking really fun!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The UKIE keeps the deformation band going into Monday afternoon around Seattle.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

Do you mean PDX?

[TT-SEA]

FV-3 is a bit better up north.

 

 

FV3 shows some snow in Seattle tomorrow evening and then its dry.    Highly doubt that happens.

[bainbridgekid]

Do you mean PDX?

Plenty of precip down there as well.

 

EDIT: UKIE actually rotates the band back North Monday night as well. This is 10 PM Monday to 4 AM Tuesday.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice blast on this GFS run.  Looking really fun!

We're going to have lots of fun looking at the models over the next month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

850mb temps are around 0C right now. Will crash to -5C or so in the next 6-8 hours. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like that GOA vortex is winding up as we get toward the end of the month.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Tomorrow night is gonna be fun, I hope noone overreacts....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Plenty of precip down there as well.

 

EDIT: UKIE actually rotates the band back North Monday night as well.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

Oh I see, yeah.

[Esquimalt]

Plenty of precip down there as well.

 

EDIT: UKIE actually rotates the band back North Monday night as well. This is 10 PM Monday to 4 AM Tuesday.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

How does the UKIE look for the south island?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like that GOA vortex is winding up as we get toward the end of the month.

 

 

 

Excellent post!    Thanks for letting us know.   

 

If I made this post there would be 25 pages of people yelling at me immediately following.   

[Guest hawkstwelve]

With tomorrow and tomorrow night being heavily reliant on watching radar, surface obs, etc., I thought I would throw together a post with some helpful links and pointers for some of the new members we have this year. These are really fun (and helpful) to watch as we move into and during an event.

 

Fraser outflow: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

• Recent time is on the left; subtract one from the other to get mb reading
• Can use this website for any gradients; might be especially helpful for those watching the Gorge

Mesoscale analysis: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=11

• Under ‘Basic UA’, you can get current 850mb and 950mb temps every hour which are a great indicator for snow levels and cold air penetration

NWS weather data viewer: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=sew&obs=true

• Great for getting specific data and current obs from individual sites
• Good alternative is the Wundermap: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

NexLAB Radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

• One of my favorite radars

UW Loops: https://atmos.uw.edu/~ovens/loops/

• Nice for viewing different loops like WV, IR, visible, etc.

 

I have some others but that’s a good place to start. Hope these help!

[bainbridgekid]

How does the UKIE look for the south island?

I'm working with a low resolution map, but it looks like quite a bit of moisture between about Noon and 4 AM Monday which should be snow for just about all of Vancouver Island.

[TT-SEA]

With tomorrow and tomorrow night being heavily reliant on watching radar, surface obs, etc., I thought I would throw together a post with some helpful links and pointers for some of the new members we have this year. These are really fun (and helpful) to watch as we move into and during an event.

 

Fraser outflow: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

• Recent time is on the left; subtract one from the other to get mb reading
• Can use this website for any gradients; might be especially helpful for those watching the Gorge

Mesoscale analysis: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=11

• Under ‘Basic UA’, you can get current 850mb and 950mb temps every hour which are a great indicator for snow levels and cold air penetration

NWS weather data viewer: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=sew&obs=true

• Great for getting specific data and current obs from individual sites
• Good alternative is the Wundermap: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

NexLAB Radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

• One of my favorite radars

UW Loops: https://atmos.uw.edu/~ovens/loops/

• Nice for viewing different loops like WV, IR, visible, etc.

 

I have some others but that’s a good place to start. Hope these help!

 

 

I was just going to ask for the link to the map that shows current 850mb and 925mb temps.   Thanks!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The northern olympic peninsula is going to get hit hard. I wouldn't be surprised to see places get 8-12 inches or more.

[GHweatherChris]

Excellent post! Thanks for letting us know.

 

If I made this post there would be 25 pages of people yelling at me immediately following.

#drama

[TT-SEA]

In one hour we will have ECMWF maps for the first round.    Big run tonight!

 

I will guess it looks very similar to its 12Z run... but that is just a guess.