2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[jcwxguy]

00z Euro, wave 1

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is the only model that hasn't had any dramatic run-to-run jumps. That might say something.

[jcwxguy]

Appears slightly slower for Sunday wave and weaker for Iowa

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2 euro

[East Dubzz]

Euro is the only model that hasn't had any dramatic run-to-run jumps. That might say something.

It also may not.

 

Sorry, had to

[jcwxguy]

Both waves euro

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, definitely a drying for east-central/southeast Iowa as the focus has shifted to nw Iowa.  However, this thing is still 3+ days away.  The first wave hasn't even moved onshore yet.  I'm sure the qpf hot spots will jump around.  The UK has the hot spot over here and drier out west, so it's still up in the air.

[jcwxguy]

There is a 3rd wave on Euro for Wednesday going from Kansas to Central and eastern Nebraska

[bud2380]

Euro really dried things out in eastern Iowa. As did the GFS. But wouldn’t surprise me to see it trend back the other way in a couple days.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Nam- first wave.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM- 2nd wave (still snowing at HR 84 for many)

[Grizzcoat]

06 NAM 3KM - first wave.

[Grizzcoat]

WWA just issued for areas Nw -W- SW and S of Omaha for first wave.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS First wave-

[Grizzcoat]

2nd wave on 06Z GFS is jacked  ( per the usual) and more N and E--

[Grizzcoat]

2nd wave 48 HR QPF-

[Grizzcoat]

total for both waves---

[Grizzcoat]

I think S.MN does (MSP etc and SW WI)) really good with this 2nd wave- better than what current guidance is showing and has showed. S.IA not so well .

[Grizzcoat]

3rd wave is also there on regular GFS----

[Clinton]

3rd wave is also there on regular GFS----

That one has the potential to be a biggie.

[Tom]

Wonder if we should start a separate thread for the 20th-21st system just so it compartmentalizes things???  All these waves in one thread can get a little bunched up.  Let's just keep the 1st and 2nd wave in this thread.

[Clinton]

Wonder if we should start a separate thread for the 20th-21st system just so it compartmentalizes things???  All these waves in one thread can get a little bunched up.  Let's just keep the 1st and 2nd wave in this thread.

Yes and the 3rd wave has been a producer in the southern and central plains in previous cycles.

[Tom]

06z Euro...1st wave...

 

 

[Tom]

The 06z Euro is really drying up the 2nd wave which is concerning around here, however, the GEFS still look pretty good overall.  The 00z EPS is not as robust with precip as it heads east.

[Niko]

Hopefully, both waves give me a couple to even several inches of snow. Got to continue adding in the snow dept. Slowly creeping up to near average after a very slow start.

[Minny_Weather]

If we end both waves with anything less than 6" I'll be disappointed imo. With the fact that the sun is getting higher, any near freezing temps with the sun out has the potential to obliterate a 4" snowpack in a day or two.

[Tom]

WPC's snowfall probability through Sunday morning...

 

 

[Niko]

This zonal flow isn't helping this system for my area. We will see. Hopefully, better trends as we go along into this weekend.

[erburns18]

Looking like another 2 incher for Omaha

[FarmerRick]

If we end both waves with anything less than 6" I'll be disappointed imo. With the fact that the sun is getting higher, any near freezing temps with the sun out has the potential to obliterate a 4" snowpack in a day or two.

 

 

Prepare to be disappointed. It's just how things go around here it seems.

[NH4NU]

[Minny_Weather]

NAM still with the MONSTER cutoff. I'm on my phone so I can't send pics but it still has the Lincoln cashes in/Omaha gets f'ed scenario.

[Clinton]

12z NAM 1st wave

[Clinton]

3km

[East Dubzz]

DVN thinking a 2-4” event around these parts for the 2nd wave. Makes sense.

[Clinton]

NAM 2nd wave

Both waves

[Clinton]

HRRR north cutoff is brutal.

[erburns18]

HRRR north cutoff is brutal.

 

Man the look of that

[Grizzcoat]

2nd wave jacked.... GFS- C.IA

[Grizzcoat]

2nd Wave - GFS=