2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS first wave--

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS both waves ---

[Tom]

It's nice to see the models still holding onto the 2nd wave as it heads this way.  Nothing better than a daytime snow event on a weekend which will be nice to see.  I'm also noticing that some Lehs/LES may be in play here for SE WI/NE IL which may add some additional snow but I'm not sure if this is a great set up.  As Grizz noted, this should be a long duration snow event.

 

06z NAM picking up on both the Lehs/LES...

 

 

 

 

06z FV3...

 

[Clinton]

Good morning, it seems I have a shot at 5 or 6 inches this morning, I also noticed some models have my sky clearing late tonight and with a fresh snow pack temps should plummet,

[Tom]

00z Euro also seeing the Lehs/LES potential...this setup is interesting bc it will be a long duration wind event off the lake.  Could be some bonus snow for some spots along the lake???  Winds will be a bit gusty Sun afternoon as well.

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS came in a bit wetter overall across IA/IL for the 2nd wave and trending towards the GFS.  IA seems to be the location where the heaviest snows will fall with the 2nd wave.

 

KC region still does well with the 1st wave....

 

 

[Clinton]

The latest RAP still gives me a shot at warning level snow today.

[Hawkeye]

This is looking up for Iowa.  All models now drop 0.30-0.40" around here... over a pretty long period.  It's going to require a few snow board clearings.  It appears there will be a bit of wind, though, which I don't like.

[gosaints]

This is looking up for Iowa. All models now drop 0.30-0.40" around here... over a pretty long period. It's going to require a few snow board clearings. It appears there will be a bit of wind, though, which I don't like.

the wind could shatter some really nice dendrites

[Tom]

NCEP WPC (75% percentile) snowfall through 12z on Monday....

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

In KC this morning so can’t officially report on Central Nebraska. However, radar has looked really good and I saw visibility was .25 earlier. Looks like it could be a solid 3-5” event as the WWA has said. Always depends on heavier snow bands. NWS Hastings did up snow totals slightly and they mentioned a southern shift.

 

Now I get to report on how the west side of the KC Metro does today.

[Minny_Weather]

Central Nebraska cashing in on radar right now! Just gotta hope it holds together as it moves East.

[Niko]

Who knows, maybe SEMI can score a few flurries from this.. It looks much better for peeps south of me.

[CentralNebWeather]

Central Nebraska cashing in on radar right now! Just gotta hope it holds together as it moves East.

Looks like it. Too bad I’m not seeing it up close. Saw temp is only 8 degrees. We leave KC Sunday morning so probably some snow blowing or scooping in my future

[Stacsh]

Who knows, maybe SEMI can score a few flurries from this.. It looks much better for peeps south of me.

I think SMI west and east is SOL for snow for awhile.

[Clinton]

In KC this morning so can’t officially report on Central Nebraska. However, radar has looked really good and I saw visibility was .25 earlier. Looks like it could be a solid 3-5” event as the WWA has said. Always depends on heavier snow bands. NWS Hastings did up snow totals slightly and they mentioned a southern shift.

 

Now I get to report on how the west side of the KC Metro does today.

Afternoon rush hour will be terrible!  Kansas drivers

[Minny_Weather]

I'm scared looking at radar tbh. One shot of dry air into that line and our chances of anything appreciable are zapped. Gotta admit, it's not looking good for Omaha. And it's looking like best totals will be South of here for the trillionth time. We've been picking up Beatrice's scraps this whole winter, why not do it again?

[Niko]

I think SMI west and east is SOL for snow for awhile.

I think we stay dry for a couple of days and into early next week. Starting midweek and thereafter, it starts getting more active, especially as we head towards the end of the month and into the beginning of March. Temps will remain below the norm, but nothing outrageous.

[Minny_Weather]

Dry nose at 850mb is making its presence known. Radar indicates that we should be getting a pretty decent clip right now, but we're just getting flurries here atm. Hoping it can fill in.

[Minny_Weather]

How's Omaha doing? I see some returns over there, wondering if anything is making it to the ground or not.

[erburns18]

Heavy dry air. Down to zero visibility 

[East Dubzz]

NAM looks good around here again.

 

While certainly not terrible, Kuchera ratios are definitely showing the lower range that the DVN has mentioned. They’ve said ratios of 14-19:1, but Kuchera seems to be indicating 13-15:1, at least from what I’ve seen with the GFS & NAM. I’m guessing that’s probably more realistic.

[Bryan1117]

How's Omaha doing? I see some returns over there, wondering if anything is making it to the ground or not.

Nothing, not a single flake of snow falling. Dry air winning again.

 

On to tomorrow night, nothing to see here today around here.

[Clinton]

Moderate snow starting to fall a couple hours ahead of schedule.  I think the NWS should upgrade to a warning for areas south of KC including me.

[Stormhunter87]

Dry air is dominating here. Only saving grace is the storm on the 23rd-24th looks good.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting pixie dust dendrites falling at a decent clip. 00Z NAM runs hit it right on the head, we're not exactly the epitome of dry air here but this is where it starts, which should keep our totals down today. 8.2*F.

[East Dubzz]

Moderate snow starting to fall a couple hours ahead of schedule. I think the NWS should upgrade to a warning for areas south of KC including me.

Radar looks really impressive down there.

[Minny_Weather]

This thing looks a lot wider and slower than expected. I expected it to be a weenie band as did most other models, but there's a legit comma on radar. Hopefully Omaha can get rid of the dry air so they can get in on the fun too. Omadome is working in full force.

[Clinton]

Radar looks really impressive down there.

It went from nothing to getting after it in a matter of minutes.

[Minny_Weather]

Defo band looking feature is over GI/Hastings. Hoping that one holds together.

[Minny_Weather]

3km NAM advertised 0.2" here lol. Seeing that that's basically less than what we have now, I'm gonna go ahead and say 3km NAM can suck it. Same with normie NAM and its 0.0" solution.

[Tom]

Defo band looking feature is over GI/Hastings. Hoping that one holds together.

This is one healthy looking wave to say the least...you guys will do well...

[Grizzcoat]

2nd wave GFS

 

[Hawkeye]

NAM, ICON, GFS all drop 0.40" on CR/IC.  All three have the bulls-eye in south-central Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

both waves- GFS-

 

[Minny_Weather]

A little dry gap close to the surface is hurting returns as they get here. Flake size is puny but the clip is good. Once that fills in, we should be golden here. 

[Bryan1117]

2nd wave GFS

 

USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_072.gif

This model run really couldn’t be anymore depressing for us Omaha folks. Iowa cashes in AGAIN... disgusting!

[Tom]

12z NAM...Lehs signal is def viable...

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

Omaha and Lincoln deserve nothing out of this.  You guys have gotten 3 or 4 snow events just like this where my area didn't see even an inch.  It's my turn to enjoy something.  Took a walk for an hour while the best returns were here.  Had moderate to heavy snow and good flake size for a bit.  Probably around 3 inches with the back edge now approaching.

[Tom]

12z FV3...likely over juiced but the take-away is that the 2nd wave is holding together better over here...