2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[BrianJK]

If 35 inches of snow by 2/13 is considered 2 weeks of winter I will take it every year

I suppose it’s all personal preference. Roughly half that came in November, and was completely gone by 12/1. We then proceeded to spend the entire month of December and most of January with bare ground. The other half primarily fell in a 10 day stretch in February, and vanished as quickly as it came. So personally, I would not want that every year, but to each their own.

[jcwxguy]

18z GFS wave 1

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2 good for Iowa an Illinois

[jcwxguy]

Both waves

[Clinton]

18z RGEM similar to the Euro.

[jcwxguy]

18z RGEM similar to the Euro.

still snowing in Kansas also

[jcwxguy]

18z euro 1st wave

[Clinton]

00z NAM looking much better through hr 42.

[Stormhunter87]

These models keep pushing the snow away

[Clinton]

These models keep pushing the snow away

But they are sending it my way.  I think you will like wave 2 

[Clinton]

00z NAM wave 1 snow line on the north edge is sharp!

[CentralNebWeather]

00z NAM wave 1

Nice hit Central Nebraska to KC. I would take it. By the way, heading to Shawnee tomorrow night for the weekend, belated Christmas at my brother’s house, south of Kansas Speedway.

[Clinton]

Nice hit Central Nebraska to KC. I would take it. By the way, heading to Shawnee tomorrow night for the weekend, belated Christmas at my brother’s house, south of Kansas Speedway.

Nice, hope you have a great time and safe travels.

[snowstorm83]

Well that's a certainly a unique scenario that would make Lincoln people thrilled and Omaha people jump off a cliff. Don't know of a storm that's given Lincoln nearly 6" and Omaha nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice, hope you have a great time and safe travels.

Planned the trip around the weather. Get there about 10 pm tomorrow night and head back home Sunday morning. Central Nebraska may have freezing drizzle preceding the snow on Saturday. Wild weather the rest of the month for many of us.

[gabel23]

If the south trend continues then so will my chance at a good snow with the first wave; that northern cut off is as sharpe as can be and is closing in on my county.

[Clinton]

Nam total for both waves. 10:1 so these may be low.

[Minny_Weather]

Noooooooo not another sharp cutoff. Can we pleeeaaaassssseeeee have ONE storm that doesn't feature a razor thin cutoff?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Down to 1” total on the NAM for the two waves. Yawn. C’mon spring hurry up and get here already.

[Clinton]

Noooooooo not another sharp cutoff. Can we pleeeaaaassssseeeee have ONE storm that doesn't feature a razor thin cutoff?

Short range Hi Res models look much better for ya.

[jaster220]

00z NAM wave 1 snow line on the north edge is sharp!

 

Understatement award won!

[jcwxguy]

Rdps

[jaster220]

  Dang! UP is a storm magnet this winter. MQT with 46" OTG as of today. Over 60" in the Hurons NW of there.

 

[jcwxguy]

GFS 1st wave

[jcwxguy]

00z 3km nam

[East Dubzz]

GFS looks much weaker with the second wave. Think that has to do with the SLP basically disappearing.

[bud2380]

Gfs definitely cut back significantly on the 2nd wave. Still 4.5” for my back yard but down from 6” and just overall weaker. Probably more realistic

[jcwxguy]

GFS wave 2

[jcwxguy]

Cmc

[jcwxguy]

GFS both waves

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 first wave fwiw

[Clinton]

GFS looks much weaker with the second wave. Think that has to do with the SLP basically disappearing.

The NAM struggled today it kept loosing the storm at the 500mb level, but came around tonight.  The Hi Res models may have the best handle on these waves because they are not real strong.  I would guess the 2nd wave will produce similar amounts to the first wave just further north. The models will come around when the energy comes on shore.

[East Dubzz]

GFS still drops 4.5” here, which was a bit of a surprise. But high ratios and a long duration event help with that, obviously. Don’t think we’ll get that much, but a solid 1-3” event seems very plausible.

[East Dubzz]

GEM’s version of the Sunday storm is... interesting.

[Clinton]

GFS, ICON, and CMC all have a 3rd system Tuesday into Wed.  

[jcwxguy]

Better look at fv3 first wave

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2 fv3, and both waves together

[jcwxguy]

Wave3

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... both waves

 

[jcwxguy]

00z UK... both waves

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019021400_120_5660_220.png

dry here