March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Did any of you guys hear the story about the guy who got stuck during the snowstorm down in Oregon last week? Some guy got snowed in near sun river...got stuck in the car for 5 days...the guy literally ate taco seasoning packets because he didn’t have nothing else and he and the dog survived! Pretty crazy

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the WRF not only does not show snow on Wednesday but its actually sunny up here.   And its quite mild with highs in the upper 40s.

 

 

 

The FV3 agrees with the GFS... so its another chance to own the ECMWF which shows precip that day. 

[FroYoBro]

Didn't have that cold of a morning here with a low of 31. Up to 37 with winds increasing again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did any of you guys hear the story about the guy who got stuck during the snowstorm down in Oregon last week? Some guy got snowed in near sun river...got stuck in the car for 5 days...the guy literally ate taco seasoning packets because he didn’t have nothing else and he and the dog survived! Pretty crazy

 

When I heard he was missing in that storm I thought for sure he was a goner. Was glad to hear he made it out. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 40 at 10 a.m. 

 

New 12Z ECMWF shows a high of 41 there today... so I don't expect the temp to rise too much more even if its a couple degrees too cool.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF not backing down either and shows precip moving up from the south on Wednesday.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday evening...

 

[TT-SEA]

Early Thursday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It looks like precip is initialy rain or freezing rain for most of the WV and then it turns to snow overnight into Thursday morning as the upper levels cool.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the GFS, FV3, and GEM are all dry in the Wednesday/Thursday period.

[TacomaWaWx]

So it’s the gfs vs euro again basically, considering recent events I’m betting gfs

[TT-SEA]

Thursday morning 4-10 a.m.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ash Wednesday special !

First day of Lent! Can't believe it's that time of year already.

[jcmcgaffey]

I agree with you that our average springs are quite nice. But there is no denying we have been building up some cold spring karma the last several years. Time will tell if that actually means anything.

Granted we have been building cold karma for all seasons but I was thinking spring has been closer to the average temp more so than any other season recently. I remember recently getting a lot of cold patterns that I was wishing we would have gotten during winter. Summer has been the most ridiculous season in terms of warm temp anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Highs Thursday...

 

 

And that is with southerly flow...

 

[GHweatherChris]

FWIW... the GFS, FV3, and GEM are all dry in the Wednesday/Thursday period.

What's up with adding FWIW to almost every post?

[TacomaWaWx]

Possible some snow will happen in WA Wednesday night according to euro but not the gfs, something to watch but the euro completely caved to the gfs last time when that snowstorm went into central/southern Oregon, I’m betting this will do the same most likely

[TT-SEA]

What's up with adding FWIW to almost every post?

Making it clear that I have absolutely no idea which model is right. Otherwise people assume by reporting what a model shows means that is what I think will happen. That happens all the time.

[El_Nina]

I'm betting with the Euro, it is due to be right.

[MossMan]

What's up with adding FWIW to almost every post?

People will accuse him of Cherry picking.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW... the GFS, FV3, and GEM are all dry in the Wednesday/Thursday period.

  

So it’s the gfs vs euro again basically, considering recent events I’m betting gfs

The 12Z UKMET looks to be more in line with the EURO. Here's the precipitation maps from Tuesday 10pm to Wednesday 4pm.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Making it clear that I have absolutely no idea which model is right. Otherwise people assume by reporting what a model shows means that is what I think will happen. That happens all the time.

Weird, because you dont use it when you post about the Euro, but whatever.

[snow_wizard]

No way to know if we are going to see big changes in any of the seasons, really.

 

I dunno.  This whole event has broken so many rules and is so epic.  It smells like a regime change, but we won't know for sure for a few years.

[TT-SEA]

Weird, because you dont use it when you post about the Euro, but whatever.

 

 

Strange... you endlessly nitpick everything I say.   I thought we agreed to a truce?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows another almost totally sunny weekend ahead.  

 

Mid 40s on Saturday and around 50 on Sunday.     

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 41... that is the high for the day per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

38 here with surprisingly little wind.   

[snow_wizard]

The European models really like the idea of snow at mid week.

[GHweatherChris]

Strange... you endlessly nitpick everything I say. I thought we agreed to a truce?

Just asked a question.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF and 12Z FV3 look almost identical on day 8.     The model disagreement with precip on Wednesday does not mean the models are completely out of sync.

 

ECMWF...

 

 

 

FV3:

 

[TT-SEA]

The European models really like the idea of snow at mid week.

 

Almost nothing for us though... looks very similar to this past Wednesday.     I don't expect anything more than flurries even at my house.  

[snow_wizard]

Impressive 500mb anomaly map for February.  We were helped greatly by the ridge bridge extending to Greenland.  It helped compensate for the big + anom over the GOA being further south than it would normally be in our great months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem all the way up to 43 already. Their highs always seem to be a few degrees warmer than anywhere else in the valley anymore. Amazing they managed 26 straight sub 50 highs. I'm running 8 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time, but they are still running exactly the same as yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

Almost nothing for us though... looks very similar to this past Wednesday.     I don't expect anything more than flurries even at my house.  

 

You could be right.  The airmass over us will be incredibly dry going into this.  The UKIE being so wet could mean we have a shot at overcoming that.

[snow_wizard]

Salem all the way up to 43 already. Their highs always seem to be a few degrees warmer than anywhere else in the valley anymore. Amazing they managed 26 straight sub 50 highs. I'm running 8 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time, but they are still running exactly the same as yesterday.

 

It's running about 8 degrees colder here today than this time yesterday.  Currently 39.

[TT-SEA]

Overall... the 12Z ECMWF shows benign weather for the Seattle area. Highs in the 40s to low 50s and less than .50 total precip over the next 10 days and plenty of sunshine. A charmed life compared to places to our east.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 43 at 11 a.m.

 

That is already 2 degrees above what the 12Z ECMWF showed.

[Perturbed Member]

12z ECMWF looks like light rain arrives in PDX a bit after noon Wednesday with temps in the low to mid 30s and very marginal 850 mb temps, moderate precip arrives by 5-6 PM and changes over to all snow from north to south and entire airmass cooling nicely. Snow continues close to midnight. Smells like a fairly traditional gorge driven overrunning event here...except it is March? Hopefully the GFS/FV3/NAM can come into agreement with giving us a little snow.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's running about 8 degrees colder here today than this time yesterday.  Currently 39.

 

Only 31 here. Going to have a hard time hitting 40 again today.

[TT-SEA]

Here was the 00Z EPS guidance for Seattle over the next 15 days... and it seems to run about 3 degrees too cool for Seattle on average.

 

Evidenced by the fact that SEA is already above what it showed for today. 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX sitting at 38 at 11am. I doubt they see much if any warming after 2pm. Don't think a sub-40 high is in the cards, but 40-42 seems like a good bet.