Kayla Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 The Weather Channel is showing significant flood potential for Montana due to all the snow melt. Yeah we're under a state of emergency because of the flooding concerns. The Missoula area is getting hit the hardest right now with their rivers starting to hit major flood stage. Things haven't been bad here in Bozeman yet but Helena has also been having some flooding troubles over this past week. All the rain coming this week and weekend sure isn't going to help the cause. Still a ton of snowpack to melt off so we've got a ways to go. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 Record heat likely on the way tomorrow. 86 is the record for DEN, and 88 is the forecast. Weekend still looks to cool down, but not as much as it appeared and lower chances of rain. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 Fake news! Whatever is happening way to your south is the EXACT same thing that is happening there. If Colorado or New Mexico is in a drought then so is Montana. This is not negotiable. What has happened for much of this winter season is that the jet has remained far to the north with copious amounts of rain and snow in places such as Montana, while the Four Corners region and California had below to much below normal precipitation both in rain and mountain snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 It's been quite warm this week but that is changing here too with the cut off low dropping in. Should be a lot of rain Friday-Saturday, and continued showers most of next week. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 It's been quite warm this week but that is changing here too with the cut off low dropping in. Should be a lot of rain Friday-Saturday, and continued showers most of next week. Enjoy! Latest models look a bit more promising overall for this side of the mountains, especially Saturday night onward. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Enjoy! Latest models look a bit more promising overall for this side of the mountains, especially Saturday night onward.We all need it, but I think your area needs it more, so hopefully it works out. Given how dry most of the winter was, this is good timing to delay the start of fire season. We actually had a pretty good thunderstorm last night so that was fun. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Rain continues up here with all sorts of flood advisories, watches and warnings up. There are even some snow advisories up for today/tonight. Looks like the Clark River over in Missoula is about to reach its highest level since 1908 so major flooding continues over there. Long term forecasts do not show much relief with the EPS mean showing an additional 2.5" of precip in Bozeman over the next 15 days. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Stark contrast between winter cold/ snow in Montana and drought in the Southwesthttps://twitter.com/NWSWPC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Lots of storms around the past few days, but most have missed my backyard. Some severe ones affecting the south metro area right now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Love the weather here lately. Scattered storms most days (haven't had much luck right at my house) and nice temperatures. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 18, 2018 Report Share Posted May 18, 2018 Should get a nice soaking here over the next 48 hours. Chance of severe weather from Denver east, with golf ball size hail and maybe a few tornadoes. Hopefully it mostly clears out by tomorrow night, since I'm planning on going camping. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 19, 2018 Report Share Posted May 19, 2018 Been a chilly and wet couple of days up this way. Highs only in the 40's with off and on showers over the past couple of days. Did a run up to Mt Baldy (just above Bozeman) this morning and it was FREEZING with temps in the mid 20's and wind chills in the teens. Looking forward to a little more warmth this upcoming week. Thunderstorms are in the forecast almost every day next week but temps should be warming into the 70's. http://i63.tinypic.com/2j3l36w.jpghttp://i67.tinypic.com/2gum9ol.jpg Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Had a heavy hailstorm Friday afternoon in Boulder. Cloudy all weekend with occasional rain/drizzle. Don't think I've seen the sun once since Thursday! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Had a heavy hailstorm Friday afternoon in Boulder. Cloudy all weekend with occasional rain/drizzle. Don't think I've seen the sun once since Thursday!How much/how big? Lots of thunderstorms in the area the last few days but little luck where I am at. Overall still quite nice though. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 How much/how big? Lots of thunderstorms in the area the last few days but little luck where I am at. Overall still quite nice though. Only about pea size, but very heavy for about 15-20 minutes. Enough to accumulate a couple inches on highway 36. This was about 45 minutes after the hail had ended. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Fort Collins is getting destroyed by a severe storm right now. Formed just north of here, so completely missed out. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Fort Collins is getting destroyed by a severe storm right now. Formed just north of here, so completely missed out.Do they get more severe weather up there than Boulder? We had two rounds of thunderstorms yesterday. Another chance today for more rain. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Been a very rainy couple of days here. 0.30" yesterday and already a 0.25" so far today. This May started out on the drier side but it's looking like a very wet second half as this is our 8th consecutive day of measurable precip. Looks like tomorrow and Friday may bring some drier conditions with a few storms before things pick back up over the weekend into early next week. In fact, the 12z GFS this morning showed an additional 3.5-4" of precipitation over the next 10 days. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Been a very rainy couple of days here. 0.30" yesterday and already a 0.25" so far today. This May started out on the drier side but it's looking like a very wet second half as this is our 8th consecutive day of measurable precip. Looks like tomorrow and Friday may bring some drier conditions with a few storms before things pick back up over the weekend into early next week. In fact, the 12z GFS this morning showed an additional 3.5-4" of precipitation over the next 10 days.How is the urban sprawl out there? I’ve heard that Bozeman is blowing up lately. They are worried it will start to have an affect on migrating wildlife populations in greater Yellowstone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 How is the urban sprawl out there? I’ve heard that Bozeman is blowing up lately. They are worried it will start to have an affect on migrating wildlife populations in greater Yellowstone. It's not too bad...yet! They are working hard to keep things within the city limits and are not granting anymore well permits to unclaimed land so that will also help. Of course it's Montana so open space is priority one in all planning. Still seeing plenty of Elk, Eagles, Bears and even the occasional Moose cruising through the city limits during fall migrations. Their main routes (Gallatin, Hyalite, Cottonwood Canyons) from Yellowstone are still wide open through to the lower valleys and their winter habitats. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Also nice to see new orders like these still being put into action. http://greateryellowstone.org/blog/2018/2/9/sec-zinke-conserve-elk-deer-pronghorn-migrations 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 Do they get more severe weather up there than Boulder? We had two rounds of thunderstorms yesterday. Another chance today for more rain. Not that I've noticed. Greeley/Windsor area east of FoCo definitely gets more, though. Just like DIA area gets more than Denver proper or where I live. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 First 90+ weather of the year coming up this weekend for me (DEN saw a 90 on the 10th, but I only hit 87 that day). Looks like 92-94 likely for this area, which is just short of records. Next solid chance of rain/storms may not be until the very end of the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 First 90+ weather of the year coming up this weekend for me (DEN saw a 90 on the 10th, but I only hit 87 that day). Looks like 92-94 likely for this area, which is just short of records. Next solid chance of rain/storms may not be until the very end of the month.87F is the best we have done back in late April. We might get close to 90F tomorrow but I don't think we quite make it, and after that its at least a week before we might have another shot at it. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 87F is the best we have done back in late April. We might get close to 90F tomorrow but I don't think we quite make it, and after that its at least a week before we might have another shot at it. 78F is what I've topped out here also back in late April and 83F at MSU. No 80's let alone 90's here in sight of course. This year you kind of get the sense that we won't see 90+ until July, if that even. 1997 was the last year that didn't ever crest 90+ in Bozeman and that year has been a pretty darn good analog for this year so far. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 78F is what I've topped out here also back in late April and 83F at MSU. No 80's let alone 90's here in sight of course. This year you kind of get the sense that we won't see 90+ until July, if that even. 1997 was the last year that didn't ever crest 90+ in Bozeman and that year has been a pretty darn good analog for this year so far.Your cold bias for your area is almost as notable as the strange warm bias you’ve developed for the place you used to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 Your cold bias for your area is almost as notable as the strange warm bias you’ve developed for the place you used to live. What would Jesse like me to post today then?? I'd love to see some warmer and drier weather out here but it would be fake news. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 What would Jesse like me to post today then?? I'd love to see some warmer and drier weather out here but it would be fake news. I didn't realize that. I figured you had been enjoying the lack of heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 24, 2018 Report Share Posted May 24, 2018 I didn't realize that. I figured you had been enjoying the lack of heat. To a certain extent... It was a loooong winter so it would be nice to see things dry out and warm up for longer than a couple of days. Of course I'm not a fan of 100F type heat but some sustainable 75-80's and dry weather would be nice to start to see showing up on the models. No such luck. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 27, 2018 Report Share Posted May 27, 2018 Despite some thick high clouds moving in this afternoon, DEN managed 94 today, one short of the record. 90 in my backyard. Tomorrow should be about the same, depending on cloud cover. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2018 Several rounds of thunderstorms today. Even managed some small hail. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 28, 2018 Report Share Posted May 28, 2018 Looking like a pretty stormy memorial day on tap here, with some severe potential. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 28, 2018 Report Share Posted May 28, 2018 Been a beautiful weekend here with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's and dry skies. Good chance for storms here this afternoon as well but nothing severe. Wednesday is looking like a pretty good chance for severe storms right over my area though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 Under a "slight" risk for severe storms here this afternoon and tomorrow. Not too often that the SPC puts Bozeman in the slight risk category so it will be interesting to see how things fire up today. Biggest threats look to be golf ball size hail and 60+ MPH winds. Really hope we do not see that large of hail as that would cause all sorts of property damage let alone my car that is outside right now... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 It's been an active month here with more thunderstorms expected today. I haven't had anything severe or really super intense, but certainly a lot of small stuff. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted May 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 Only 1.48" of rain this month at my place, about 75% of normal, but 13 days with rain and 4 in a row. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 It was a very warm month here (over +4 at DEN), with near normal precip. A few good storms, but nothing spectacular for what is the stormiest time of the year per climo. May 2015 was nice. 7.82" for Boulder, over 5" for DEN. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 Yesterday was a dud but today is looking very active already. Sounds like we'll be put under a Severe Watch shortly and Missoula is currently under a Severe Storm Warning with a very strong cell about to move through there. Latest from the SPC: "Areas affected...Far northeast Nevada...central and easternIdaho...far northwest Wyoming...western and southern MontanaConcerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likelyValid 311833Z - 312030ZProbability of Watch Issuance...80 percentSUMMARY...Trends for convection are increasing and one or moreSevere Thunderstorm Watches will be likely be needed this afternoon.DISCUSSION...Large scale lift is currently impinging on regionsexperiencing low-level moistening atop modestly steep lapse rates(6.5-7.5 C/km within a 1-6km layer). The inclusion of diurnalheating occurring between cloud breaks along with the availablelow-level moisture and steepening lapse rates are allowing MUCAPEvalues to exceed 1000 J/kg in some locations within the discussionarea. Given effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts across theregion, updraft organization is possible with any cells that manageto develop. Relatively straight hodographs suggest that large hailand perhaps damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threats.Latest high resolution guidance suggests that transient supercellsand bowing segments will be the dominant modes of convection, withconvective coverage increasing within the next few hours. As such,one or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be neededsometime this afternoon." Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 Just had nickel size hail roll through with our first storm of the day. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued: "URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm Watch Number 140NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK150 PM MDT Thu May 31 2018The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions ofMontana* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until1000 PM MDT.* Primary threats include...Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2inches in diameter possibleScattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possibleA tornado or two possibleSUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to developthis afternoon, initially across western and southern Montana, andspread east-northeastward through late afternoon and evening. Strongshear and a very moist environment will support the potential forlarge hail and damaging winds.The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest ofButte MT to 25 miles southeast of Miles City MT. For a completedepiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update" 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gardenmom Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 I'm guessing I now belong in this forum. Moved to Rupert Idaho just over a month ago. The thunderstorms have been amazing. Yesterday and today have been quite active. Had an amazing cloud pass over Saturday. I was told it was a shelf cloud. Very cool looking! I got an awesome picture but can't figure out how to load it here. I've read how to in the past on the Northwest forum but can't remember. Got it loaded on the Fox 12 blog a few days ago though! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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