April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

I'm expecting cooler than last summer at this point. Maybe 2016-ish.

Cooler than one of our hottest summers on record?

 

#keepingthosecallsbold

[TacomaWaWx]

I see blue skies now looks like the back end of the front is here.

Radar suggests it won’t last too long.

[TT-SEA]

You aren’t a very funny person.

 

Likewise.

 

Your hatred of me probably does not help your perception either.

[Phil]

I’m starting to wonder when that is going to shift to mid-2020s. Probably soon since we are only 9 months away from the early 2020s.

 

And yeah, I don’t think anyone is expecting a cool summer this year.

Nope. I’m as confident as ever, for whatever it’s worth.

 

It may sound bizarre, but the year with the greatest ENSO “certainty” (based on my methodology) is 2021/22, which is essentially a lock to be a moderate or strong La Niña.

 

This accounts for the *very* slight possibility 2019/20 hiccups warm neutral/weak niño again, then 2020/21 goes moderate/strong niño. Again, very, very unlikely, but it would shift the resonance period by a year. Still the picture would not change at all..a multi-year La Niña is highly likely in the early 2020s.

[Phil]

Sounds like spring.

Relative to climatology.

 

Don’t be a Tim.

[TT-SEA]

This accounts for the *very* slight possibility 2019/20 hiccups warm neutral/weak niño again, then 2020/21 goes moderate/strong niño. Again, very, very unlikely, but it would shift the resonance period by a year. Still the picture would not change at all..a multi-year La Niña is highly likely in the early 2020s.

 

So we might spend 3 years warming up to get to a moderate/strong Nina just 2 years away.

 

I know...I know. Then it will finally be the end of all life on Earth as we crash into the next ice age.

 

If we end up neutral warm this coming winter and then have a strong Nino next winter... it would be almost a given that a Nina was coming. My daughter could look at the historical cycles and predict that without even knowing what a Nino or Nina is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z is pretty chilly in the long range. Almost chilly enough to make me nervous about some of the definitive statements I made earlier...ALMOST. 

[TT-SEA]

Relative to climatology.

 

Don’t be a Tim.

 

 

Spring usually features swings between colder than normal and warmer than normal periods.   Often more exaggerated than other seasons... and that is actually normal.    As you know from firsthand experience.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nope. I’m as confident as ever, for whatever it’s worth.

 

It may sound bizarre, but the year with the greatest ENSO “certainty” (based on my methodology) is 2021/22, which is essentially a lock to be a moderate or strong La Niña.

 

This accounts for the *very* slight possibility 2019/20 hiccups warm neutral/weak niño again, then 2020/21 goes moderate/strong niño. Again, very, very unlikely, but it would shift the resonance period by a year. Still the picture would not change at all..a multi-year La Niña is highly likely in the early 2020s.

 

Hope it is better than the 1998-2001 dudfest.

[Jesse]

Likewise.

 

Your hatred of me probably does not help your perception either.

True. If I were being more objective I could probably see how hilarious it really was.

[TT-SEA]

Hope it is better than the 1998-2001 dudfest.

 

 

That is the million dollar question... and there is no way to answer that now.

 

Sometimes a Nino delivers big time cold and snow... and sometimes a Nina delivers crap.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is the million dollar question... and there is no way to answer that now.

 

Sometimes a Nino delivers big time cold and snow... and sometimes a Nina delivers crap.  

 

Yeah, doesn't make much difference to me either way anymore. This year we had a weak Nino and it delivered BIG TIME.

[Phil]

So we might spend 3 years warming up to get to a moderate/strong Nino just 2 years away.

 

I know...I know. Then it will finally be the end of all life on Earth as we crash into the next ice age.

Do you actually believe I said any of that?

 

I truly feel sorry for you. Dead serious. To be born into this world with such a prolific mental handicap must be a burden beyond words. My condolences, friend.

 

If we end up neutral warm this coming winter and then have a strong Nino next winter... it would be almost a given that a Nina was coming. My daughter could look at the historical cycles and predict that without even knowing what a Nino or Nina is.

Okay, Tim.

 

Now go back in time to 2016 and try to make that same prediction. IIRC, you mocked me for predicting a niño in 2019/20 back then. And you littered the forum with emojis when I predicted the 2018/19 event would start strong but fade. And I’m far from perfect..I screw up all the time. I’m human. But I don’t stealthily move goalposts..I’m pretty up front about it when I have to adjust.

 

But hey, you be you. Keep spinning false narratives and posting cherry picked EPS maps to soothe your irreparably damaged is psyche.

[TT-SEA]

Phil.   Triggered.   

[TT-SEA]

Now go back in time to 2016 and try to make that same prediction. 

 

 

I thought we were supposed to be long gone off the ice age cliff by the time we approached 2020.     

[Blizzard777]

Pouring down sun and blue sky now

[Deweydog]

Springy day!

 

I prefer memory foam.

[Phil]

I thought we were supposed to be long gone off the ice age cliff by the time we approached 2020.

Lay off the fentanyl, brother. Seriously. There are healthier ways to survive the rainy season SAD cycle.

 

Try a UV light, Vitamin D supplementation, and regular cardiovascular exercise. Perhaps a keto diet. It’s clean, and you won’t have these false ice age memories popping up 24/7.

[TT-SEA]

Lay off the fentanyl, brother. Seriously. There are healthier ways to survive the rainy season SAD cycle.

 

Try a UV light and some Vitamin D supplementation. Clean and you won’t have false ice age memories popping up 24/7.

 

 

Triggered.   

 

But sadly we have not seen the sun here in months... not even a hint of sun.   Just endless rain.  

[Jesse]

What Tim is saying about Phil and the ice age predictions is 100% correct.

[Phil]

 

Triggered.

Just doing my best to be a sounding board.

 

You get antsy like this whenever a rainy pattern establishes during the spring/summer. It’s quite revealing. So if I can help you vent your anxiety without harming yourself or others, then it’s a win in my book.

[Jesse]

What Phil is saying about Tim getting antsy during rainy patterns is also 100% correct.

[TacomaWaWx]

April storm again this year in the first week of April it appears...if the forecast holds up.

[TT-SEA]

Just doing my best to be a sounding board.

 

You get antsy like this whenever a rainy pattern establishes during the spring/summer. It’s quite revealing. So if I can help you vent your anxiety without harming yourself or others, then it’s a win in my book.

 

OK Phil.  

 

I would be much more concerned if we did not have a rainy pattern at this point.  That is no joke.  It feels good to have a couple normal fronts finally.  Its been a long time.   And this is not really a long term rainy pattern.   That only lasts through Sunday and then we are back to the same pattern we have had recently with everything focused to our south.  

 

Just glancing at the 18Z GFS... the next truly rainy day here after Sunday is 12 days out.    That is not what I expected after our record dry March.

[Phil]

What Tim is saying about Phil and the ice age predictions is 100% correct.

Posts like this^ do trigger me. Because it’s rubbish.

 

I never predicted an instantaneous crash into an ice age like that. You can repeat that lie all you want, but it won’t change reality. And I’m not inclined to show decency to those who continue to perpetuate a lie so ridiculous that it can legitimately compare with my Stampede Pass whopper on the scale of absurdity.

[Requiem]

April storm again this year in the first week of April it appears...if the forecast holds up.

 

Maybe that could shift a wee little bit south? Wishful thinking?

[Phil]

Okay, maybe it’s not on par with Stampede Pass. Not sure anything can compete with that. But it’s still a lie. At the very least it’s a misunderstanding.

 

Either way it’s not true.

[TacomaWaWx]

Maybe that could shift a wee little bit south? Wishful thinking?

you never know, honestly there’s other systems forecasted to come through Sunday and Monday so Portland may end up with something at some point. too early to know yet.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Driving back from eugene. Darkest and most amazing rainbow just north of salem and sustained all the way to Woodburn. Pics when I get home to my laptop.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some heavy showers moving NE from NW Oregon and SW Washington moving into the Olympia area. I can see the dark ominous clouds already moving in after beautiful clear skies for about an hour.

Had a few strong gusts come through when the back end of the front passed through along with some heavy rain. Strongest gusts were probably about 30 or so nothing crazy.

[GHweatherChris]

#Iceage2020

[Tyler Mode]

Finally some thunder, and cold thunder too.  Sitting at 49 degrees.

[Front Ranger]

According to Google... that means the trees will sway a little more.    I guess trees will actually bend with the "wind gusts" (check my spelling) and then go back to normal when those "wind gusts" subside.    I also read that in extreme cases... the trees will actually fall down to the ground and die.    That would be sad.  

 

Post of the millennia.

[Jesse]

#Iceage2020

#IceCage2020

 

[Front Ranger]

Cooler than one of our hottest summers on record?

 

#keepingthosecallsbold

 

That's not bold these days? 

 

Last summer was not even close to hottest on record at OLM, fwiw. Barely cracked the top 10.

[GHweatherChris]

#IceCage2020

 

653FBB5F-59BC-4139-8368-538F3FE46546.jpeg

Is that Phil holding Nic Cage?

[Front Ranger]

Is that Phil holding Nic Cage?

 

I believe that's actually Phil holding Tim, who does bear a striking resemblance to early 2000s Nic Cage.

[Phil]

Here’s an interesting stat. There are only three years that had DJFM NAO values of +0.6 or higher, which then saw the NAO flip negative in April (as 2019 will do). They are 1983, 1995, and 2000. Which were all coolish summers in the PNW.

 

 

Then again, none of those were El Niño years, so if we ignore the tiny sample size issue, does the ENSO disconnect invalidate the correlation? Or might it suggest this year won’t trend into an El Niño after all? Or is it 100% meaningless and a total fluke?

[Front Ranger]

I thought we were supposed to be long gone off the ice age cliff by the time we approached 2020.     

 

That was the heroin and bath salts talking. Not fair to hold him to that. 

[Phil]