April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

People give you more crap than anyone here but you pretty much always have evidence to back up what you’re saying. You were wrong about the snow that ended up going into Oregon a couple months back but that’s all I can think of .

You haven’t been posting here very long.

[TT-SEA]

People give you more crap than anyone here but you pretty much always have evidence to back up what you’re saying. You were wrong about the snow that ended up going into Oregon a couple months back but that’s all I can think of .

 

 

I am often wrong about the upcoming patterns.  

 

But our historical averages are not really debatable.    The Seattle area does not have long, hot summers normally.   Just the opposite actually.

[Jesse]

The Pacific Northwest actually has a notably long summer dry season compared to most of the country. Especially east of the Rockies.

[TacomaWaWx]

I am often wrong about the upcoming patterns.

 

But our historical averages are not really debatable. The Seattle area does not have long, hot summers normally. Just the opposite actually.

Well nobody’s right about the patterns usually that’s almost impossible to be 100% correct, not even actual meteorologists are always right. You do have a lot of facts on historical averages and past PNW weather, much more than I do, I haven’t been around in the forum to see why everyone here seems to not like you but you generally seem to have good arguments and evidence, you seem like a nice guy I don’t have a problem with you and I respect your opinions.

[TT-SEA]

The Pacific Northwest actually has a notably long summer dry season compared to most of the country. Especially east of the Rockies.

 

 

There is usually an 8-week dry period up here.   With an average high in the 70s.    Obviously places to the east are wetter due to the seasonal monsoon and Gulf of Mexico moisture east of the Rockies.   Those places are hotter and more humid too.  

 

Our summers are very tame and pleasant compared to most of the country,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Headed over to North Central Oregon yesterday. Took 26 over Mount Hood then down past White River Falls, over Sherar’s Bridge on the Deschutes, and eventually Cottonwood Canyon State Park on the lower John Day River. There was light to moderate rain most of the day even over there. The trajectory of the precipitation limited shadowing. In fact I noticed that The Dalles had a higher precip total than Portland yesterday.

 

Things were very green in the desert, and the John Day was running high. White River falls was also the fullest and muddiest I’ve ever seen it. Pics to come.

 

John Day is at Flood Stage. If this verifies it will be the 6th highest Crest ever recorded on the JD at Service Creek. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

You haven’t been posting here very long.

I’ve been viewing the forum for a few months before I started posting, Many of you guys are smart guys with good opinions and weather knowledge, I’ve learned a lot from coming on here and reading and having discussions with you guys, I’ve got a lot to learn.

[Kayla]

Headed over to North Central Oregon yesterday. Took 26 over Mount Hood then down past White River Falls, over Sherar’s Bridge on the Descutes, and eventually Cottonwood Canyon State Park on the lower John Day River. There was light to moderate rain most of the day even over there. The trajectory of the precipitation limited shadowing. In fact I noticed that The Dalles had a higher precip total than Portland yesterday.

 

Things were very green in the desert, and the John Day was running high. White River falls was also the fullest and muddiest I’ve ever seen it. Pics to come.

 

Surprised things are greening up over there already after the late winter cold. Things are still brown as dirt here as the snow melts. Elk are on the move again though.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/28kkmqp.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Surprised things are greening up over there already after the late winter cold. Things are still brown as dirt here as the snow melts. Elk are on the move again though.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/28kkmqp.jpg

 

 

When was that pic taken?    That is still quite a bit of snow.

[Blizzard777]

Drizzle!

[TT-SEA]

Again I ask...  is Justin OK?   Its been weeks since he posted.

[Kayla]

When was that pic taken?    That is still quite a bit of snow.

 

Took that on Friday before all this rain hit. Live cam view out the backyard right now is ugly...

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2m35qgy.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Again I ask...  is Justin OK?   Its been weeks since he posted.

 

He was viewing the thread this morning at 330am when I posted.

[TacomaWaWx]

He was viewing the thread this morning at 330am when I posted.

Half of the people who are on the thread usually are probably hibernating until October due to weather dullness.

[TT-SEA]

Half of the people who are on the thread usually are probably hibernating until October due to weather dullness.

 

 

Justin is usually active on here all summer.  

[TacomaWaWx]

[TT-SEA]

He was viewing the thread this morning at 330am when I posted.

 

That is good to know.

[TT-SEA]

he probably doesn’t think discussions of wether our summers are cool or hot or if the trees are blossoming on time are interesting enough I guess

 

He usually leads the climo discussions on here... in all seasons.  

 

He has an incredible memory of historical events and years.   His absence has been a little worrisome.  

[Jesse]

I’ve been viewing the forum for a few months before I started posting, Many of you guys are smart guys with good opinions and weather knowledge, I’ve learned a lot from coming on here and reading and having discussions with you guys, I’ve got a lot to learn.

Yeah but this place has been around for over ten years more or less. Much of the discussion between long time members is based on a lot of history. A lot of stuff might seem out of context if you are relatively new.

 

Appreciate the kind words though! We are glad to have you.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah but this place has been around for over ten years more or less. Much of the discussion between long time members is based on a lot of history. A lot of stuff might seem out of context if you are relatively new.

 

Appreciate the kind words though! We are glad to have you.

 

 

I think there is a group of us that has been posting since 2005... so almost 15 years now.

[Phil]

Is the sun stronger there now than it would be here in July?

I have baby skin at this time of year, since I’m outside less for work during the winter. I always burn in the spring, or at least I notice it more.

 

I’m pretty brown come mid/late May.

[TacomaWaWx]

[Phil]

At this point I would not be surprised to see a pattern flip in a week or two. Hopefully not as extreme as what we saw last year, where a summer type pattern established by late April.

Don’t worry, this isn’t a repeat of last year. At all.

 

There might be an intraseasonal overlap in late April or May for a few weeks following the final warming event that feels similar, but this is a very different pattern in the grand scheme of things.

[Phil]

We won’t stop hearing about the drought until it is actually over. If the rain cuts off a week from now and we enter a hot summer pattern until October (looking quite likely) we will be right back to where we were last year. This pattern definitely helps and we are better off than we’d be without it, but it also needs to rain in May and June around here sometimes, unfortunately.

I see you guys repeating this gobbledygook and I don’t know what you’re basing it on? Why do you think this?

 

It’s not going to happen. Unless the niño somehow fails and the subtropical NPAC becomes a convection machine, the moisture source looks perfect with a flat/equatorward 4CH.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thursday looking very wet again. Maybe another 1.5-2" of rain in 24 hours at my place.

 

[Phil]

Phil analyzed atmospheric and oceanic conditions for 2019 and saw the pattern being the most similar to 1997, which was a fairly average summer that had very little heat.

 

Now this doesn’t fully prove anything, but it is a start to understanding what this summer could be like. It could still be hot and dry for all we know.

On the large scale, yeah 1997 appears to be the ideal low pass analog..though perhaps not the best high frequency (month to month) analog. Timing a bit different with respect to the exact wavecycles, but their structures match well.

 

1997, 2002, 1978, 1990, 1991, 1969, 1980, and the volcano contaminated 1983 all line up w/ QBO except 1991, and most line up w/ ENSO minus a few.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws forecast Disc. This morning does mention a chance for some convective showers or t-storms possibly south of Seattle.

[Phil]

I actually remember this summer. You do have a point it does happen. This happening however is about as rare as it snowing 2’ in Tacoma for the winter. Like a 1 and 10 chance of a summer ending up like that one.

The last several summers were all driven by a bizarre convection pattern in the WPAC. The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool consistently wound up displaced NE of it’s climatological location, which also dynamically reinforced the +PMM/off-equator warmth in the NPAC SSTs. The summer of 2017 was the weirdest case, where it had finally relaxed by spring but again wound up in that same displaced mode thanks to a bizarre QBO hiccup under the perfect ENSO/OKW cycle timing to slosh it. I missed it and it caused one of my worst seasonal forecast busts ever.

 

This year, at long last, it’s (sort of) the inverse of the last several years, with the eastern portion of the IPWP largely drained thanks to the ENSO/OKW cycles pumping the niño and the low frequency priming by solar forcing shrinking the Hadley Cell.

[Jesse]

I think there is a group of us that has been posting since 2005... so almost 15 years now.

I think I’ve been posting here (or Western before here) since late 2007 or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is now at 6.08" of rain on the month which is good for 5th wettest April on record at Mahlon Sweet Airport.

[TacomaWaWx]

[jakeinthevalley]

Willamette is probably about as high as I have seen it since I started working here in 2014.

 

That ought to clear out some of the homeless camps.

 

Will be interesting to see if the Corps will have to start increasing the flows out of Detroit and Green Peter as they near full pool. Right now they are holding a lot of water back in those drainages and flushing hard from the upper basin tributaries. Anything over 25' at the Salem gauge puts a bunch of people in harms way. South River road from Salem to Independence will be closed soon, if not already.

[Phil]

This April is nothing like 2018, btw. Midwest snow always happens in Spring.

 

It was freezing here last April...it’s 80+ degrees right now. And lots of upper 60s/low 70s this month with more coming. So similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be nicer for both trees and people if it could be spread out a little more!

 

I agree. Interesting to note the #1 and #2 wettest April's were back to back in 1992 and 1993. Both summers couldn't have turned out more differently. 

[Tyler Mode]

Looks like some convection firing off the coast of Washington despite lots of cloud cover. 

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+12

[Jesse]

Looks like maybe one more wave moving along the quasi-stationary front this afternoon before it finally starts to trek east. Hopefully another good slug of precip for the Portland metro.

[Omegaraptor]

Is there any explanation for Portland missing every storm in the last few months other than simple chance?

[TT-SEA]

Is there any explanation for Portland missing every storm in the last few months other than simple chance?

 

Just luck of the draw.

[TacomaWaWx]

Is there any explanation for Portland missing every storm in the last few months other than simple chance?

Wasn’t that long ago that people in Seattle felt the way you are feeling, It’ll all balance out.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like some convection firing off the coast of Washington despite lots of cloud cover.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+12

I’m hoping for some thunder or something today. Ended up being nothing a couple days ago when they said there was a chance of t-storms.