May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Front Ranger]

It might be underdone as well. This is one of the more impressive upper level jet extensions below 45N during the month of May in the last 20 years.

I don't know about that, but I know that the high latitude blocking remains impressive and is definitely playing a role. See also: current weather on east coast.

[Phil]

I don't know about that, but I know that the high latitude blocking remains impressive and is definitely playing a role. See also: current weather on east coast.

Yeah, but the high latitude blocking teleconnects directly to the equatorward-shifted jet/z-cell structure. They’re not separately-occurring.

 

Which is the opposite of what happened last May (strong vortex, expanded z-cells, poleward jet, and blowtorch across the US, centered over the 4-Corners region).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh boy...remember when some of us watched his show as kids?

 

https://twitter.com/FlyByKnite/status/1127820653061476352

[Phil]

Unfortunately, I suspect the passage of time will be what inevitably puts the nail in the AGW alarmist coffin (and by “time”, we’re talking multiple decades).

 

And time passed is time wasted. We should be playing the long game, developing adaptation strategies based on various past climate changes derived from proxy records (as they tend to be repetitive/multi-modal), along with globally-integrated investments in sustainable energy technologies like nuclear (Thorium has potential) along with other renewable sources to replace fossil fuels. Also, long term population management is a must, to prevent widespread famine when the inevitable occurs (whether it be many decades, centuries, or millennia from now).

[TacomaWaWx]

Only up to 62 degrees so far today. Wonder when we will hit 80 degrees next.

[Jesse]

Only up to 62 degrees so far today. Wonder when we will hit 80 degrees next.

hopefully soon we need the rain

[Timmy Supercell]

Oh boy...remember when some of us watched his show as kids?

 

https://twitter.com/FlyByKnite/status/1127820653061476352

 

Yeah when I was in elementary school, we looked at this every year.

[ShawniganLake]

Unfortunately, I suspect the passage of time will be what inevitably puts the nail in the AGW alarmist coffin (and by “time”, we’re talking multiple decades).

 

And time passed is time wasted. We should be playing the long game, developing adaptation strategies based on various past climate changes derived from proxy records (as they tend to be repetitive/multi-modal), along with globally-integrated investments in sustainable energy technologies like nuclear (Thorium has potential) along with other renewable sources to replace fossil fuels. Also, long term population management is a must, to prevent widespread famine when the inevitable occurs (whether it be many decades, centuries, or millennia from now).

Population management! Good luck with that.

[Farmboy]

With any luck we'll have the shitiest Memorial day on record and everyone will have to cancel their plans...

[Jesse]

Population management! Good luck with that.

Global population is already expected to start to plateau by mid-century, mainly due to declining birth rates in developed countries.

[ShawniganLake]

Global population is already expected to start to plateau by mid-century, mainly due to declining birth rates in developed countries.

That’s a good thing I guess. I was just thinking how well some people would respond if they were told they were only allowed 3 kids. People don’t even like to be told how many automatic weapons they can own. I don’t think population control would go over too well with them.

[Jesse]

That’s a good thing I guess. I was just thinking how well some people would respond if they were told they were only allowed 3 kids. People don’t even like to be told how many automatic weapons they can own. I don’t think population control would go over too well with them.

It’s a good thing people can’t control how many sunny days they have. I think we’d all be long dead by now.

[Geos]

Little more normal today. High/low of 64/47.

[TacomaWaWx]

64 for a high here as well.

[antipex]

I'm really looking forward to some rain tomorrow to settle all the pollen. It's been a rough allergy season.

[Phil]

That’s a good thing I guess. I was just thinking how well some people would respond if they were told they were only allowed 3 kids. People don’t even like to be told how many automatic weapons they can own. I don’t think population control would go over too well with them.

I don’t like the policy either. Not saying it should implemented like that, either. But if population growth doesn’t slow as expected, decisions will have to be made at some point.

[Farmboy]

I don’t like the policy either. Not saying it should implemented like that, either. But if population growth doesn’t slow as expected, decisions will have to be made at some point.

Decisions will have to be made at some point? You say that so non-chalantly as if it's just 'business as usual' for whatever governing authority exists at the time to say who lives and who dies. How do you think that would play out, exactly? My guess is it probably won't end well..

[Front Ranger]

Decisions will have to be made at some point? You say that so non-chalantly as if it's just 'business as usual' for whatever governing authority exists at the time to say who lives and who dies. How do you think that would play out, exactly? My guess is it probably won't end well..

 

Works great for China!

[Jesse]

Works great for China!

I’d hate to imagine what their population would be like right now if they hadn’t had that policy...

[Front Ranger]

I’d hate to imagine what their population would be like right now if they hadn’t had that policy...

 

Probably not wildly different. As they advanced economically in the 1960s and 1970s, their birth rate was already plummeting (just like other first and second world countries) before they enacted the one-child policy in 1980. And it has continued to decline over the period the policy has been in effect, as it likely would have anyway.

[Front Ranger]

Tim isn't talking about it, but models have trended wetter for western WA over the past couple of days.

 

Latest GFS now shows .50"+ for King County by Friday morning.

[TT-SEA]

Tim isn't talking about it, but models have trended wetter for western WA over the past couple of days.

 

Latest GFS now shows .50"+ for King County by Friday morning.

Cool beans. I wants lots of rain and well timed breaks. Did I mention that?

[Jesse]

Probably not wildly different. As they advanced economically in the 1960s and 1970s, their birth rate was already plummeting (just like other first and second world countries) before they enacted the one-child policy in 1980. And it has continued to decline over the period the policy has been in effect, as it likely would have anyway.

They really should have consulted you first

[Front Ranger]

Cool beans. I wants lots of rain and well timed breaks. Did I mention that?

 

Doesn't look like much in the way of sunshine for your breaks, though.

[TacomaWaWx]

Down to 57 degrees now. It’ll be good to finally have some rain tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

They really should have consulted you first

 

Thanks, but I wasn't around.

 

Anyhow, it's not about me, it's about the facts. The best way to combat overpopulation is by combating poverty.

 

Or maybe I'm wrong...maybe letting the government regulate family choices is best.

[Jesse]

Thanks, but I wasn't around.

 

Anyhow, it's not about me, it's about the facts. The best way to combat overpopulation is by combating poverty.

 

Or maybe I'm wrong...maybe letting the government regulate family choices is best.

With you, it’s always about you.

 

I agree, for the record. Should be interesting to see you try to create another argument out of that.

[Front Ranger]

They really should have consulted you first

 

 

With you, it’s always about you.

 

I agree, for the record. Should be interesting to see you try to create another argument out of that.

 

I didn't make it about me, that was you. 

 

Glad you are not fully onboard with the policies of the People's Republic.

[Jesse]

I didn't make it about me, that was you.

 

Glad you are not fully onboard with the policies of the People's Republic.

Yes, I was poking fun at the fact that it’s always about you in your mind. That was the point of the joke...

 

But yeah, the correlation between developed countries and stabilizing population was mentioned early in the discussion. Not sure if China is a great example of either.

[ShawniganLake]

0z looked like a lot of pretty average May weather. Not exactly a soaker.

[Jesse]

0z looked like a lot of pretty average May weather. Not exactly a soaker.

Short to mid range has trended wetter for many areas. Maybe not the Caribou.

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=25uLhe4gl8Q

[Front Ranger]

Yes, I was poking fun at the fact that it’s always about you in your mind. That was the point of the joke...

 

But yeah, the correlation between developed countries and stabilizing population was mentioned early in the discussion. Not sure if China is a great example of either.

 

 

China's population certainly hadn't stabilized, but birth rate was trending down (and has continued to trend down) when the one-child policy was enacted. They were a semi-developed country then and are fairly developed now, so it fits the general trend that the further away you get from being a third world country, the lower the birth rate.

 

Perhaps the greatest socio-effect of the one child policy is that it has lead to a male to female ratio of 117 to 100. As you can imagine, this has created some social issues.

[Jesse]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=25uLhe4gl8Q

Baby makin’ music. It must have only been released as a single.

[Deweydog]

Baby makin’ music. It must have only been released as a single.

Babies that grow up to be horrendously dangerous drivers...

[ShawniganLake]

Short to mid range has trended wetter for many areas. Maybe not the Caribou.

Never even looked at the Cariboo. Two o’s no U. It was the driest run of the day for Pdx.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't look like much in the way of sunshine for your breaks, though.

 

 

Does not look too bad up here.   

 

Here are high temps on Wednesday and Thursday... probably has to be some sunshine for highs around 70.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF also shows some heavy rain rotating up here on Thursday night after a fairly warm day.    Good timing.     I can hear the rain pounding on the roof already.   

 

[TT-SEA]

And Saturday still looks decent... that would be nice.      But looks like Sunday is wetter on this run than the previous run up here.   

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2019051400/conus2/ecmwf_t2max_conus2_21.png

[Jesse]

Never even looked at the Cariboo. Two o’s no U. It was the driest run of the day for Pdx.

I caun’t keep up.

 

I will be starting to get pretty interested in what the weather will be doing in Europe pretty soon here. We are leaving for Germany in six days.