May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[ShawniganLake]

I caun’t keep up.

 

I will be starting to get pretty interested in what the weather will be doing in Europe pretty soon here. We are leaving for Germany in six days.

I think it has been chilly. People I know were heading to Denmark and apparently they had a rare late season snow recently

[TT-SEA]

I think it has been chilly. People I know were heading to Denmark and apparently they had a rare late season snow recently

 

Forecast says 77 with rain in Berlin on Sunday and Monday.   That is pretty warm... maybe humid too. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 00Z ECMWF ends the jet extension by next week. 

 

[Jesse]

I think it has been chilly. People I know were heading to Denmark and apparently they had a rare late season snow recently

Yes, I’ve been tracking the weather in some of the locations we will be staying near the Alps and they have been having low snow levels and hard freezes the last few weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy this morning. 48F and feels like rain is almost here.

[Farmboy]

Looks like the 00Z ECMWF ends the jet extension by next week. 

 

Thank God. Next week can't come soon enough. I actually have snow in the forecast for several nights here. This is just absolutely abominable weather on the way... Highs may not punch through 45° on Friday... Gross.

[Kayla]

Hmmm, this could cause some problems.

 

[Kayla]

This is honestly so great to see up and down the Western US.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/sww9og.png

[Farmboy]

This is honestly so great to see up and down the Western US.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/sww9og.png

It's great for drought stressed areas and the upcoming fire season, yes. But sucks for outdoor farmer's markets' opening weekends...

[TT-SEA]

This is honestly so great to see up and down the Western US.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/sww9og.png

 

 

That band of heavy rain that rotates up through here on Thursday night resulted in a big change for my area on this map from previous runs.   It shows about 2-3 inches of rain during the night on Thursday... and I suspect there might be convection with that as well. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Thank God. Next week can't come soon enough. I actually have snow in the forecast for several nights here. This is just absolutely abominable weather on the way... Highs may not punch through 45° on Friday... Gross.

haha I’m sorry but you live at 5k elevation in Idaho you should move somewhere with lower elevation and lower precipitation chances. You live in the wrong place for your preferred weather.

[TacomaWaWx]

That band of heavy rain that rotates up through here on Thursday night resulted in a big change for my area on this map from previous runs. It shows about 2-3 inches of rain during the night on Thursday... and I suspect there might be convection with that as well.

I’ve been looking at that, looks more interesting than any other rain going on this week. Dry streak has finally ended this morning.

[Omegaraptor]

I’ve been looking at that, looks more interesting than any other rain going on this week. Dry streak has finally ended this morning.

Can you check if any of that goes into the Portland area? I don’t have access to detailed ECMWF maps.

 

Dry streak has ended here as well.

[Farmboy]

haha I’m sorry but you live at 5k elevation in Idaho you should move somewhere with lower elevation and lower precipitation chances. You live in the wrong place for your preferred weather.

Well since I signed a contract to be here thru Labor day weekend, I'm stuck here for now..

[MossMan]

Wet deck.

[Phil]

Never even looked at the Cariboo. Two o’s no U. It was the driest run of the day for Pdx.

I can tell you secretly want a dry summer loaded with wildfires.

 

Prepare to be disappointed.

[Phil]

Looks like the 00Z ECMWF ends the jet extension by next week.

 

Yeah, begins retracting next week. But still a troughy pattern overall with ULL action more likely (and favored climatologically as the intraseasonal tropical forcing propagates towards the IO again).

 

But at least it will allow for breaks in the action once that transition happens. Less “feast or famine” stuff that lasts several weeks at a time. Instead it will be higher frequency variability.

[Phil]

Thank God. Next week can't come soon enough. I actually have snow in the forecast for several nights here. This is just absolutely abominable weather on the way... Highs may not punch through 45° on Friday... Gross.

[Phil]

Good freaking lord.

 

The cool pattern hasn’t even begun yet and the forum heat misers are already b*tching and moaning as if Mother Nature has betrayed them. Babies.

[Deweydog]

Good freaking lord.

 

The cool pattern hasn’t even begun yet and the forum heat misers are already b*tching and moaning as if Mother Nature has betrayed them. Babies.

[TT-SEA]

Good freaking lord.

 

The cool pattern hasn’t even begun yet and the forum heat misers are already b*tching and moaning as if Mother Nature has betrayed them. Babies.

Don't lump me in... a cool and wet period is inevitable when it does not rain here for the first 2 weeks of May.

[Front Ranger]

Don't lump me in... a cool and wet period is inevitable when it does not rain here for the first 2 weeks of May.

3 week dry period for most places.

[TT-SEA]

3 week dry period for most places.

 

 

Indeed.

[Omegaraptor]

But at least it will allow for breaks in the action once that transition happens. Less “feast or famine” stuff that lasts several weeks at a time. Instead it will be higher frequency variability.

The important news, straight from Phil. YES! This streakiness was ridiculous.

[Omegaraptor]

Good freaking lord.

The cool pattern hasn’t even begun yet and the forum heat misers are already b*tching and moaning as if Mother Nature has betrayed them. Babies.

100 in Phoenix tomorrow...

[Jesse]

Defend ur buddiez

[Deweydog]

Defend ur buddiez

Everyone here is my buddy. Join us! It’s okay to not be angry!

[Phil]

Don't lump me in... a cool and wet period is inevitable when it does not rain here for the first 2 weeks of May.

Well I wasn’t referring to you, so request granted.

[Phil]

Man, there’s likely to be a huge severe weather outbreak across the Plains this weekend. Big daddy stuff. The new CIPS analog package is full of the super nasty years, like 2011 and 1995.

 

Certainly looks more noteworthy than the “seasonably-favorable” narrative our Colorado native concocted.

[Jesse]

Everyone here is my buddy. Join us! It’s okay to not be angry!

Sure is nice to see some rain this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

I can tell you secretly want a dry summer loaded with wildfires.

 

Prepare to be disappointed.

It’s already happening.

 

Just looking at the GFS for southern Vancouver Island, if the last couple runs verified, this May could end up drier than last year. Even though the nature of this cool light showery pattern will be more beneficial for getting some moisture in the ground.

 

Southern Okanagan yesterday.

 

[Jesse]

It’s already happening.

 

Just looking at the GFS for southern Vancouver Island, if the last couple runs verified, this May could end up drier than last year. Even though the nature of this cool light showery pattern will be more beneficial for getting some moisture in the ground.

Really? How much rain did they get last May, and what sort of pattern brought it aside from a cool and showery one.

[Farmboy]

Good freaking lord.

The cool pattern hasn’t even begun yet and the forum heat misers are already b*tching and moaning as if Mother Nature has betrayed them. Babies.

And the rain-misers are ready to pounce on and tear to pieces any model that shows the glorious upcoming two week period ending. I guess it's just too bad we can't have drizzly 50° days all summer.

[Omegaraptor]

And the rain-misers are ready to pounce on and tear to pieces any model that shows the upcoming two week period ending. I guess it's just too bad we can't have drizzly 50° days all summer.

Portland’s forecast doesn’t show a single day below 60°F.

 

Coldest high in Portland history in July is 61°F.

 

Winter ended a long time ago.

[Phil]

Really? How much rain did they get last May, and what sort of pattern brought it aside from a cool and showery one.

Satellite rainfall estimates from May 2018 across BC, juxtaposed on the model precipitation forecasts, suggest that is physically impossible.

 

Just like forest fires raging under snowpack all winter is physically impossible. Even in BC.

[Farmboy]

Portland’s forecast doesn’t show a single day below 60°F.

Coldest high in Portland history in July is 61°F.

Winter ended a long time ago.

Well I'm not in PDX. I could care less what happens there .

[Jesse]

Well I'm not in PDX. I could care less what happens there .

And we’re not in Idaho.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/

[Farmboy]

And we’re not in Idaho.http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/

Well, if you could just keep your pesky troughs from crossing statelines, I think we could come to some sort of understanding!

[Phil]

It’s already happening.

 

Just looking at the GFS for southern Vancouver Island, if the last couple runs verified, this May could end up drier than last year. Even though the nature of this cool light showery pattern will be more beneficial for getting some moisture in the ground.

 

Southern Okanagan yesterday.

 

FEEDA89D-0086-4785-85C8-366A9078DF36.jpeg

Blowing the load early? With the high frequency variability inter-mixed and the healthy wave structure for moisture draw as a slowly developing background state..it looks like a year with much less smoke out there (if not due to the increased moisture, the more onshore component to the streamflow will help too).

 

There should be multiple opportunities for rainfall this summer up there. Another window for troughiness and zonal flow appears to favored during July (after a dry stretch during mid/late June) with this second one having a more northern focus than the current one due to seasonality and ITCZ/z-cell climo specific to this QBO/RW structure.

[ShawniganLake]

Really? How much rain did they get last May, and what sort of pattern brought it aside from a cool and showery one.

Shawnigan Lake had 0.56” of rain last May. Most of which fell in a couple hours of heavy convective showers in NW flow, with a departing trough and ridge moving in. Much of that rainfall rain off quickly and the following days were breezy and in the 80s, so it didn’t do much for soil moisture.