May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Phil]

I think these kind of responses are literally what he needs to stay alive. That and the blood of newborns.

I could believe the latter.

[TT-SEA]

That’s one heck of a trough on the 12z GFS. The 500mb height anomaly is almost 2SDs below normal just off the coast.

 

...And Tim cares more about 12hrs of sunshine and nothingness 5+ days away. Lololol.

 

 

Its more than 12 hours.   There will be nice weather on Wednesday and Thursday and maybe at times from Friday - Sunday.  

 

Nature will be watering everything for us... and there will be a chance to enjoy nice weather in between.    Good combination.   Definitely won't be just a rainy and dreary week by any means.  

[Jesse]

Its more than 12 hours. There will be nice weather on Wednesday and Thursday and maybe at times from Friday - Sunday.

 

Nature will be watering everything for us... and there will be a chance to enjoy nice weather in between. Good combination. Definitely won't be just a rainy and dreary week by any means.

butt my fone show the cloud and rain picture every day tho

[TT-SEA]

I think these kind of responses are literally what he needs to stay alive. That and the blood of newborns.

 

 

What is so interesting about periodic rain bands?    I will enjoy the rain... and its very much needed... but I care way more about tracking the nice weather periods.   The rain is a given now.   

[Phil]

Its more than 12 hours. There will be nice weather on Wednesday and Thursday and maybe at times from Friday - Sunday.

 

Nature will be watering everything for us... and there will be a chance to enjoy nice weather in between. Good combination. Definitely won't be just a rainy and dreary week by any means.

I’m just messing with you, man.

 

But honestly, based on your description, this sounds like the “dream pattern” of heavy rains mixed with sunshine that you have talked about on here.

 

If so, then you should be ecstatic.

[TT-SEA]

butt my fone show the cloud and rain picture every day tho

 

 

Yeah... that is the problem with the phone apps.    My son asked this morning if it was really going to be raining every day for the next week without stopping.    That is not the case in this situation.

[Jesse]

What is so interesting about periodic rain bands? I will enjoy the rain... and its very much needed... but I care way more about tracking the nice weather periods. The rain is a given now.

I personally find them way more interesting than the endless sun that has been the warm season default the last several years. My opinion, which believe it or not is just as valid as yours. Now let’s get into a pages long debate about the respective merits of each and FINALLY hash this one out for good.

[TT-SEA]

I’m just messing with you, man.

 

But honestly, based on your description, this sounds like the “dream pattern” of heavy rains mixed with sunshine that you have talked about on here.

 

If so, then you should be ecstatic.

 

 

Pretty happy... definitely need the rain at this point.  But don't want it to just be gloomy and raining non-stop.

 

I don't think there will be much "heavy" rain up there this week.   The brunt of the action is way south of us.   Just bands of light to moderate rain at times.   Not very exciting.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we will be getting quite a bit more rain over the next couple of weeks than places further north in Washington. 

[TT-SEA]

I personally find them way more interesting than the endless sun that has been the warm season default the last several years. My opinion, which believe it or not is just as valid as yours. Now let’s get into a pages long debate about the respective merits of each and FINALLY hash this one out for good.

 

 

I did not tell you what to like or not like.

 

I enjoy the nice periods way more when there is rain in between.    Its a nice combo.

[Phil]

The jet looks really ‘roided up over the Pacific right now. Just screaming across the entire basin east of the dateline with lots of lightning strikes in there too.

 

Sick.

 

(But sunny, stagnant nothingness is more interesting).

[TT-SEA]

The jet looks really ‘roided up over the Pacific right now. Just screaming across the entire basin east of the dateline with lots of lightning strikes in there too.

 

Sick.

 

(But sunny, stagnant nothingness is more interesting).

It won't be stagnant at all.

 

And the focus of the jet is into CA. I can appreciate the overall pattern and still be happy about the nice periods here.

[ShawniganLake]

So__much__energy put into analyzing 12 hours of clown range warmth sandwiched between days of storminess.

 

I don’t get it. The storminess is more interesting than a sunny, stagnant day of nothingness. What the fook is wrong with you, Tim?

Stormy is a pretty generous description of the weather upcoming this week.

[Jesse]

The jet looks really ‘roided up over the Pacific right now. Just screaming across the entire basin east of the dateline with lots of lightning strikes in there too.

 

Sick.

 

(But sunny, stagnant nothingness is more interesting).

Just like what you like and don’t define everything by his opinion. It’s what he feeds off of. Very Trump like.

[TT-SEA]

Just like what you like and don’t define everything by his opinion. It’s what he feeds off of. Very Trump like.

 

 

I actually find it annoying that he focuses on my opinion so much.     Even when its raining in his backyard... he is thinking about me.   

[Front Ranger]

Looking more and more like Phil made a good call about the big JET EXTENSION for the west coast, it's just going further south than anticipated.

 

Highly unusual situation for CA.

[TT-SEA]

Looking more and more like Phil made a good call about the big JET EXTENSION for the west coast, it's just going further south than anticipated.

 

Highly unusual situation for CA.

 

 

Phil called it very well... and way in advance.  

 

And its crazy for the jet to pound CA in May.    I think Phil was really hoping it would focus on western WA though.  

[Jesse]

Looking more and more like Phil made a good call about the big JET EXTENSION for the west coast, it's just going further south than anticipated.

 

Highly unusual situation for CA.

I’m thinking things could end up a hair or two north than currently progged. Which would be good for the areas that need rain the most.

[TacomaWaWx]

Stormy is a pretty generous description of the weather upcoming this week.

Yeah looks like a snooze fest of light rain on and off with the bulk of the precipitation headed into Oregon and California. Doesn’t look extremely exciting unless we get some convective events in between. We need the rain though. Should be a good mix of nice weather and rainy days. I think everyone can appreciate that.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m thinking things could end up a hair or two north than currently progged. Which would be good for the areas that need rain the most.

Yeah it’d be nice if the jet was pointed into WA/OR California is already doing quite well with rainfall. Maybe it’ll trend that way coming up.

[Cloud]

Ok, I was curious b/c I know the area very well and am on the hill directly to your WSW

Haha. 

 

I figured you might know the area well if you asked about it. I think the KOMO reference I used is at the highest point of Beacon Hill, but Beacon Hill running N/S is a long one. 

I think the south end of the area is anywhere between 160-240'

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully at least one heavy rain event reaches Washington County. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen.

[Phil]

Yeah it’d be nice if the jet was pointed into WA/OR California is already doing quite well with rainfall. Maybe it’ll trend that way coming up.

A few years ago who would have thought we’d be using framing like this? What a remarkable turnaround for them.

[Phil]

Phil called it very well... and way in advance.

 

And its crazy for the jet to pound CA in May. I think Phil was really hoping it would focus on western WA though.

I’m still trying to mentally force it towards North Bend.

[TT-SEA]

I’m still trying to mentally force it towards North Bend.

 

 

I have no doubt about that... its your main focus on here.  

[Omegaraptor]

Maybe if we’re lucky, Washington County might get to above average precipitation for the month.

[ShawniganLake]

I’m heading up to the cariboo for the long weekend. Looks like it might be a sunbreaks and showers type of weekend up there too. Which is very typical for this time of year, as we are approaching the “rainy season” there.

[Front Ranger]

Looking more and more like Phil made a good call about the big JET EXTENSION for the west coast, it's just going further south than anticipated.

 

Highly unusual situation for CA.

 

Actually, looking into this more maybe it's not actually that unusual. Redding averages over 2" of rain in May, and even Sacramento averages .50". 

 

The next week may get them past those averages, we'll see.

[Front Ranger]

I’m thinking things could end up a hair or two north than currently progged. Which would be good for the areas that need rain the most.

 

That would be WA at this point...would definitely need a few notches north of current progs.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

This next pattern definitely looks rather showery/cloudy, and a lot of this looks to affect K-Falls even.

 

Just got off the train last night so I'm back in Klamath now.

[Phil]

Actually, looking into this more maybe it's not actually that unusual. Redding averages over 2" of rain in May, and even Sacramento averages .50".

 

The next week may get them past those averages, we'll see.

The “jackpot” areas (whoever ends up getting it) should be much, much higher than 2”. The dynamics and potential for moisture advection are very impressive.

[TacomaWaWx]

A few years ago who would have thought we’d be using framing like this? What a remarkable turnaround for them.

yeah who would have thought that California would be the rain king and Washington would be in need usually the other way around. Especially this late in the season.

[Front Ranger]

The “jackpot” areas (whoever ends up getting it) should be much, much higher than 2”. The dynamics and potential for moisture advection are very impressive.

 

The jackpot areas will be higher elevation spots that average well over 2".

 

GFS is saying some places below 1000' in NorCal have a shot at 2-3", but that may be overdone.

[Omegaraptor]

Actually, looking into this more maybe it's not actually that unusual. Redding averages over 2" of rain in May, and even Sacramento averages .50".

 

The next week may get them past those averages, we'll see.

The way rain works in Redding is different from the way it works in Portland and Seattle.

 

Rain in Portland/Seattle is mostly drizzle that falls over many days and takes many days to amount to anything. Downpours are the exception, rather than the rule. This is one of the main reasons why I think Portland isn’t rainy enough for my liking.

 

Redding is very feast or famine. Either it gets downpours, or it gets nothing. When the former happens, the month will finish well above normal. Very wet Mays relative to the average are very possible in Redding, and have happened before.

 

I don’t know why there’s such a difference, but it is the way it is.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 54 degrees at 11:30am. Cloudier today than yesterday. Looks like this is the last day of the dry streak. Statistically this is apparently the driest start to May in 73 years at Seattle. (Not that it really matters now with the incoming pattern). There’s only been one other time when the 1st 12 days were completely dry which was 1946. That year there was no rainfall from the 1st-24th of the month.

[The Swamp]

Looking more and more like Phil made a good call about the big JET EXTENSION for the west coast, it's just going further south than anticipated.

 

Highly unusual situation for CA.

A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. The guy is lame.

[Jesse]

A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. The guy is lame.

what is ur phone saying

[Phil]

The jackpot areas will be higher elevation spots that average well over 2".

 

GFS is saying some places below 1000' in NorCal have a shot at 2-3", but that may be overdone.

It might be underdone as well. This is one of the more impressive upper level jet extensions below 45N during the month of May in the last 20 years.

[Phil]

A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. The guy is lame.

So lame.

[Front Ranger]

The way rain works in Redding is different from the way it works in Portland and Seattle.

 

Rain in Portland/Seattle is mostly drizzle that falls over many days and takes many days to amount to anything. Downpours are the exception, rather than the rule. This is one of the main reasons why I think Portland isn’t rainy enough for my liking.

 

Redding is very feast or famine. Either it gets downpours, or it gets nothing. When the former happens, the month will finish well above normal. Very wet Mays relative to the average are very possible in Redding, and have happened before.

 

I don’t know why there’s such a difference, but it is the way it is.

Yeah, it's definitely hit or miss there. No May since 2011 has seen more than 1" of rain, yet they've seen several with 5"+ in the past.