May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Sounds like the iPhone forecast blues. In reality there will be lots of breaks. And we really need whatever rain we end up getting.

Yeah we do. It’s not like going to be raining 24/7 like November the next 10 days looks showery overall with a couple decent rains.

[Jesse]

Nice day!

But it clouded and drizzled this morning. Not possible.

[Jbolin]

South Beacon Hill, if you know where Van Asselt Elementary School is. It's pretty much directly east of Boeing Field.

 

My exact elevation is approximately ~220' off of the Swift Ave. Exit (161). 

 

I reference my location off of this: https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/whats-my-elevation-12-20-2015

Ok, I was curious b/c I know the area very well and am on the hill directly to your WSW

[FroYoBro]

BLAZERS

[Omegaraptor]

Not quite PNW, but close enough, I guess:

 

18z GFS looks impressively cold for NorCal. Past few models have been similar, but not quite as cold as the 18z. (12z still showed a couple of sub-60 highs for Redding, though.)

 

If this verifies, it looks like the northern part of the Central Valley is in for a whopper of a May cold stretch that has not been seen since 2011. Particularly Redding / Red Bluff area.

 

I know I've been talking a lot about that area recently, but it's worth mentioning. Subsequent posts will probably be in the California / SW thread.

[Jesse]

BLAZERS

Your official summer forecast?

[Geos]

Took a break for awhile, but back now. Been kind of busy also in the last month.

Although the warmth and sun is nice, it is drying things out. Looking forward to more days with showers and clouds. We kind of do need it before the real dry months of summer. 

 

86* was about as hot as it got up here on Friday. 

[ShawniganLake]

BLAZERS

Surprised to see with Lillard only scoring 13. Quite the buzzer beater to win game 7 in the raptors series

[TacomaWaWx]

Made it to 66 degrees here today. Down to 59 now. Today is day 15 of our dry streak here. Looks like it’ll end on Tuesday.

[Jesse]

Took ALL THE WAY until 2pm for PDX to blow past their average high for the date this afternoon.

 

#plzwarmupagainsoon

[Geos]

Was up around the Burlington/Samish Island area today. That area I know was socked in with clouds and mid 50s through 2:30pm. Got down to Marysville before the sun started breaking out. Made it to 65 here. No more 70s in the foreseeable forecast. 

[Omegaraptor]

Took ALL THE WAY until 2pm for PDX to blow past their average high for the date this afternoon.

#plzwarmupagainsoon

Hope we can get a summer that’s 95+ every single day from June 1 to September 30.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not quite PNW, but close enough, I guess:

 

18z GFS looks impressively cold for NorCal. Past few models have been similar, but not quite as cold as the 18z. (12z still showed a couple of sub-60 highs for Redding, though.)

 

If this verifies, it looks like the northern part of the Central Valley is in for a whopper of a May cold stretch that has not been seen since 2011. Particularly Redding / Red Bluff area.

 

I know I've been talking a lot about that area recently, but it's worth mentioning. Subsequent posts will probably be in the California / SW thread.

Don't think we have any members from Northern California here. However, it has been quite a crazy May so far, even for Southern California.

[Deweydog]

Funny Sunday!

[Phil]

2019 (to date) has been wet almost everywhere...

 

...Except the PNW.

 

Let’s see how much we can chip away at this through the rest of the year.

 

[TT-SEA]

So I don’t want to see a single post complaining about rainfall going forward. Y’all have been the place in the country relative to average for the first 4.5 months of the year. That was bound to even out eventually.

 

If it works that way... then we are still balancing out the wettest 4 years in history (2014-17).    I have said many times that we are bound to even that out with some dry years.

 

SEA was 31.15 inches above normal for those 4 years and 3.08 inches below normal last year... so we still have some balancing yet to do.  

 

 

 

But I know I am totally wrong... and this logic only applies when you use it.    

 

Now proceed to mock me about rain and how I don't understand anything about climo here.  

[Jesse]

You can blab all day about SEA’s annual stats, but we are also obviously way overdue for a wetter than average dry season, regionally.

 

Being due for that and being technically due for a drier than average year at a single, cherrypicked station are not mutually exclusive.

[TT-SEA]

You can blab all day about SEA’s annual stats, but we are also obviously way overdue for a wetter than average dry season, regionally.

 

Being due for that and being technically due for a drier than average year at a single, cherrypicked station are not mutually exclusive.

 

 

There are many stations up here similar to SEA for the 2014-17 period.   We have a long way to go to balance that out... if that is how it works.    Which I have been told it does not.

 

Just pointing out the obvious double standard. 

[Jesse]

There are many stations up here similar to SEA for the 2014-17 period. We have a long way to go to balance that out... if that is how it works. Which I have been told it does not.

 

Just pointing out the obvious double standard.

Lots of double standards here.

[MossMan]

But it clouded and drizzled this morning. Not possible.

Was a lovely afternoon however!

[GHweatherChris]

Mother nature owes us nothing, she does not matter if things need balance, she doesn't care!!

[TT-SEA]

Was up around the Burlington/Samish Island area today. That area I know was socked in with clouds and mid 50s through 2:30pm. Got down to Marysville before the sun started breaking out. Made it to 65 here. No more 70s in the foreseeable forecast. 

 

 

Actually the 00Z ECMWF shows that Wednesday and Thursday should be around 70 in the Seattle area.

[TacomaWaWx]

Mother nature owes us nothing, she does not matter if things need balance, she doesn't care!!

exactly.

[TacomaWaWx]

Actually the 00Z ECMWF shows that Wednesday and Thursday should be around 70 in the Seattle area.

won’t be any 80s for awhile though.

[TT-SEA]

won’t be any 80s for awhile though.

 

Sort of obvious... its May.    

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF actually looks quite pleasant every afternoon through Friday at least.   Its certainly not going to be a cold and dreary week.

 

Even Tuesday afternoon is looking better as the rain moves through a little faster in the morning.   

[TT-SEA]

Saturday still looks a little more showery and cool during the day... highs in the low 60s with showers for everyone except Whatcom and Skagit Counties.   

 

Randy might score a nice Saturday... while everyone else has some rain.      

[Omegaraptor]

2019 (to date) has been wet almost everywhere...

...Except the PNW.

Let’s see how much we can chip away at this through the rest of the year.

Interesting that parts of the South have also been dry. I heard a lot about flooding in Texas and Louisiana, but never realized that parts of Alabama/Georgia/SC/Florida were actually up to 8” drier than normal.

 

Of course, NorCal is insane. It’s incredible how much rain Redding has been getting. That area tends to be feast or famine for precipitation, and this year it’s been a massive feast.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday also looks dry and pleasant during the day for most of western WA.

 

That is 6 of the next 7 days with decent weather in the afternoon up here per the 00Z ECMWF. Not too bad considering the overall troughy pattern. CA takes the brunt of the action.

 

Looks like a pattern that brings some decent rain but with plenty of breaks and periods of nice weather. Maybe something for everyone.

[Farmboy]

Interesting that parts of the South have also been dry. I heard a lot about flooding in Texas and Louisiana, but never realized that parts of Alabama/Georgia/SC/Florida were actually up to 8” drier than normal.

Of course, NorCal is insane. It’s incredible how much rain Redding has been getting. That area tends to be feast or famine for precipitation, and this year it’s been a massive feast.

A year too late. I was dumbfounded at the scope of the destruction when I drove thru there last September. Sad...

[TT-SEA]

Of course, NorCal is insane. It’s incredible how much rain Redding has been getting. That area tends to be feast or famine for precipitation, and this year it’s been a massive feast.

 

And the beat goes on... this is in the 10-day anomaly map from the 00Z ECMWF:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

49 and cloudy here this morning. Just looking at the models and reading cliff masses blog on the upcoming pattern, amazing how wet it’s been in California and how it’s entering another significant wet period in the 2nd half of May. Up here it doesn’t look quite that crazy though.

[Omegaraptor]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-wet-period-ahead-for-us-west-coast.html?m=1

 

Here’s the new Cliff Mass article, which also touches on the massive rainfall in NorCal and gives insight to what it means for fire season in the PNW and CA.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Absolutely incredible rain totals for mid-late May, especially for NorCal.

[Phil]

Interesting that parts of the South have also been dry. I heard a lot about flooding in Texas and Louisiana, but never realized that parts of Alabama/Georgia/SC/Florida were actually up to 8” drier than normal.

 

Of course, NorCal is insane. It’s incredible how much rain Redding has been getting. That area tends to be feast or famine for precipitation, and this year it’s been a massive feast.

The fact the drought has been essentially wiped out across the SW US is a great sign IMO. Suggests we’re not in an unbroken multi-decade drought or a megadrought regime.

 

FWIW..it could have been MUCH worse. The megadroughts during the mid/late Holocene (towards the end of the thermal maximum) were horrific. The last few hundred years have been some of the wettest in many millennia, ironically. We don’t realize how bad these things get.

 

[TT-SEA]

All 3 models so far this morning show us sneaking in a really nice Saturday in the middle of a very troughy set up for the West Coast.    The 00Z ECMWF did not show this though.... that was the one day that was pretty wet in the afternoon over the next week.

 

Here is the 12Z GFS for Saturday... which is similar to the FV3-GFS and the GEM.

 

 

 

[Phil]

So__much__energy put into analyzing 12 hours of clown range warmth sandwiched between days of storminess.

 

I don’t get it. The storminess is more interesting than a sunny, stagnant day of nothingness. What the fook is wrong with you, Tim?

[Phil]

That’s one heck of a trough on the 12z GFS. The 500mb height anomaly is almost 2SDs below normal just off the coast.

 

...And Tim cares more about 12hrs of sunshine and nothingness 5+ days away. Lololol.

[TT-SEA]

So__much__energy put into analyzing 12 hours of clown range warmth sandwiched between days of storminess.

 

I don’t get it. The storminess is more interesting than a sunny, stagnant day of nothingness. What the fook is wrong with you, Tim?

 

There are actually lots of breaks in the action... on most days actually.    And I don't think 120 hours is clown range.   

 

I always look at the surface details for the next 5-7 days.    That is when you can start planning.   

 

There will be rain bands coming through at times this week... but it does not look really interesting.   Just periods of light to maybe moderate rain and that is very much needed... but not very exciting.   What does make me happy is well-timed breaks to get out and enjoy nice weather and refreshed landscape and do some yardwork and get some sun.  

[Jesse]

So__much__energy put into analyzing 12 hours of clown range warmth sandwiched between days of storminess.

 

I don’t get it. The storminess is more interesting than a sunny, stagnant day of nothingness. What the fook is wrong with you, Tim?

I think these kind of responses are literally what he needs to stay alive. That and the blood of newborns.