June 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Skies are darkening up quickly. Another terrible job by the models as none of them have this MCS hitting the TC. Not even the latest run of the HRRR. It’s losing some steam but we should get some rain at the very least.

I agree with ya, it seems each and every day the high rez models have done a terrible job over the past few days.  This is a classic set up for a long lived MCS and I'm looking forward to seeing these storms track all the way down here.  

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna miss most of the metro after all, but it got a lot closer than any model depicted. Tonight’s setup looks better locally.

[Niko]

Absolutely splendid outside right now w temps in the upper 60s (68F). Today will feature lower humidity and much more comfortable conditions. Readings should creep up in the upper 70s. Heat and humidity returns early next week w some isolated pm storms as well. They will be hit n miss.

[Money]

HRRR is so bad this morning..

[St Paul Storm]

Debris clouds moving out and the sun is starting to peak through at times. Still expecting peak heat indices around 105. Gonna get nasty if we get sun for a bit.

[Niko]

Our summer temps are welcomed to dry out and get the crops in but Europe is broiling right now, mostly without A/C.

Our cool is their heat, I think.

 

Madrid 104

Toulouse 104

Bern, Switz 99 - very rare

Berlin 99

Rome 97

Paris 93

Vienna 93.

 

Tourists are no doubt looking for cooler places to travel to.

Europe is baking indeed. Some places have received all time record low temps and all time record high temps. That trough in the eastern Atlantic is to blame for all of this heat. Allows Africa to enter in.

[St Paul Storm]

My wife is en route to France right now with her sister to watch the US women’s team in the World Cup. Looks like the worst of the heat is breaking just in time. No AC and temps in the low 110s would be a pretty bad experience.

[Andie]

I read where the North and west of France is getting some relief. No idea how far inland it goes.

Germany is an oven, however, getting the worst of it.

[Andie]

Great stuff Tom.

Andie, that's the camp I'm leaning to right now. My snow numbers were only paltry that season because they were replaced by a 3 day sleet storm and a catastrophic ice disaster in Jan '09. It has taken the trees a decade to recover. I can still see the damage in them if I remember where to look.

Nature almost has that "too perfect" look this year. It's almost eerie.

Perhaps nature was just winding up for the pitch this coming winter.

It will be interesting to read what you guys have to say this fall as things begin to gel.

[OKwx2k4]

Perhaps nature was just winding up for the pitch this coming winter.

It will be interesting to read what you guys have to say this fall as things begin to gel.

I'm looking forward to it. I'll be honest with you though, I'm actually starting to get genuinely nervous that, (and this is directly observation based) the south-central US stunner of a winter is coming. I remember the storms of the late 80's early 90s that could shut down the entire south for 3-4 days.

 

A precurser or "leader" cold blast may show up soon, and if that happens, the mid-August frost scenario for our farmers up North (possibly record-tying and devastating) looks like a legitimate reality.

 

I had mixed emotions about last winter leading in about how hard it was going to be in certain areas vs the excitement of knowing that a lot of folks from the KS border and even west/NW of OKC and Dallas and back to the north got to experience their first "real" winter in 9 years.

 

Same feeling this year, except I think this one will make last year, 2013 and 2008-09, 2009-10 look like child's play. Even 2014-2015's timeline here was maybe 8-10 weeks at most before the season flipped here so I know it was 3 weeks or more up North.

 

So, tentative raging anticipation coupled by a bit of apprehension and understanding that a real winter will be very hard here.

[OKwx2k4]

It will be interesting to see, also, what happens with tropical convection over the Pacific over the next 2 weeks to help chart a course for how we go from here.

[Iowawx]

I am starting to loose track about how many severe thunderstorms Cedar Rapids has missed in May and June. Yet again today, a really good storm complex is moving across WI and IL. Somehow those areas always get good storms. I don't know what it is that prevents any good storms from getting to Cedar Rapids.It also only seems to occur here, and not anywhere else. Have not seen a good storm so far this year. I am getting really tired of this.

 

We are also below normal for June rainfall. I am only at 3.12". The normal is 4.92". 

[Andie]

@Okwx

I am concerned as well as I'm a believer in cycles and 2008 was our last big shot of winter. Ten years....we're ripe for picking. Snow, extreme cold, damp and foggy.

The sun seemed to disappear in '08. I hated that part as the sun is so important to most Texan attitudes.

How heavy are the oaks in your area with acorns? Just asking as it often can indicate a hard winter.

 

We're forecast for high 80's-low 90's for 4th of July. 30% chance of rain.

Can't begin to tell you how odd that is. We usually see high 90's and dry.

So, it's par for this year - cooler.

[St Paul Storm]

About to get hit hard. No warnings at the moment though.

[Tom]

[james1976]

[Tom]

I'm coming down I90 right now heading into Chicago and got caught up in the storms. Wicked wind gusts!

Awesome!  They must be rocking your car sideways as the outflows are coming right out of the north.  I was just outside a few minutes ago when the gusty outflows hit and they are definitely the strongest wind gusts from any storm this season.  It looks like the eastern edge of the line is weakening and the western flank is strengthening out in N/C IL.

 

[Tom]

ORD just reported a 60mph wind gust and 60-70mph just west of there in Roselle, IL...lots of trees and power lines down...thankfully, not to bad over here except for a few branches falling off the tree.  As I type this, the winds are still rather gusty and howling.  Lovin' it!

[St Paul Storm]

So much for 93/73 as forecasted. It’s 69/65 after 2 rounds of storms.

[james1976]

ORD just reported a 60mph wind gust and 60-70mph just west of there in Roselle, IL...lots of trees and power lines down...thankfully, not to bad over here except for a few branches falling off the tree. As I type this, the winds are still rather gusty and howling. Lovin' it!

We just went by ORD. Mostly just rain now. Didn't see any damage but our car was rockin a bit! We saw a stop sign that was about to get blown away. Camper in front of us was getting tossed around a lot.

[james1976]

And just as I say that we came up to an area where the power lines are down. We're on N Milwaukee Ave.

[Hawkeye]

Big line of storms has blown up over se MN and is diving south into Iowa.  There's plenty of fuel over eastern Iowa.  I hope it can continue to dive south for several hours.

[OKwx2k4]

@Okwx

I am concerned as well as I'm a believer in cycles and 2008 was our last big shot of winter. Ten years....we're ripe for picking. Snow, extreme cold, damp and foggy.

The sun seemed to disappear in '08. I hated that part as the sun is so important to most Texan attitudes.

How heavy are the oaks in your area with acorns? Just asking as it often can indicate a hard winter.

 

We're forecast for high 80's-low 90's for 4th of July. 30% chance of rain.

Can't begin to tell you how odd that is. We usually see high 90's and dry.

So, it's par for this year - cooler.

The oaks are loaded and growing ridiculously fast.

Blackberries and wild cherries (the little black ones) are loaded. Peach trees are loaded.

 

The kicker here is walnut. Walnut trees have produced heavily in recent 3 years are dripping half-grown fruit.

 

Persimmons are actively dropping green fruit and that is one of the most uncommon things I've witnessed in a long time.

 

I'm going to start looking forward in earnest after the 4th rolls by. This fall (plus summer's remainder), off top of my head goes something like 1990, 1991, 2008, 2010, 1898, 1917.

[Andie]

That's impressive Okwx. May be quite the winter.

 

We're at a surprising low of 85*. 55% humidity.

Golfers are beside themselves this 4th of July.

 

[East Dubzz]

Some strong storms headed this way...

 

Will I get my first severe warned storm of the year on the last day of June?

[Hawkeye]

This line of storms isn't wasting any time, that's for sure.

[East Dubzz]

And there it is... first severe thunderstorm warning of the year.

[Money]

And there it is... first severe thunderstorm warning of the year.

70 mph winds and producing widespread wind damage

[East Dubzz]

70 mph winds and producing widespread wind damage

I shouldn’t be excited about that... but I am.

[Hawkeye]

The line is very strong from the Dubuque area into Wisconsin, but it's crapping out farther west.  It appears CR will just see some gusty wind and brief rain.

 

Dubuque is about to get rocked.

[Iowawx]

The line is very strong from the Dubuque area into Wisconsin, but it's crapping out farther west. It appears CR will just see some gusty wind and brief rain.

Yet another bust. Oh well.

[Iowawx]

I had hopes with the heat and humidity we had here today. Does not look exciting at all. There’s a really nice cell near Mason city moving southeast so maybe that could be something.

[East Dubzz]

Lots of thunder rolling in...

[Money]

Lots of thunder rolling in...

Tornado warning now

[Iowawx]

The winds just picked up here, but the storm is still about 30 miles away.

[Hawkeye]

Jeez, there is barely anything left of the line over here.  

[Hawkeye]

50 mph wind gusts just now

[East Dubzz]

Dubuque just had a gust of 76 mph, and I could not have been far off. There was basically zero visibility right in front of my window, and I actually started getting so spooked out that I took off for downstairs.

[BMT]

Some impressive wind!

[Iowawx]

Looks like the line is starting to intensify as it moves toward the Cedar Rapids area.