Phil Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Here are my thoughts going forward. - Much greater -AO/-NAO than last winter- North Pacific blocking regime we have seen this fall should continue to be dominant, though it will shift more over Western Canada at times, especially mid January on- eastern 1/3 of the country will be much colder Jan-Mar this winter- November should see cold centered over the central part of the country- Early December to early January is best window for major cold/snow events in PNW- Highly elevated chance of top tier cold across the entire US, due to persistent and strong high latitude blocking, weak jet- Precipitation is highly unpredictable, but the west coast should see extended dry periods punctuated by heavy rain/snow events and strong storms- First half of winter should tend more -PNA, second half more +PNA- This will be an anomalously snowy winter for many regions- Overall, it would not surprise me if 2019-20 is a top 5 coldest winter for the past 50+ years in the US- That being said, extreme swings in temperature will be common, especially for the middle of the country and southern sectionsInteresting. Will be interesting to watch this one unfold given the change to elements the background state relative to recent years. FWIW I largely agree, though I’m more bearish on December in the West this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Late January is still really, really due out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Late January is still really, really due out here.Cool it with the MLK stuff, dude. Not cool. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Cool it with the MLK stuff, dude. Not cool. Australia Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Here are my thoughts going forward. - Much greater -AO/-NAO than last winter- North Pacific blocking regime we have seen this fall should continue to be dominant, though it will shift more over Western Canada at times, especially mid January on- eastern 1/3 of the country will be much colder Jan-Mar this winter- November should see cold centered over the central part of the country- Early December to early January is best window for major cold/snow events in PNW- Highly elevated chance of top tier cold across the entire US, due to persistent and strong high latitude blocking, weak jet- Precipitation is highly unpredictable, but the west coast should see extended dry periods punctuated by heavy rain/snow events and strong storms- First half of winter should tend more -PNA, second half more +PNA- This will be an anomalously snowy winter for many regions- Overall, it would not surprise me if 2019-20 is a top 5 coldest winter for the past 50+ years in the US- That being said, extreme swings in temperature will be common, especially for the middle of the country and southern sections I agree with most of this. Good work! I think there is a somewhat realistic shot at this being a top 10% cold winter for the NW based on what we have been seeing and solar. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog. That would be a wetter year. My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86. I'm not a huge believer in considering solar. I think Pete Parsons at the Oregon Department of Agriculture has some good analogs, I would say I used somewhat similar methodology. Why are you choosing mostly Nino years? I think your forecast is extremely pessimistic and has little chance of verifying, but we'll see. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Was solar activity measured the same way back then as it is now? I have no clue, just curious. Yes....they have standardized everything. They only counted spots prior to the 1950s or so. The fluxes, AP, and other metrics are much newer. From spots alone it appears this is the quietest the sun has been in about 200 years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Yes....they have standardized everything. They only counted spots prior to the 1950s or so. The fluxes, AP, and other metrics are much newer. From spots alone it appears this is the quietest the sun has been in about 200 years.What evidence is there that sunspots were observed 200 years ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I was heading west on Highway 14 this evening and the solar seemed pretty D**n strong to me. Sunglasses and visor were deployed out of necessity. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Why are you choosing mostly Nino years? I think your forecast is extremely pessimistic and has little chance of verifying, but we'll see.Because the system state is closer to that of an El Niño that a La Niña? There should be no La Niña analogs used this winter, period. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 What evidence is there that sunspots were observed 200 years ago? The graphs are available online. They actually go back more than 200 years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Because the system state is closer to that of an El Niño that a La Niña? There should be no La Niña analogs used this winter, period. Warm neutral seems reasonable. Historically a very good ENSO state for us. It's really a stretch to call this Ninoish. Right now the MJO is in Nina territory. This is classic neutral. As I pointed out before the all important OLR 160W to 160E is actually Ninaish right now and has been for a while. We have serious mixed signals. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Warm neutral seems reasonable. Historically a very good ENSO state for us. It's really a stretch to call this Ninoish. Right now the MJO is in Nina territory. This is classic neutral. As I pointed out before the all important OLR 160W to 160E is actually Ninaish right now and has been for a while. We have serious mixed signals.Except it’s not.. The strongest positive OLR anomalies have been located over the Maritime continent, with the lowest OLR anomalies over the WHEM/EPAC. The reason there have been so many positive OLR anomalies from 100E to 150W this autumn is because the Walker Circulation has been much weaker than normal, which has reduced uplift over the IPWP domain. This is partially due to the super +IOD (which may have climaxed..we’ll have to see). Again, it’s about the *spatial distribution* of the anomalies, relatively speaking. Not their values..it matters where they are occurring relative to one another and where the gradients are. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Wxstatman is gonna have a ton of write-ups to do after this fall/winter. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Kyle Dittmer has real data as it pertains to sunspots and La Nina...PNW weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2019 Report Share Posted October 28, 2019 Wxstatman is gonna have a ton of write-ups to do after this fall/winter. I think you're right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 After several record-breaking cold air masses across the West the past 6 weeks, now it's the East's turn: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/08/hundreds-records-could-fall-next-weeks-impressively-cold-snap/ Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 After several record-breaking cold air masses across the West the past 6 weeks, now it's the East's turn: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/08/hundreds-records-could-fall-next-weeks-impressively-cold-snap/It was chilly this morning (21*F @ IAD was the coldest this early since the 19*F in 1976) but unless we can decouple next week, it’ll be tough to beat the numbers Nov 2014 eventually put up. We suck at early season cold more than most places, so I’m always bearish until the winter solstice. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 9, 2019 Report Share Posted November 9, 2019 It was chilly this morning (21*F @ IAD was the coldest this early since the 19*F in 1976) but unless we can decouple next week, it’ll be tough to beat the numbers Nov 2014 eventually put up. We suck at early season cold more than most places, so I’m always bearish until the winter solstice. I didn't realize that was so impressive in your area. Definitely one of the most anomalous cold air masses in recent decades, and affected a huge area. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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