July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Mmmmmmmmm... gyrations.

[TT-SEA]

Quite sunny here now and 72.

[Jesse]

Could be. I think part of that bust was the Eurasian monsoonal initiation which tends to incur gyrations in the state predictability through the Pacific conduits.

 

Then again, you could argue for poorly resolved intraseasonal modes (Indo-Pacific barrier/various model biases/limitations, etc) which could lead to a similar outcome this time, or a significantly shortened duration.

 

Hard to know. But you generally would not expect a strong ridge in the West for a prolonged period of time if divergence is clearly centered in the EHEM. In this case it’s admittedly more complicated with a muted background state and weak MJO with little in the way of interhemispheric homogeneity in spite of a straightforward line of communication (rapid CCKW cycles and phase changes stand out the most on the subseasonal scale).

Any early thoughts on phall, Fil?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quite sunny here now and 72.

 

Bask in it and make sure you commemorate the event so we are all well-aware of your enjoyment of it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

PDX only made it down to 63 last night which is a +5 departure from the normal low.

[TT-SEA]

Bask in it and make sure you commemorate the event so we are all well-aware of your enjoyment of it.

 

 

Eugene has the best weather on the planet in the warm season... make sure we all know that.  

 

Side note... I actually agree with you on that.  

[Deweydog]

IT’S ALMOST 1:10!!!!

[TT-SEA]

No change on the 12Z EPS... ridging starts building in around 7/22.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eugene has the best weather on the planet in the warm season... make sure we all know that.  

 

Side note... I actually agree with you on that.  

 

We pay for it by being way more at the mercy of upper-level conditions for goodies in the cold season. Need a strong cross-Cascade gradient/mountain wave event a lot of times to get a good snowstorm, which was notably absent for a lot of the 2000s.  The 2010s have been a lot better but most years you pull out of a hat have less than an inch of snow.

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, EPS.

[Jesse]

The last 6 summers featured a lot of 98 / 60 type days with thick smoke and haze which I would (and did) describe as far from ideal.

You would think it is for many. A lot of gnashing of teeth over the absence of that weather being the default this summer so far.

[Jesse]

We pay for it by being way more at the mercy of upper-level conditions for goodies in the cold season. Need a strong cross-Cascade gradient/mountain wave event a lot of times to get a good snowstorm, which was notably absent for a lot of the 2000s. The 2010s have been a lot better but most years you pull out of a hat have less than an inch of snow.

Almost every sentence in this paragraph is inaccurate in some way.

[TT-SEA]

You would think it is for many. A lot of gnashing of teeth over the absence of that weather being the default this summer so far.

 

Strawman! 

 

I just want a little sun.   It normally does not take a 594 ridge to get some sun here in July.   But if that is what it takes this year... then so be it. 

 

The troughy pattern during the last weekend of June was perfect.   But the troughing this month has been pretty dark and gloomy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Almost every sentence in this paragraph is inaccurate in some way.

 

What do you think would be a more accurate way to say we pay for it more during the cold season?  I guess putting it a different way, feels to me like we have less snow than up there and in W Wa.  It's as if we are further south and don't have a useful cold air source (Columbia Gorge or Fraser Valley) nearby.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

F*ck you, Jesse.

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, Jesse.

Go f*ck myself?

[Jesse]

What do you think would be a more accurate way to say we pay for it more during the cold season? I guess putting it a different way, feels to me like we have less snow than up there and in W Wa. It's as if we are further south and don't have a useful cold air source (Columbia Gorge or Fraser Valley) nearby.

You are about as far from the mouth of the Gorge as Seattle is from the mouth of the Fraser.

[Jesse]

Go f*ck myself?

Feels pretty backwards here, sometimes. Given the rhetoric lately you’d think we have just suffered through six of the coolest and wettest summers on record.

[Deweydog]

Feels pretty backwards here, sometimes. Given the rhetoric lately you’d think we have just suffered through six of the coolest and wettest summers on record.

So much upsettedness to be upset about and so little time...

[ShawniganLake]

Raining here. Light showers occasionally breaking to bright sunshine. Bipolar and about 75F.

[Jesse]

So much upsettedness to be upset about and so little time...

It is what it is. You’d be singing a different tune too if the roles were reversed. But the deck will always be stacked in the favor of warm lovers these days, yet they will still play the perennial victims. Human nature I guess.

[TacomaWaWx]

It is what it is. You’d be singing a different tune too if the roles were reversed. But the deck will always be stacked in the favor of warm lovers these days, yet they will still play the perennial victims. Human nature I guess.

we get an average summer and everything just goes crazy here lol.

[MossMan]

It's July 13th.

I know...Time is running out!

[TT-SEA]

we get an average summer and everything just goes crazy here lol.

I would be in heaven with this summer if we could even get the usual afternoon clearing that happens in an average summer.

 

But we had 18 out of 21 days that were completely cloudy. The afternoons were darker than the mornings on most days. That sucks... no way around it.

[Deweydog]

It is what it is. You’d be singing a different tune too if the roles were reversed. But the deck will always be stacked in the favor of warm lovers these days, yet they will still play the perennial victims. Human nature I guess.

Poor Jess...

 

Admittedly the cat may FINALLY be out of the bag about Tim overreacting to weather he doesn’t like.

[Jesse]

Poor Jess...

Admittedly the cat may FINALLY be out of the bag about Tim overreacting to weather he doesn’t like.

Double standard.

[Farmboy]

[Deweydog]

Double standard.

Yeah, you tend to overreact too, just not to the same degree. Yours is more about people’s attitudes toward that which doesn’t float your boat. Weenie self-absorption. It’s otay...

[Jesse]

Partly cloudy and 76 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You are about as far from the mouth of the Gorge as Seattle is from the mouth of the Fraser.

So does that change the fact that we are more at the mercy of the upper-level conditions down here as opposed to Seattle?

 

81F in downtown Springfield.

[TacomaWaWx]

I would be in heaven with this summer if we could even get the usual afternoon clearing that happens in an average summer.

 

But we had 18 out of 21 days that were completely cloudy. The afternoons were darker than the mornings on most days. That sucks... no way around it.

We’ve definitely had a few more of those than normal. I think it may have been worse where you live at than here. We’ve had a good number of mostly cloudy days that we’rent too bad but a few that were completely cloudy. Overall I’ve liked this summer but I do agree I wish there was a few more sunny days. It is only July 13th though it’s still early.

[TT-SEA]

We’ve definitely had a few more of those than normal. I think it may have been worse where you live at than here. We’ve had a good number of mostly cloudy days that we’rent too bad but a few that were completely cloudy. Overall I’ve liked this summer but I do agree I wish there was a few more sunny days. It is only July 13th though it’s still early.

Not early. Summer is flying by as usual... and so far its been a depressing crapfest here since the official astronomical start.

 

Its improving now though.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Raining here. Light showers occasionally breaking to bright sunshine. Bipolar and about 75F.

 

Nothing here, though it feels a bit humid, currently 77F. The ICON has been showing another fairly widespread rain event on Monday:

 

[Jesse]

Nothing here, though it feels a bit humid, currently 77F. The ICON has been showing another fairly widespread rain event on Monday:

 

 

Would like to see that verify.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing here, though it feels a bit humid, currently 77F. The ICON has been showing another fairly widespread rain event on Monday:

 

The ICON usually runs ridiculously wet. But in scrolling through the ECMWF maps earlier... I was surprised to see some rain in places on Monday with warm temps.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not early. Summer is flying by as usual... and so far its been a depressing crapfest here since the official astronomical start.

 

Its improving now though.

Were only halfway through the summer there’s still all of August and September can be pretty nice too. There’s going to be some nice weather at some point.

[TT-SEA]

Were only halfway through the summer there’s still all of August and September can be pretty nice too. There’s going to be some nice weather at some point.

 

I know all of that. But its not early now.

 

And having the longest days of the year be so dark also sucked... big time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice day! Here's the current temperatures at 4pm.

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice day! Here's the current temperatures at 4pm.

 

And absolutely gorgeous here as well. This type of troughy pattern is way better here than what we saw last weekend. Its much more favorable in this area to have the trough centered offshore. Then its about the same here as everywhere else.

 

Currently 78 and mostly sunny with some decorative cumulus clouds floating around.