PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Wow. Check out how similar the pattern evolution was in late April/early May 1957.  

Almost have to include it as an interseasonal frequency analog.

FWIW, 1957 was also coming off a 3 year -ENSO and was in the run-up to solar maximum. And was a niño that developed out of the EPAC during a -PDO/-NPMM.

Dang. Always wary of including old analogs, but will make an exception for this one. It’s a surprisingly close match, all things considered.

[Phil]

Solar maximum probably 12-18 months out at most. Both solar polar fields on the verge of reversing, will then have a southward pointing mean IMF.

 

[Phishy Wx]

18 hours ago, Cloud said:

This is some crazy stuff at Augusta National. Wind blew down 3 trees simultaneously. Fortunately no one got hurt…. Very very lucky !

 

Loblolly Pine widowmakers.  Similar to the Ponderosas around here.  Actually I think the Longleaf Pines in the SE are more similar to Ponderosas.

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Solar maximum probably 12-18 months out at most. Both solar polar fields on the verge of reversing, will then have a southward pointing mean IMF.

 

How much do mins and maxs actually effect temperatures?

[Slushy Inch]

There’s got to be some convective showers around Tuesday and Wednesday from this deep trough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

FWIW, 1957 was also coming off a 3 year -ENSO and was in the run-up to solar maximum. And was a niño that developed out of the EPAC during a -PDO/-NPMM.

Dang. Always wary of including old analogs, but will make an exception for this one. It’s a surprisingly close match, all things considered.

What followed was a pretty crappy winter here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a pretty classic spring pattern coming up. Cloudy and 50 here. 3.05” of precip so far on the month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a pretty hefty step back for the ridgy period on the 12z runs.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy and 51 after a low of 44. Cloud deck is dark and uniform but high enough where you can see most higher peaks. Lots of snow up there. Always like days with these sky conditions.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a pretty hefty step back for the ridgy period on the 12z runs.

I wouldn’t be surprised. I’ll wait for EPS before thinking much of it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I wouldn’t be surprised. I’ll wait for EPS before thinking much of it.

We’ll get some ridging next weekend but at this point it’s looking more like the shortwave, transitory variety than the long wave stuff that really digs its heels in. Of course things can always change again.

[Cascadia_Wx]

At any rate, even though the are both less ridgy, the way the GFS and the Euro handle the 500mb pattern are pretty different.

[ShawniganLake]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

Speaking of which, I’m honestly shocked we didn’t lose power last Saturday. Gusts to near hurricane force for 90 minutes and the lights didn’t even flicker. Could see a bunch of transformers popping in the distance but none affected us, apparently.

And to top it off, we were the only house that didn’t have noticeable roof damage. The street/yards were littered with shingles from neighbors’ houses but I don’t think we lost any. And no tree damage either.

Maybe it’s ma’ nature’s compensation for a handing me a crap winter and a 6+ month long ridgefest?  

What kind of crappy shingles do you guys use out there. Pretty easy to find ones rated for 90-130mph winds. 

[Cold Snap]

32 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

There’s got to be some convective showers around Tuesday and Wednesday from this deep trough.

Looks like low snow levels as well. Though probably not much below 1000 feet.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I wouldn’t be surprised. I’ll wait for EPS before thinking much of it.

00Z EPS didn't show much ridging... and 12Z won't either.   There is no way that pattern with the trough digging way south offshore is going to happen.    Models completely failed last week for this weekend... and this is the same error.   

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. Euro is struggling right now.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What kind of crappy shingles do you guys use out there. Pretty easy to find ones rated for 90-130mph winds. 

Mostly asphalt, a couple with cedar shake. Age of the roof is probably a factor, as those ratings are only guaranteed for a certain period of time.

Moisture and rapid temperature changes will also expedite degradation, and this climate has both of those in a major way.

[Phil]

12z EPS firmly on team Jesse now.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mostly asphalt, a couple with cedar shake. Age of the roof is probably a factor, as those ratings are only guaranteed for a certain period of time.

Moisture and rapid temperature changes will also expedite degradation, and this climate has both of those in a major way.

Kind of surprised you guys have cedar out there.  Used to be super common here but barely used anymore.  Metal is the way to go if you got the money. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS firmly on team Jesse now.

Well crap.  I definitely jinxed it

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS firmly on team Jesse now.

It never showed that strong ridge.   Not much of a change.   And that crazy ridging set up was never real.   But the EPS does slowly retrograde and deamplify the pattern which is probably the most likely scenario for the next couple of weeks.   

[Phil]

That cutoff ULL diving straight south out of the western arctic/AK never sat well with me. Have seen guidance erroneously do that every spring for 3+ years now, with the GFS by far the biggest offender.

Theoretically it’s possible, but my brain doesn’t like it. The EPS seems to be backing off that idea now as well. Though still would be a warmer/wetter pattern for northern folks.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS firmly on team Jesse now.

I wasn’t against the idea of some warmer days next weekend. We were planning an overnighter at the coast. Then again it’s not the end of the world. We’ll adapt. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I don’t usually interpret the smoothing of anomalies in the long range as any sort of signal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty cloudy day, could be our first dry day of the month, radar shows a few light showers cruising around though!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Filtered sunshine out there now. Looks like there’s a good chance PDX sees their first 60 of the month today.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Kind of surprised you guys have cedar out there.  Used to be super common here but barely used anymore.  Metal is the way to go if you got the money. 

Cedar Shake is flimsy af, though. Our previous roof was cedar shake and it was hemorrhaging shingles within the decade. The 2012 derecho was the fatal blow (pun intended). Rapid failure started after that.

The house across the street got a new cedar shake roof back around 2013 and it already needs to be replaced, especially after last weekend.

Won’t ever consider cedar shake again. Replaced ours with high quality asphalt in 2015 and so far haven’t had issues. A couple of stray singles at most.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t usually interpret the smoothing of anomalies in the long range as any sort of signal.

Almost every EPS run in the last 2 months has shown more significant troughing over the west in the 10-15 day period.   Pretty much permanently blue at that range on most runs for a long time.   

I am not predicting anything other than the strong ridging won't happen.  But the pattern shown on the EPS the last few runs in the long range is quite a bit different than what it has been showing.    Just a matter of fact... might not mean anything.

[MossMan]

Light rain and 46. Just got done mowing right before it started. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little glacier hanging in by the garden. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. Could be another troughy pattern around Hitler’s birthday. #HBT
 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Baby isn’t allowing for any sleep at night…. Need a good snowstorm/nightshift to keep me occupied at night 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Baby isn’t allowing for any sleep at night…. Need a good snowstorm/nightshift to keep me occupied at night 

Let’s nightshift the Easter Sunday rain event. 12z Euro looking solid. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ugly out this afternoon. Shoveling gravel in the pouring rain.   I guess it’s a good thing though, we could use the precip up here. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Enjoy. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ugly out this afternoon. Shoveling gravel in the pouring rain.   I guess it’s a good thing though, we could use the precip up here. 

I know someone who's enjoying it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Could be another troughy pattern around Hitler’s birthday. #HBT
 

Earth DAY 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Earth DAY 

Gaia REJOICE  

[ShawniganLake]

52 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I know someone who's enjoying it.

Tim?

[Phil]

GFS not giving up on the cutoff yet.