PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting that the 18Z GFS last Friday looked almost exactly the same for this weekend as the run today looks for next weekend.    I am much more skeptical than I would normally be with good model consensus.    Even the the EPS last Friday showed solid ridging for this weekend.    Could be a situation of rushing the pattern change and this time it will happen... or it could be some issue with this pattern that is causing the models to be fooled and it will slowly disappear as it gets closer.   

 

Possible indeed.

[LowerGarfield]

Good Friday weather here has been about 50F nearly all day. Very consistent. It's not cold but nowhere as pleasant as yesterday. Going to church soon and my son will do an egg hunt at our house with our neighbors. They come to our house because the neighbors have three dogs who leave their business all over that yard. My wife puts $2 bills in the eggs so the older kids enjoy it too.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here it comes. Looks like there could be some gusty winds too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Super ridge. My hiking shoes and fishing rod are ready for you.

I would love to do those things, but all the forests burned down. They just announced Little North Fork road will be closed for the 3rd straight summer after the cataclysmic Beachie Creek Fire.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are out of control Ken. I LOVE IT! Great content! 

[Tyler Mode]

7th day of April, 4th day of hail this month.

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are out of control Ken. I LOVE IT! Great content! 

Lol, thank you. If I had the money, I would love to storm chase...lol. It's just some heavy rain. I really thought I could see some lightning

[Cloud]

This is some crazy stuff at Augusta National. Wind blew down 3 trees simultaneously. Fortunately no one got hurt…. Very very lucky !

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

7th day of April, 4th day of hail this month.

So crazy. April is usually one of our quietest months for hail.

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would love to do those things, but all the forests burned down. They just announced Little North Fork road will be closed for the 3rd straight summer after the cataclysmic Beachie Creek Fire.  

I don’t fish much, but have managed to get at least a couple hikes a month in all winter. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So crazy. April is usually one of our quietest months for hail.

I sense the sarcasm. Still good numbers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t fish much, but have managed to get at least a couple hikes a month in all winter. 

I personally don't enjoy hiking unless it is at least 320 Kelvin. 

[Tyler Mode]

40 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So crazy. April is usually one of our quietest months for hail.

July is much quieter.  1 day in 27 years of records!  April average 1.6/year for April.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not this time.   I am genuinely confused.  But that is nothing new.  

Explain what this map shows in the west like you are explaining it to a child.   I am trying to figure it out.

Same color code as your typical 500mb map. Was just messing with you a bit.

Shading in tropical region represents OLR anomalies. Countours are 200mb geopotential height anomalies.

[Phil]

Yeah the more I look at the operational GFS the more confident I am it’s overdone with that +TNH pattern. There’s just no way.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

This is some crazy stuff at Augusta National. Wind blew down 3 trees simultaneously. Fortunately no one got hurt…. Very very lucky !

 

That’s the system that blew through here yesterday. Met severe criteria imby, did not expect it at all.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting that the 18Z GFS last Friday looked almost exactly the same for this weekend as the run today looks for next weekend.    I am much more skeptical than I would normally be with good model consensus.    Even the the EPS last Friday showed solid ridging for this weekend.    Could be a situation of rushing the pattern change and this time it will happen... or it could be some issue with this pattern that is causing the models to be fooled and it will slowly disappear as it gets closer.   

 

This looks locked in. Could get the garden in early this year. 

[Omegaraptor]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I personally don't enjoy hiking unless it is at least 320 Kelvin. 

They don’t want you to know this, but these signs in Death Valley are only up to thin out crowds during ideal hiking weather. 

[Olive1010]

Wow so much for that band of showers/storms. No precip north of hillsboro oregon.

[ShawniganLake]

Spectacular day here.  Mostly sunny and breezy 

[TT-SEA]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Same color code as your typical 500mb map. Was just messing with you a bit.

Shading in tropical region represents OLR anomalies. Countours are 200mb geopotential height anomalies.

So straight answer... what does that map show for the western US?

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the system that blew through here yesterday. Met severe criteria imby, did not expect it at all.

You have weak crappy trees over there. 

[MossMan]

Starlink went down worldwide for about 40 minutes…Users went nuts! Loved seeing some of the memes on FB though! People lost their minds! At least I didn’t have to replace the cable for the 3rd time like I thought might have been the problem at first. 

[MossMan]

54/47 on the day. Currently 47.

.33” on the day, 1.26” for the month. 
Was a sunny afternoon. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah the more I look at the operational GFS the more confident I am it’s overdone with that +TNH pattern. There’s just no way.

It's already happening.

[BLI snowman]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's already happening.

Summer from Hell Part X opens on Tax Day.

Edited April 8, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Anti Marine Layer]

This describes some people here

 

For January, I still got my ugly sweater
From last Christmas, which was white
For me the colder outside the better
As the evenings become more bright

February arrives with freezing rain
Which makes driving quite a chore
But anything warmer would be a pain
It's those dark gray days I most adore

March comes in roaring like a lion
With damaging winds and lowland snow
As long as it's chilly I won't be crying
Thick clouds above and gloom below

April starts dry, it's not a fluke
With three sunny days over 65
This warm weather makes me want to puke
In such awful conditions I cannot thrive

May is full of drizzle and gray
And while most are wishing for some sun
I savor each dark and misty day
It's oh so great to go for a run

June has lots of late season rain
People all around the weather deplore
But as water begins to clog my drain
I cannot help but root for more

July arrives with one last storm
But on the 4th the sun comes out
Sunny weather should now be the norm
And till late September I will only pout

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ghastly 18z GFs. At least the ensembles don’t agree.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 56/48 day here. That line of afternoon showers didn’t amount to much but did make for some dramatic skies and brief heavy rain.

[FroYoBro]

I have a feeling things might start changing when Jesus returns on Sunday. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

So straight answer... what does that map show for the western US?

It shows what it says it shows. Ridging in W/NW Canada and troughing/ULL activity over the SW states. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

You have weak crappy trees over there. 

Lol. Yours are crappier given how often you lose power.

[Phil]

Speaking of which, I’m honestly shocked we didn’t lose power last Saturday. Gusts to near hurricane force for 90 minutes and the lights didn’t even flicker. Could see a bunch of transformers popping in the distance but none affected us, apparently.

And to top it off, we were the only house that didn’t have noticeable roof damage. The street/yards were littered with shingles from neighbors’ houses but I don’t think we lost any. And no tree damage either.

Maybe it’s ma’ nature’s compensation for a handing me a crap winter and a 6+ month long ridgefest?  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's already happening.

Are you back from the future?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the 00z goes back to a more progressive pattern pretty quickly. Nice to see.

[Phil]

Wow. Check out how similar the pattern evolution was in late April/early May 1957.  

Almost have to include it as an interseasonal frequency analog.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow. Check out how similar the pattern evolution was in late April/early May 1957.  

Almost have to include it as an interseasonal frequency analog.

Pattern terminates with that ULL/STJ plowing into SoCal, undercutting the ridge, which subsequently decays. FWIW.

I bet that’s what happens this year, too.

[The Blob]

Looks like I missed out on that front earlier.

[MossMan]

Windy all night and continues to be. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

No more Easter ridge