PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Starting to see the models catch on to the pattern change coming after mid month. 

A major pattern change this weekend seemed very likely not too many days ago.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

That would be interesting. Certainly appears the 500mb pattern will be very different this year even if the outcome is another warm JJA (overall).

In general... a ULL pattern in the SW will favor warm anomalies in particular for western WA and SW BC.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A major pattern change this weekend seemed very likely not too many days ago.

How many times have we seen the models rush a pattern change to cold?   Happens all the time.   

And technically the pattern this weekend is quite a bit different than what we have seen lately.   This is still a pattern change even if it does not mean a big change in our local weather yet.

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In general... a ULL pattern in the SW will favor warm anomalies in particular for western WA and SW BC.

Was your area warm in May-June 2011? It feels like we are in for a repeat of that year. We had cold upper level lows swing through California every week in those months with snow all the way through June here in Tahoe

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F with some showers. Really nice stretch of cool and wet weather.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Was your area warm in May-June 2011? It feels like we are in for a repeat of that year. We had cold upper level lows swing through California every week in those months with snow all the way through June here in Tahoe

May 2011 was probably the most anomalously cold month of the 21st century so far for the PNW. Along with maybe February 2019 and October 2019.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Was your area warm in May-June 2011? It feels like we are in for a repeat of that year. We had cold upper level lows swing through California every week in those months with snow all the way through June here in Tahoe

Definitely not warm up here those months.   Will have to look up the pattern those months.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Was your area warm in May-June 2011? It feels like we are in for a repeat of that year. We had cold upper level lows swing through California every week in those months with snow all the way through June here in Tahoe

Would love that!!!

[TT-SEA]

Some crazy ULL scenarios in May and June 2011... and not just in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

2011 was also not a Nino transition year.  My guess is that May and June end up significantly warmer than in 2011... but that does not mean July and August are going to be hot this year.  

[the_convergence_zone]

Just hit 0.25" thanks to the precip rates picking up in the central Sound over the last hour or two. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Just hit 0.25" thanks to the precip rates picking up in the central Sound over the last hour or two. 

Raining harder here too... cloud bases are high and the sky is fairly bright but it's definitely raining now and not just sprinkling.    And really smells good out there... just noticed that when I let the dog out.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 53.2 with 0.11” so far today.

[Phil]

Wow, legit severe-criteria storm here. Did not expect it.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

'tis the season for wx bickery 

Always that season!!

[Deweydog]

Wet cummute!

[TacomaWx]

53/43 today with 0.26” of rain. Up to 0.89” MTD. My boss was disappointed in my weather forecast it barely rained at all up In Redmond

[Phil]

New EPS weeklies aren’t bullish on a prolonged warmup. Curious to see how this one trends in closing.

[Phil]

GEPS mean looks reasonable IMO. Vague but can make out the phase-8/+ENSO vibe to the pattern.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEPS mean looks reasonable IMO. Vague but can make out the phase-8/+ENSO vibe to the pattern.

Absolutely no variability in NW Utah and SE Idaho.   

[Phil]

On 4/4/2023 at 2:24 PM, Omegaraptor said:

 

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

New EPS weeklies aren’t bullish on a prolonged warmup. Curious to see how this one trends in closing.

Any warm spell beyond 3 days would be impressive.   Not even a thought it would be long lasting. 

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

Yeah at this point I will believe a pattern change when I see it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

This pattern makes me just want to pack up all my Billie Eilish posters and drive until I see my first date palm

[Phil]

Ouch.

Maybe we can reverse this late month. At least temporarily?

 

[Phil]

EPS weeklies’ VP200 anoms more El Niño like this run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ouch.

Maybe we can reverse this late month. At least temporarily?

 

At least you don't live in Pennsylvania.

[Phishy Wx]

43 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This pattern makes me just want to pack up all my Billie Eilish posters and drive until I see my first date palm

Redding?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Redding?

I think he was thinking Phoenix dactylifera, not Phoenix canariensis.

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think he was thinking Phoenix dactylifera, not Phoenix canariensis.

so Palm Springs?

[Cascadia_Wx]

51/44 day here. Over a half inch of rainfall and still coming down. Very nice.

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

51/44 day here. Over a half inch of rainfall and still coming down. Very nice.

Get out that hammock

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This pattern makes me just want to pack up all my Billie Eilish posters and drive until I see my first date palm

Pretty good one Jess Billie sure does look grumpy sometimes lol but she has a pretty voice sorry about your mariners off to a rough start but it’s a long season and they’ll heat up as the weather does lol how about that Tim you two sure get each other’s goad don’t worry about it too much I hope you sleep well tonight ttyl stay dry lol

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty good one Jess Billie sure does look grumpy sometimes lol but she has a pretty voice sorry about your mariners off to a rough start but it’s a long season and they’ll heat up as the weather does lol how about that Tim you two sure get each other’s goad don’t worry about it too much I hope you sleep well tonight ttyl stay dry lol

Poor Jesse.   Always the flame throwing victim.   

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It has drizzled, but still no measurable rain from this. Maybe as it pushes through I get something

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful memory of my youth. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has drizzled, but still no measurable rain from this. Maybe as it pushes through I get something

That’s ruff 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s raining. 24 hours now. Pretty lite 

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s raining. 24 hours now. Pretty lite 

Sounds like California this past winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful memory of my youth. 

Almost as beautiful as your soul Andrew