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PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

Cascadia_Wx

By Cascadia_Wx
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by iFred,

We had an incident earlier today due to someone having a compromised account. If you're reading this but can't log in, create a new account and make sure your password isn't something that I can Google search for.
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Port Angeles Foothiller
Port Angeles Foothiller

Aurora IMBY, 4:00 am  

SouthHillFrosty
SouthHillFrosty

Meet junior Frosty 

BlvuSumit
BlvuSumit

About 2” here at 1170’ Bellevue. April surprise just back from Austin TX

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Tax Day is 4/18 this year.   And it does not look that cold.   Side note even the traditional Tax Day of 4/15 is not that cold (second image).   Troughing much farther west than the crazy 00Z run yesterday.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1819200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1603200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tax Day is 4/18 this year.   And it does not look that cold.   Side note even the traditional Tax Day of 4/15 is not that cold (second image).   Troughing much farther west than the crazy 00Z run yesterday.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1819200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1603200.png

That’s just GFS ULL silliness though.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s just GFS ULL silliness though.

Of course.   But the 12Z EPS looked very similar with troughing offshore for that time frame.   Also probably not worth talking about notches at 13 days out when there many different troughs in different places on each run and we can't even tell which trough we are tracking.    Unless your goal is trolling.  😀

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Phil said:

88.3°F here today.😪 Frogs are loving it though.

Warmer than it got at any point here last summer.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Still dry here this morning... but light rain at the doorstep now.   

06Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS still show dry conditions on Saturday (except on the WA coast).   GFS shows totally dry on Sunday as well from Portland southward and just a little light rain farther north.    ECMWF is less sharp with incoming front and shows light rain across all of western WA and OR by afternoon... but did trend a little slower again.    

Farther out... that incoming trough on Sunday looks like it morphs into a ULL moving down the west coast rather than moving inland like previous runs showed.  

Also interesting that the upper Midwest is going to go straight from endless winter to very warm for the foreseeable future.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted

It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. 

Once you start battling Tim on this opportunity will arise. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. 

Offshore flow is a rain killer in King and Pierce Counties.   It's going to rain all day but just lightly for the most part.

I am hoping Sunday and Monday can deliver with a warmer air mass and more tropical moisture being pulled up... but it will probably depend on how fast the incoming trough cuts off.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Offshore flow is a rain killer in King and Pierce Counties.   It's going to rain all day but just lightly for the most part.

I am hoping Sunday and Monday can deliver with a warmer air mass and more tropical moisture being pulled up... but it will probably depend on how fast the incoming trough cuts off.

Yeah we will see how today goes…but I’d be surprised if we got 1/2” up here in Redmond. Earlier this week it looked like I may have to work over the weekend but I’m guessing I probably won’t since the rain doesn’t look like much. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once you start battling Tim on this opportunity will arise. 

Why does everything have to be a battle?  Seems like a couple of you are bored unless you are building strawmen and creating fictitious fights over something none of us control.   🙄

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Why does everything have to be a battle?  Seems like a couple of you are bored unless you are building strawmen and creating fictitious fights over something none of us control.   🙄

There’s always gotta be a scapegoat Timothy. I’m glad that you’ve taken the role in stride all of these years. Someone’s gotta be the villain 😊

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s always gotta be a scapegoat Timothy. I’m glad that you’ve taken the role in stride all of these years. Someone’s gotta be the villain 😊

That is the problem... always have to create a villian!   I take it in stride because it's just silly and meaningless and sort of entertaining.   😀

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

In other news... the super extended ECMWF was 1.25 notches (50 miles) west with the Flag Day trough.   Going to be tracking that one closely.   

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

It feels like the very cold pattern in April/May last year basically repeated in February/March this year.   Probably close to running its course soon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What does it show for July 22?

Warm and cold depending on your location and hemisphere. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course.   But the 12Z EPS looked very similar with troughing offshore for that time frame.   Also probably not worth talking about notches at 13 days out when there many different troughs in different places on each run and we can't even tell which trough we are tracking.    Unless your goal is trolling.  😀

Interestingly many of the EPS members have that ULL solution as well. So who knows. But it just doesn’t sit well with me, not a normal 500mb evolution at all. Not buying it yet.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It feels like the very cold pattern in April/May last year basically repeated in February/March this year.   Probably close to running its course soon.

I don’t think it’s the same pattern though? Last year had the forcing in the E-Hem/IPWP area thru boreal spring, and the mid latitude response to that varies seasonally and w/ QBO/low-freq z-cell modes.

Now it’s more WHEM/W-IO low pass and CCKW/shallow MJOs across the Pacific. Unlike last year, the greatest odds for troughing/ULL activity is in the SW US instead of the PNW.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think it’s the same pattern though? Last year had the forcing in the E-Hem/IPWP area thru boreal spring, and the mid latitude response to that varies seasonally and w/ QBO/low-freq z-cell modes.

Now it’s more WHEM/W-IO low pass and CCKW/shallow MJOs across the Pacific. Unlike last year, the greatest odds for troughing/ULL activity is in the SW US instead of the PNW.

Definitely different.   Last year the really cold pattern in April and May was also quite wet here.   This year the cold pattern has been dry up here with the ULL and troughing action focused to the south primarily in CA.  

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interestingly many of the EPS members have that ULL solution as well. So who knows. But it just doesn’t sit well with me, not a normal 500mb evolution at all. Not buying it yet.

Big picture seems to be troughing farther west and centered just offshore.    In general that is warmer and wetter here and quite different than what we have seen for the last 2 months.    

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm good with this as long as Sunday's storm actually brings me some D**n rain

No doubt.   We need some high dewpoint rainfall with a tropical connection.   

Right now it's sprinkling here with the sun clearly visible through the clouds.   Not making up any ground here with this system.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Port Angeles Foothiller Veteran

Port Angeles Foothiller

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt.   We need some high dewpoint rainfall with a tropical connection.   

Right now it's sprinkling here with the sun clearly visible through the clouds.   Not making up any ground here with this system.

I'm fully shadowed yet again. Might squeeze a few hundredths on the back end.

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted

Need more moisture in Eastern WA.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big picture seems to be troughing farther west and centered just offshore.    In general that is warmer and wetter here and quite different than what we have seen for the last 2 months.    

Makes dynamical sense during that timeframe, yes. But suspect it will play out closer to the CMC than the GFS. Might not even make a difference in observed weather out there, but it makes a difference for geeks like me. 😆 

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm good with this as long as Sunday's storm actually brings me some D**n rain

I would expect a pretty strong Olympic rain shadow during the day on Sunday under SW flow.  Might, hopefully for your area, fill in a bit late Sunday into Monday morning 

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted

KGEG needs to get to late April without a 60 burger to break the all time record.  and I think that record was just last year? lol.  I can't remember maybe it was the latest 50 last year or lastest 70.  We broke something last year and I'm too lazy to look right now.  going to get close this Sunday, I think 60 is forecast

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